Tuesday, April 7, 2020

COVID-19 Facts Timeline

Div tag


[Editor’s note:

This is a humble effort. I stand on the shoulders of giants.

The majority of the information contained herein can be traced back to www.instapundit.com, and, in particular, two fact-based summaries that I quote heavily from to get started. For references that may not have direct call-back to that site, I still probably got the idea to search for them from something I read there. A few things come from fellow-traveler sites. What I have done is streamline and focus this into a narrow feed concerned with the actions and some speech around CV19 in the U.S.A.

I have tried to be careful with quotes. If things are quoted, they are quoted directly from the linked source. If they are not quoted, it is safe to assume that this editor summarized the link.

I believe that actions outweigh speech in this age. But since speech is used to criticize actions, I have included some critical speech. In particular, I did not include the long list of stupid things Donald Trump and others have said during this journey, instead opting to include a few choice items. I may elect to include more in a future draft.

I have tried to not be political. But of course, in this mess, even the selection of what to include or omit is itself a political act. Beyond that, however, I’ve attempted to let the collection stand on its own.

This is a work in progress. --Editor, April 8, 2020]

Nov. 17, 2019: The earliest known case of the new coronavirus is traced to a 55-year-old Hubei man, according to the South China Morning Post, which says it reviewed unpublished data. “Of the first nine cases to be reported in November – four men and five women – none has been confirmed as being ‘patient zero’.” [Ed. note: entry added 4/9/2020.]

Dec 6, 2019: According to a study in The Lancet, the symptom onset date of the first patient identified was “Dec 1, 2019 . . . 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalized in the isolation ward.” [Editor: one can infer that Wuhan doctors were finding cases that indicated the virus was spreading from one human to another.]

Dec. 21, 2019: Wuhan doctors begin to notice a “cluster of pneumonia cases with an unknown cause.”

Dec. 25, 2019: Chinese medical staff in two hospitals in Wuhan are suspected of contracting viral pneumonia and are quarantined. [Ed.note: This is evidence of human-to-human transmission.]

Dec. 26, 2019: “Wuhan virus detected with 87% similarity to SARS. A medical lab received samples from Wuhan hospitals ‘and reached a stunning conclusion as early as the morning of Dec. 26. The samples contained a new corona virus with an 87 percent similarity to SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.’ This account will be revealed late in January 2020 by multiple unauthorized Chinese sources.” [Dec. 26 and 27 entries come from this excellent timeline.]

Dec. 27, 2019:
  • “Lab executives urgently brief Wuhan health officials. A day after discovering the new corona virus, “lab executives held urgent meetings to brief Wuhan health officials and hospital management,” according to a lab technician.
  • Officials order labs to suppress scientific findings. Chinese genomics scientists sequence the virus and discover a resemblance to SARS, but Chinese regime officials order them to surrender or destroy the virus samples. The regime suppresses the scientific findings. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) censors delete the news report of the destruction, revealed by Caixin Global, from the Chinese internet.” [Dec. 26 and 27 entries come from this excellent timeline.]
  • Sometime in “Late December”: Wuhan hospitals notice “an exponential increase” in the number of cases that cannot be linked back to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, according to the New England Journal of Medicine.

Dec. 30, 2019: Dr. Li Wenliang sends a message to a group of other doctors warning them about a possible outbreak of an illness that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), urging them to take protective measures against infection.

Dec. 31, 2019:

Jan. 1, 2020:

Jan. 2:

Jan. 3:

Jan. 4: “Director Redfield sends another email to George Gao, once again offering assistance.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 5: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission put out a statement with updated numbers of cases but repeated, “preliminary investigations have shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infections.” [Ed. note: See Dec. 25]

Jan 6:

Jan. 7:

Jan. 8:

Jan. 9:
  • China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.
  • “The CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) begin collaborating on a diagnostic test.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 10:
  • After unknowingly treating a patient with the Wuhan coronavirus, Dr. Li Wenliang started coughing and developed a fever. He was hospitalized on January 12. In the following days, Li’s condition deteriorated so badly that he was admitted to the intensive care unit and given oxygen support.
  • “China shares the viral sequence of the coronavirus. NIH scientists begin work on a vaccine.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan 11: “The first known coronavirus death is reported by Chinese state media.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 11–17:

Jan. 13:
  • First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China. (ScienceAlert)
  • “There are now 41 confirmed cases in China.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “A pharmaceutical manufacturer is given the viral sequence by NIH.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 14:
  • W.H.O. announces Chinese authorities have seen “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.”
    • [Ed. notes: W.H.O. was told about transmission by Taiwan (Dec. 31), but lied, probably at the request of the C.C.P.]
  • “The NSC begins holding daily Novel Coronavirus Policy Coordination Council meetings.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 15:
  • The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.
  • Pelosi refers the articles of impeachment to the Senate.

Jan. 16:
  • “Wuhan officials say health crisis is over, and encourage large public gatherings. Wuhan residents go to a government sponsored fair, citing government statements that the health crisis is over.” [Sourced via this excellent timeline.] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • “The Senate impeachment trial of President Trump officially begins.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 17:
  • The CDC began implementing public health entry screening at the three U.S.airports that received the most travelers from Wuhan. (ScienceAlert)
  • A second person, a 69-year-old man, dies in Wuhan, according to the authorities. (ScienceAlert)
  • 0“The CDC hosts its first telebriefing on the virus. Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), describes the coronavirus as ‘a serious situation’ and says it’s ‘crucial to be proactive and prepared.’” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The CDC posts interim coronavirus guidance for collecting, handling, and testing clinical specimens, and biosafety guidelines for laboratories. This guidance will be updated regularly over the course of the pandemic.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 18:

Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.

Jan. 20:

Jan. 21:
  • Dr. Fauci: “Well, obviously you need to take it seriously. And do the kinds of things that the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security are doing, but this is not a major threat for the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.”
  • The CDC activates its emergency operations center to provide support to the coronavirus response.
  • The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States.
  • C.C.P. flagship newspaper People’s Daily mentions the coronavirus epidemic and Xi’s actions to fight it for the first time.
  • China’s top political commission in charge of law and order warns that “anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of [virus] cases out of his or her own self-interest will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity.”
  • January 21: “The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services, begins market research calls with top diagnostics companies about developing diagnostics for the coronavirus.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • January 21: “In the second CDC telebriefing on the coronavirus, NCIRD director Dr. Messonnier says the CDC is ‘proactively preparing for an introduction of the virus here’ and reports that a CDC team has been deployed to Washington state.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • January 21: “The CDC publishes interim guidance on preventing the spread of the coronavirus in homes and other places.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 22:
  • Arkansas senator Tom Cotton sends a letter to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar encouraging the Trump administration to consider banning travel between China and the United States and warning that the Communist regime could be covering up how dangerous the disease really was.
  • “Central CCP authorities order an immediate quarantine of Wuhan, shutting off all train and aircraft travel. About 100,000 people leave Wuhan by train between the issuance of the order and the quarantine deadline.” [Sourced via this excellent timeline.] [Please note that this is after the lunar new year celebration.] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • “CDC Director Redfield writes in a memorandum that it was determined the coronavirus could become an infectious disease emergency very quickly. The memorandum is signed by HHS Secretary Azar, allowing HHS to request access from the Office of Management and Budget to $105 million in the Infectious Disease Rapid Response Reserve Fund.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “For the first time, an authorization application template is shared by the FDA with a diagnostic test developer.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “An interagency diagnostics working group is set up by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), which includes, BARDA, CDC, FDA, NIH, and the Department of Defense (DOD).” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Children referred from China are now screened by the HHS Office of Refugee Resettlement. Children potentially exposed to the coronavirus are quarantined for up to 14 days before placement in shelters.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The rules of the impeachment are approved by the Senate. Impeachment managers begin their three days of opening arguments.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 23:
  • Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown. Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.
  • “The CDC seeks a ‘special emergency authorization’ from the FDA to allow states to use their coronavirus test.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “ASPR convenes a Disaster Leadership Group (DLG) to coordinate strategies and countermeasures government-wide. The Trump administration begins discussions with manufacturers of N95 masks about more than doubling usual production.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 24–30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.

Jan. 24:
  • A paper appears in Lancet, authored by Chinese researchers and doctors, concluding “evidence so far indicates human transmission for 2019-nCoV. We are concerned that 2019-nCoV could have acquired the ability for efficient human transmission.”
  • China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan.
  • “Chinese CCP bans ‘group travel’ within China but still permits travel abroad. ‘But in a blunder that would have far reaching consequences, China did not issue an order suspending group travel to foreign countries until three days later, on Jan. 27,’ Japan’s Nikkei reports.” [Sourced via this excellent timeline.] [Ed. asks: group travel?] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • The C.D.C. says that it has developed a sophisticated diagnostic test and has sought F.D.A. permission to send it to public labs around the country. (NY Times)
    • “The CDC’s assay for the coronavirus is shared publicly. This design can now be used by the global community to develop their own assays.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), whose husband is the chairman and CEO of the New York Stock Exchange, began selling off more than a million dollars in stocks on the same day as the closed-door Senate meeting on Friday, Jan. 24.
  • “Impeachment managers conclude their opening arguments on both articles of impeachment.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Three government-wide task forces are formed by ASPR: (1) healthcare system capacity and resilience, (2) development of medical countermeasures, and (3) supply chains.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The second confirmed U.S. case of the coronavirus is confirmed in Illinois by the CDC.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Dr. Messonnier reports during the third CDC-hosted telebriefing that more cases of the coronavirus are expected in the United States via travel and human-to-human transmission.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan 25:
  • “President Trump’s legal defense begins opening arguments in the impeachment trial.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Secretary Azar notifies Congress of his intention to use $105 million from the Infectious Disease Rapid Response Reserve Fund.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan 26:
  • “There are now five confirmed cases in the United States.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “ASPR’s three task forces hold their first meetings.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan 27:
  • VP Mike Pence outlines the administration’s efforts to work with China to counter coronavirus.
  • China suspends ‘group travel’ in and out of the country. [Sourced via this excellent timeline.] [Ed. asks: group travel?] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • “Secretary Azar discusses the coronavirus situation with China’s Minister of Health and World Health Organization Director-General Tedros.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Secretary Azar reports in a speech in Washington, D.C., that the Department of Health and Human Services is ‘proactively preparing for the arrival of the novel coronavirus on our shores,’ and that it poses a ‘serious public health threat.’” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Dr. Messonnier warns new travel recommendations are imminent and that the public health response may cause ‘some disruptions’ in Americans’ lives during the CDC-hosted telebriefing.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The CDC issues a Level 3 Travel Health Notice warning Americans to avoid nonessential travel to China.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Developers of vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics and other countermeasures for the coronavirus start receiving updates on the processes for approval and authorization.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Jay Butler, the CDC’s Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases, holds a conference call with the nation’s governors about the coronavirus.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The White House Coronavirus Task Force holds its first meeting.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 28:

Jan. 29:
  • “Flight carrying US citizens from Wuhan arrives in California, CDC says.” Jared Evans is on this flight, and describes (with video) his experience escaping from Wuhan on Jan. 31.]
  • “When you’re there, and there’s no transportation, no trains, no subways, no planes, the military is blocking off each and every aspect of the road, you think to yourself: ‘Is this real? Is this a movie? Is this a nightmare? What’s going on here?’ he told CNN.” “Evans had just five hours between being told he could board the flight back to the US and the flight taking off with or without him.” [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • “The White House publicly announces the formation of the Coronavirus Task Force. Trump chairs a meeting of the task force for the first time.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Dr. Messonier reports in the CDC-hosted telebriefing that no new cases of the coronavirus have been found in the United States, ‘despite an aggressive public health investigation.’” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The CDC posts recommendations for controlling and preventing coronavirus infection in healthcare settings.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The Chinese government acknowledges the offer of assistance of U.S. experts by HHS.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “A listening session hosted by ASPR, CDC, FDA, NIAID, and DOD is held with 1,468 industry representatives to discuss the development of medical countermeasures, health system preparedness, supply resilience, and medical surge needs.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “U.S. senators begin two days of questioning in the impeachment trial.”[Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan 30:
  • W.H.O. declared on January 30 the 2019-nCoV outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
  • The White House announces a coronavirus task force led by the health secretary, Alex M. Azar II. President Trump attends the group’s first meeting and tweets that the experts “are on top of it.” (NY Times, Daily Beast)
  • “The CDC confirms the first case of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in the United States.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The State Department issues a Level 4: Do Not Travel Health Advisory for all of China. The CDC issues their own warning, saying travelers should ‘avoid all nonessential travel to China.’” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The Trump Administration hosts a conference call with the nation’s governors, Secretary Azar, Director Redfield, Dr. Fauci, and others. The administration’s action plan for responding to the coronavirus outbreak is presented.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Budget officials in the Trump administration begin discussions on funding medical necessities for the outbreak, including medical supplies and equipment, supplying the ‘Strategic National Stockpile’ and aid for states.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “A coronavirus portal is launched by ASPR to facilitate requests from private industry interested in developing and/or manufacturing medical countermeasures.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Jan. 31:

Feb 1:
  • Presidential candidate Joe Biden calls out President Trump’s “record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering,” in response to Trump’s travel restrictions.
  • Dr. Li Wenliang tests positive for coronavirus. He dies from it six days later. [Ed. note: this is quite a heart-wrenching article with lots of evidence of how hard Dr. Li Wenliang worked to expose the truth.]

Feb. 2:
  • “The first death outside China is reported, coming from the Philippines.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Enhanced entry screening by the CDC is expanded to eight major airports.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb. 3:
  • “A CDC team is ready but waiting for permission from the Chinese government to enter the country.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Closing arguments in the Senate trial of President Trump are made.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Early Feb.:
  • Stanford University develops its own test for the coronavirus but runs into regulatory roadblocks at the F.D.A. (NY Times)
  • Univ. Washington: “‘We started, probably in earnest in mid-January, to prepare what we call a laboratory-developed test,’ Jerome said. It took a team at the lab, working under the direction of Alex Greninger, about two weeks to develop a working version.” They were shut down by FDA. (The New Yorker Magazine) [This is a fascinating and damning article about F.D.A. and C.D.C.]

Feb. 4:
  • The F.D.A. approves the C.D.C. test.
  • The Diamond Princess cruise ship is placed under quarantine in Japan because 10 people on board are diagnosed with the coronavirus.
  • Trump gives SOTU Address. “Protecting Americans’ health also means fighting infectious diseases. We are coordinating with the Chinese government and working closely together on the coronavirus outbreak in China. My administration will take all necessary steps to safeguard our citizens from this threat.” (Daily Wire) [Note: it surprisingly difficult to locate this quote on-line. Use DuckDuckGo instead of Google.]
  • WHO Director General: Don’t spread fear and stigma with travel bans. The Wuhan novel coronavirus has killed at least 427 people and infected 20,645 cases globally. There are two deaths outside mainland China. Quoting W.H.O.: “We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”
  • Chinese researchers publish in the journal Nature: “Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro.”
  • “The FDA is directed to step up coronavirus diagnostic testing procedures by the White House” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb. 5:
  • “Four chartered flights are evacuating US citizens from Wuhan this week. An official says they are likely the last.” This would bring the total number of flights evacuating U.S. citizens from China to five.
  • C.D.C. delivers faulty tests to labs around the country. “The void created by the C.D.C.’s faulty tests made it impossible for public-health authorities to get an accurate picture of how far and how fast the disease was spreading. In hotspots like Seattle, and probably elsewhere, COVID-19 spread undetected for several weeks, which in turn only multiplied the need for more tests.” (The New Yorker Magazine) [This is a fascinating and damning article about FDA and CDC.]
  • Also damning of the C.D.C.: Nevertheless, for at least two weeks after the problem became clear, alternative paths to testing were either neglected or stymied by existing regulations.
  • The Senate votes to clear Trump on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
  • “In a public statement, the CDC reports they believed the immediate risk of coronavirus exposure in the United States is low, and that they are ‘undertaking measures to help keep that risk low.’” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia begins hearings on the coronavirus.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb 6:
  • NY Times: Doctors in Washington State gave remdesivir to the first coronavirus patient in the United States last week after his condition worsened and pneumonia developed when he’d been in the hospital for a week. His symptoms improved the next day.
  • “The CDC begins shipping CDC-Developed coronavirus test kits to domestic and international labs.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020. These are faulty and contaminated -- see Feb 12.]

Feb 9:
  • Masks not yet in our culture: “Take off that facemask: You’re not protecting yourself from coronavirus”. (MSN)
  • Chair of New York City Council Health Committee (Mr. Mark Levine) tweets “In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC’s Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of "be strong Wuhan!")
  • “Governors are briefed by the White House Coronavirus Task Force briefed at the National Governors’ Association Meeting in Washington.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb 10: NYC Mayor de Blasio encourages New Yorkers to go out and congregate. “If you’re under 50 & you’re healthy, which is most NYers, there’s very little threat here. This disease, even if you were to get it, basically acts like a common cold or flu. And transmission is not that easy,” de Blasio said at the time.

Feb 11: “ASPR expands their partnership with Janssen Research & Development to accelerate the development of a coronavirus vaccine.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb. 12:
  • The C.D.C. publicly discloses that its test kits aren’t working properly.
  • “The United States ships coronavirus testing kits to roughly 30 countries.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020. Ed. wonders if these kits are also faulty.]
  • “The CDC is still waiting for permission from the Chinese government to travel to China.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb. 13:
  • U.S. C.D.C. publishes a report detailing the cost of Chinese delays in travel restrictions, noting that political pressure to allow the lunar new year celebration to continue contributed. “At the time of the quarantine, China was already 2 weeks into the 40-day Spring Festival, during which residents and visitors make several billion trips throughout China to celebrate the Lunar New Year.” [Sourced via this excellent timeline.] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • “Our risk assessment identified several cities throughout China likely to be harboring yet undetected cases of COVID-19 a week after the quarantine, suggesting that early 2020 ground and rail travel seeded cases far beyond the Wuhan region under quarantine.” [Ed notes: not just within China.] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • Senator Dumped Up to $1.7 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness. Intelligence Chair Richard Burr’s selloff came around the time he was receiving daily briefings on the health threat.

Feb. 14:

Feb. 15: Anderson Cooper: “The risk is low. The risk, however, for the flu is through the roof!”

Feb. 17:
  • Asia Times Reports: “While Chinese President Xi Jinping was briefed about the public health threat by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) in early January, the government decided against sounding the alarm because it did not want to “mar the festive vibe” during the Lunar New Year celebrations. […] Posts circulating on WeChat and Weibo claim that a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, located in the provincial capital of Hubei, was the first to be infected by the novel coronavirus, now called Covid-19 by the World Health Organization. The female virologist and a graduate from the institute, referred to as “patient zero,” had never visited the city’s shambolic wet market – also known as the ‘zoo’ – where a range of wild animals were sold. The market has been identified by the authorities as the most probable source of the deadly pathogen.” [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • The W.H.O. now refers to the virus as COVID-19. [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020.]
  • “Dr. Fauci says that the risk of coronavirus infection in the United States is ‘minuscule.’” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Feb 18:

Feb 20:
  • [Editor and spouse buy two dozen N95 masks.]
  • “77,000 cases are confirmed worldwide, according to the W.H.O.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • South Korea finds first COVID-19 case. (https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/) [This is ed.’s primary source of data visualization for CV19.] Fifteen days later, growth of the disease in S. Korea was reduced to a 1.01 daily multiplier, with fewer than 7500 cases country-wide.
  • Instapundit links to a scary but thoughtful thread explaining that there may be more than one stage of CV19 infection, and the fifth stage looks like "re-infection" or relapse. “Stage 5) You get reinfected. But this time the virus is ***slightly different***. The body produces the same antibodies as before but this time this only makes things worse by assisting the virus to enter even immune cells.” [Ed. note: this reddit thread is being updated with new supporting evidence and scientific papers. But it is still very much a theory.] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/9/2020.]

Feb. 22:

Feb. 24:
  • The chief executive of the Association of Public Health Laboratories writes to the F.D.A. that “we are now many weeks into the response with still no diagnostic or surveillance test available outside of C.D.C. for the vast majority of our member laboratories.” (NY Times)
  • The head of the C.D.C. boasts to Congress about his agency’s “aggressive response” to screening. (NY Times)
  • “After praising Xi Jinping for his ‘transparency’, the [W.H.O.] instructs health care professionals worldwide NOT to say ‘Wuhan Virus’ or ‘Chinese Virus’.” CNN, NY Times, NBC and all others quickly fall in line. The Times will rename its world CV19 map on Mar. 10. President Trump is challenged by reporters for saying “Chinese Virus”. [Ed. notes: there is no evidence yet that the C.C.P. pressured or requested the W.H.O. to send its instruction. But there is ample evidence that China is working hard to deflect blame, up and including asserting that the virus came from the U.S.] [Ed. note: added this entry 4/22/2020, thanks to this excellent timeline.]

Feb 25:
  • Nancy Pelosi encourages Americans to come to SF Chinatown. “You should come to Chinatown,” Pelosi said. (NBC News)
  • February 25th, French research professor Didier Raoult​ M.D/Ph.D describes results of Chinese experiments with hydroxychloroquine in a video titled “Coronavirus: endgame!”
  • Mardi Gras in New Orleans.
  • “Secretary Azar discusses the Trump administration’s coronavirus response in testimony before the United States Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Late Feb.: “When the U.S. stock market was in the early stages of slipping on news of the coronavirus outbreak, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, began buying up tech stocks and stock options.” [Ed. note: I believe his is smart, not crooked.]

Feb. 26:
  • NY Times opinion piece: “Let’s Call It Trumpvirus”
  • [Editor and spouse buy 12 cases of breakfast bars (144 bars).]

Feb. 27: NY Times: “Is the White House starting to censor public-health officials?”

Feb. 28:
  • Trump likens the Democrats’ criticism of his administration’s response to the new coronavirus outbreak to their efforts to impeach him, saying “this is their new hoax.” (Snopes)
  • “Trump went on to praise his administration for taking ‘the most aggressive action in modern history to prevent the spread of this illness in the United States,’ referring to travel restrictions on foreign nationals who recently visited China.” (FactCheck.org)
  • The MSM immediately distorts the quote into Trump calling the virus a hoax. (Sources: Here, Another, And here, And here, “He initially called the coronavirus a ‘hoax’.”, Damage already done)

Feb. 29:
  • The F.D.A. relaxes its rules for some laboratories, allowing them to start testing before the agency has completed its approvals.
    • “The Trump administration rolls back Obama-era regulations in order to speed up coronavirus testing.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “‘I’ve never been muzzled and I’ve been doing this since Reagan,’ Dr. Fauci responded. ‘I am not being muzzled by this administration … I have not been muzzled at all. That was a real misrepresentation of what happened.’” 
  • Dr. Fauci on CNN State of the Union: “No, right now, at this moment, there is no need to change anything that you’re doing on a day by day basis.”
  • An arm of the State Department generates a report saying, “Roughly 2 million tweets peddled conspiracy theories about the coronavirus over the three-week period when the outbreak began to spread outside China. […] Some of the misinformation [sic] exhibited ‘evidence of inauthentic and coordinated activity,’ according to the report, raising the specter that foreign governments or other malicious actors may have deliberately tried to sow fear and discord about the international health emergency.” [H/T: this excellent timeline.]
  • “The first known death from the coronavirus is recorded in the United States.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The Trump administration suspends travel with Iran, bans foreign citizens who visited Iran in the previous two weeks from entering the United States, and announces a Level 4 “Travel Advisory to Italy and South Korea.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar. 1: New York City reports its first case.

Mar. 2:
  • NYC Health Commissioner: "We know that there’s currently no indication that it’s easy to transmit by casual contact […] We want New Yorkers to go about their daily lives, ride the subway, take the bus, go see your neighbors."
  • The Trump administration secures commitments from top pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine to fight coronavirus.

Mar. 3:
  • W.H.O. chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: “Stigma, to be honest, is more dangerous than the virus itself.”
  • “Federal restrictions on coronavirus testing are lifted, allowing any American to be tested for coronavirus upon a doctor’s orders.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar 4:

Mar 5: Trump says, “So, if we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work—some of them go to work, but they get better.”

Mar 6:
  • [Editor and spouse buy four giant bags of sWheat Scoop kitty litter.]
  • “President Trump signs an $8.3 billion emergency funding package to fight the coronavirus.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar. 9:
  • Dr. Antonio Fauci: “If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.”
  • [Editor and spouse go into voluntary lock-down.]
  • “President Trump proposes a payroll tax cut to help workers during the coronavirus outbreak.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar. 10:
  • “Top health insurance companies commit to waiving co-pays for coronavirus testing after a meeting with President Trump and Vice President Pence.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar. 11:
  • A study by the University of Southampton (UK) ascertains that if China had begun treating the outbreak as a serious health threat when the severity of the illness first came to light in late December, the spread of the disease could have been reduced by 95%.
  • “China shuts all 16 temporary coronavirus hospitals in Wuhan.”
  • “The World Health Organization declares the coronavirus a worldwide pandemic.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “President Trump announces that travel from Europe will be restricted.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “President Trump directs the Small Business Administration (SBA) to give low-interest loans to small businesses affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and asks Congress to increase the SBA lending fund by $50 billion.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “Trump instructs the Treasury Department to defer tax payments for individuals and businesses impacted by the coronavirus for three months without interest or penalty.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar. 12: [Editor and spouse buy two cases (48 cups) of Nissin Cup-o-Noodles instant soup.]

Mar. 13:
  • China Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian makes several posts on twitter that CV19 is an American disease that might have been introduced by members of the United States Army who visited Wuhan in October. “There is not a shred of evidence to support that,” notes the NY Times. [Ed. note: added this entry 4/9/2020.]
  • South China Morning Press reports that it has seen official, unpublished data pointing to Nov. 17 as the earliest known date of infection, for a 55-year-old Hubei man. [Ed. note: added this entry 4/9/2020.]
  • “President Trump declares the coronavirus a national emergency, providing access to $42 billion in funds to combat the coronavirus.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “President Trump announces plans to partner with the private sector to set up drive-through coronavirus testing sites.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “President Trump announces that interest on federal student loans would be waived during the pandemic.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “President Trump directs the Department of Energy to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “The FDA gives emergency approval to Roche AG and Thermo Fisher for their coronavirus tests.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]
  • “HHS announces it is funding the development of two new rapid diagnostic tests.” [Ed. note: entry added 5/20/2020.]

Mar. 15: During Democratic presidential debate: “No, look, the World Health Organization offered — offered the testing kits that they have available and to give it to us now. We refused them. We did not want to buy them,” Biden said. W.H.O. never offered testing kits. PolitiFact rates his claim “false.” The U.S. did not “reject” the WHO test because the WHO never offered it to the CDC in the first place.

Mar. 16:
  • The model that changed the world. Prof. Neil Ferguson et al. (Ferguson being the “gold standard” of disease modeling, according to the New York Times and Washington Post) build a model of 510,000 U.K. deaths and 2,000,000 U.S. deaths, based off Italy experience. This model drove public policy shifts in the two countries.
  • “We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.” [Summary]
  • In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality. [Page 7]
  • French research professor Didier Raoult completes his initial experiments, and shows a 100% cure of a small cohort of CV19 patients using hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.
  • Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health says the United States has developed a vaccine for the coronavirus, COVID-19, in record time. Fauci made the statement at the White House update on the coronavirus. He told reporters that the first vaccine was given in Seattle on Monday.
  • Six S.F. Bay counties are first in the country to adopt aggressive tactics with an enforceable order requiring residents to stay at home.

Mar. 17:
  • “Recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that chloroquine is an effective antiviral therapeutic treatment against Coronavirus Disease 2019.” (Google doc has been removed, but many sources reference it.)
  • NY Times analyzes the shifting public policy caused by the Ferguson report [Mar. 16], including excellent quotes from Prof. Ferguson and others.
  • [The] “messy back-and-forth [U.K. policy debate] has been on vivid display this week with the publication of a startling new report on the virus from a team at Imperial College in London. The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.”
  • “American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.”

Mar. 16-19: President Trump somehow finds out about Professor Raoult’s results. (Irish Times, which suspects Trump saw a tweet by Elon Musk). [Editor and spouse found out about it on or around March 17, via Instapundit.com.]


Mar. 19:
  • President Trump directs Federal Drug Administration commissioner Stephen Hahn to waive “outdated rules and bureaucracies” on the testing of various “anti-viral therapies” [primarily hydroxychloroquine] to combat coronavirus. (Daily Caller)
  • Trump says in a press release: “Now, a drug called chloroquine, and some people would add to it, hydroxychloroquine, so chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine … [has] shown very encouraging, very, very encouraging early results.” The president acknowledged that the drug may not “go as planned” and that more testing was needed, but that “we’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately.”
  • FDA “walks back” efforts by POTUS to streamline use. “Hahn suggested that both products would only be available through some of the FDA’s current protocols until they were formally approved.” (Roll Call) [So-called “off-label” prescription of these drugs has been legal for years.]
  • No PPE vs. unregulated PPE: “Over the last week we’ve assembled a working group that we’re tentatively calling the Open PPE Project. Our goal is to enable distributed fabrication of effective personal protective equipment at scale… We just got off the phone with NIOSH. They told us that approval for a new mask production facility in the US will take at minimum 45 days, but more likely 90.”
  • Abbott receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization and launches test to detect novel coronavirus. “Abbott is immediately shipping 150,000 Abbott RealTime SARS-CoV-2 EUA tests to existing customers in the U.S. The tests are used on the company’s m2000™ RealTime System. Abbott will be working with health systems and government authorities to deploy additional 2000 systems where they are needed.”
  • U.S. confirmed cases passes 10,000 and reaches 13000+.
  • Gov. Newsom decrees 40 million Californians must stay home.
  • An article published by the Times of London indicates that Chinese authorities have been deleting social media reports from the internet.

Mar. 20:
  • Trump wrongly claims in a White House press briefing that the US Food and Drug Administration had approved what he called “the very powerful” drug chloroquine to treat Covid-19. Dr. Fauci steps in and corrects him. (Irish Times).
  • CNN: “To fight the coronavirus, President Donald Trump is adopting the audacity of false hope.”

Mar. 21:
  • Trump tweets “HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine.” (Irish Times)
  • U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has revised its Emergency Use Authorization guidelines to private labs so that they specifically bar the use of at-home sample collection. (Tech Crunch)

Mar. 23:

Mar. 24:

Mar. 25:

Mar. 26:
  • China’s Global Times retroactively changes ‘Wuhan pneumonia’ to ‘novel coronavirus-related pneumonia’ in January article.
  • Senate passes Coronavirus rescue bill.

Mar. 27:
  • French research professor Didier Raoult,​ M.D, Ph.D., completes his second, larger experiment. “In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86-year-old patient who died, and one 74-year-old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.”
  • “the professor has gained many converts: converts being the proper name for them. […] What is needed, of course, is a proper scientific trial. With commendable speed for normally slow-moving bureaucracies, one has been started. The results should be known shortly—shortly, that is, by comparison with most trials, though in the meantime thousands will die.”
  • The USS Mercy arrives in L.A.
  • FDA is criticized for limit on number of masks Battelle system can decontaminate per day (10,000, but system can to 80,000/day). FDA relaxes limit after Trump intervenes on behalf of governor of Ohio. (Politico)
  • “Abbott Launches 5-Minute Virus Test for Use Almost Anywhere”. “The medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day starting April 1.” (Bloomberg)
  • New York Times reports that some experts are now saying that masks may do some good. “And if healthy individuals start stockpiling surgical masks and high-grade N95 masks, they can also make it harder for health workers to get the resources they need to help on the front lines.” And “…but studies of influenza pandemics have shown that when high-grade N95 masks are not available, surgical masks do protect people a bit more than not wearing masks at all. And when masks are combined with hand hygiene, they help reduce the transmission of infections.” (NY Times)
  • U.S. confirmed cases passes 100,000 and reaches 101,000+. [Ed. note: via ed.’s preferred source for visualizations of CV19 rates: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/]
  • China again shuts down all cinemas. (Hollywood Reporter)

Mar. 28:
  • Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, of NY state, says he has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak (TechStartup)
  • Italy and France described as prescribing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine as treatments for coronavirus patients (TechStartup)

Mar. 29:
  • The ongoing French study (Prof. Raoult et al.) reports that of 1,003 patients treated with HCQ/AZ, only one had died. He was 86 and was admitted already very sick.
  • Speaker Pelosi appears on CNN State of the Union, and says “As the President fiddles, people are dying. We just have to take every precaution.”
  • Dr. Anthony Fauci said that he anticipates between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in America from the coronavirus with millions infected.
  • President Trump extends social distancing guidelines to end of April.

Mar. 30:
  • The USNS Comfort arrives in New York City’s harbor.
  • “Effective immediately, Brooks Brothers will produce 150,000 masks per day to protect those on the frontlines battling the spread of COVID19.”
  • Six S.F. Bay Area counties are flattening the curve two weeks after first tough lock-down
  • CBS uses footage from Italian ICU while reporting on New York surge of cases, and claims an editing mistake. New York officials have said repeatedly that hospitals are doing well, with just over 1,500 people in ICUs across the state.
  • Dr. Deborah Birx: “If we do things together well, almost perfectly, we could get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities.”


Apr. 1:

Apr. 2:

Apr. 3: A map of the 44 CV19 trials in the U.S.

Apr. 4:
  • “Dr. Birx also said that Detroit, New York and Louisiana — the current hot spots — will likely reach a peak in the next six to seven days, citing the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s predictions.”
  • Also from the same NY Times article: “The U.S. will stockpile large quantities of an anti-malarial drug, the president says, though proof it can treat coronavirus is scant.” [emphasis added by ed.]

Apr. 5:
  • The US Surgeon General says he was wrong to compare coronavirus to the flu in a tweet from just two months ago, as the nation’s top health official faces criticism on Twitter over objectivity and professionalism in the face of the pandemic. “Let’s focus on the next 30 days not the last 30,” he added.
  • Australian scientists have found that a common anti-parasitic drug killed SARS-CoV-2 virus, growing in cell culture, within 48 hours in lab settings. Ivermectin is an FDA-approved anti-parasitic drug that has also been shown to be effective in vitro against a broad range of viruses including HIV, dengue, influenza and Zika virus.
  • Theory of Wuhan lab patient zero is no longer being discounted. Prof. Ebright said he has seen evidence that scientists at the Centre for Disease Control and the Institute of Virology studied the viruses with only ‘level 2’ security – rather than the recommended level 4 – which ‘provides only minimal protections against infection of lab workers’. He added: ‘Virus collection, culture, isolation, or animal infection would pose a substantial risk of infection of a lab worker, and from the lab worker then the public.’ He concluded that the evidence left ‘a basis to rule out [that coronavirus is] a lab construct, but no basis to rule out a lab accident’.”
  • NY Times: “Ignoring Expert Opinion, Trump Again Promotes Use of Hydroxychloroquine.”

Apr. 6:
  • L.A. doctor seeing success with hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. “Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Cardillo told Eyewitness News. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.” He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been rushed to an intensive care unit in the hospital after his coronavirus symptoms worsened, his office said in a statement Monday.
  • “Washington is returning 400 ventilators for use in New York, other states struggling in coronavirus battle.”

Apr. 7:
  • Massachusetts General Hospital begins tests using nitric oxide on pandemic patients.
  • CV19: Doctors and researchers have reported that many severe cases end up developing heart damage during the course of their infection, sometimes culminating in a fatal cardiac arrest in which the heart stops beating. More rarely, suspected or confirmed patients have also shown symptoms and signs of neurological illness, such as brain swelling, seizures, and strokes (loss of smell or taste, commonly reported by sufferers, can also be linked to neurological damage).
  • Regulations against making masks: “Open PPE’s is not the first case of a regulator slowing down life-saving development. As the disease raged in other countries, regulatory barriers imposed by the CDC and FDA set widespread coronavirus testing in the United States back by months. In a recent editorial, former FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb argued that regulators would need to be incredibly careful in order to not slow the development of life-saving antiviral treatments.”
  • A careful look at the HCQ/AZ combination: “One patient had to discontinue therapy on day 4 because of QT prolongation, a known side effect of hydroxychloroquine that can lead to fatal heart arrhythmia.” And: “In 84 patients, they found notable QT prolongation in about 30% of them, and another 11% were to a level (>500 milliseconds) that put them at a high risk for arrhythmia.”
  • Research raises concern of infection from breathing or talking. “‘Currently available research supports the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could be spread via bioaerosols generated directly by patients’ exhalation,’ writes Harvey V. Fineberg from the Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, who was the author of the letter”, while urging cautious interpretation of the results so far.
    • “We identified virus RNA in a small number of participants who did not cough at all during the 30-min exhaled breath collection, which would suggest droplet and aerosol routes of transmission are possible from individuals with no obvious signs or symptoms.”
  • Antiviral EIDD-2801: "This new drug not only has high potential for treating COVID-19 patients, but also appears effective for the treatment of other serious coronavirus infections," co-author Ralph Baric.
  • NY Times: “In N.Y.C., the Coronavirus Is Killing Men at Twice the Rate of Women.”

Apr. 8:
  • “A politically diverse and broad coalition is forming to pressure China to close the wild food markets of bat, cat, and dog meat blamed for the outbreak of the coronavirus and a number of other pandemics, including the 2003 SARS epidemic.”
  • You don’t want to end up on a ventilator. It’s an indication that medical care is failing you, and you’re in dire straits. And there is a large chance you won’t get better.
  • “It was the worst 2 weeks of my life”: Woman recovers from coronavirus. [Ed. note: paragraph 13 notes hydroxychlonoquine. Paragraph 14: “After I started taking the Malaria medicine, I started to feel a lot better,” she said. “Like, the next day.”]
  • “Sky News revealed last week in an exclusive interview with South China Morning Post news editor Josephine Ma that China buried hundreds of cases in late 2019, delaying global warnings and allowing the spread of the virus to leak into other countries.” […] “The WHO maintained that on January 30 the emergency declaration was blocked because it did not yet have evidence of human to human transmission despite having full knowledge 12,167 had been infected through human to human contact.”
  • S. Korea starts trials of plasma transfers. “Severance Hospital in Seoul said Tuesday that, so far, its test of treating two critically ill patients with the blood plasma of CV19 survivors succeeded.”
  • Second rapid tester available. “In late March, the FDA approved the use of Cepheid’s GeneXpert rapid molecular diagnostic machines to test for the new coronavirus.” 5000 already installed in U.S. health facilities, 18,000 in other countries.
  • IHME modeled deaths for U.S. (that drives policy decisions) is reduced for third time, from 94,000 (April 1) to 82,000 (April 5) to 61,000 (April 7). All three predictions assumed full social distancing. It should be noted that for none of the models are we at the half-way point yet. Note that the second graph below is the running sum of the first.
  • Convalescent therapy is 10-and-0 with 10 KOs. “All symptoms in the 10 patients, especially fever, cough, shortness of breath, and chest pain, disappeared or largely improved within 1 d to 3 d upon CP transfusion.” And “the viral load was undetectable after transfusion in seven patients who had previous viremia.” Convalescent therapy is the transfusion of blood plasma containing antibodies from recovered people to sick people. It was used during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

Apr. 9:
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 20. See red text at that date.]
  • [Ed. note: Two new entry are made in this blog for Mar. 13. See red text at that date.]
  • “[Boris] Johnson is now sitting up in bed and "engaging positively" with the clinical team at St Thomas’ Hospital in London.” He is still under intensive care.
  • Hospitals in Pennsylvania Italy struggle to treat patients. “CBS News appeared to run footage from an Italian hospital in a segment about an outbreak in Pennsylvania. This came exactly two weeks after CBS News ran the same footage in a segment about the outbreak in New York on March 25.” Just two weeks after they apologized for an editing mistake the first time they used that same footage.
  • “For the first time since the start of the outbreak, NY levels have dropped below the average expected level (12% below). The slow decline of NY illnesses is likely a result of a very big initial hit and limitations on how quickly distancing measures can work in dense urban areas dependent on public transport (e.g. subways, elevators, etc.). The trend is nonetheless encouraging and increases our conviction that the apex in NYS is likely behind us.” This analysis is from JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic, not a government epidemiologist.
  • “Here is Dr. Birx saying that the government is recording anyone who dies with coronavirus in the United States, regardless of any other health issue, as a death from coronavirus.” Proper counting is really difficult. This is why excess mortality is the only acceptable method of tallying the impact of an epidemic. Related: “New anecdotal evidence suggests that heart attack fatalities have mysteriously plummeted.”
  • You can add Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to W.H.O, F.D.A., C.D.C., and other bureaucratic organizations who have let us down. IHME was taken to task for “across-the-board misfires on hospital bed, ICU, and ventilator use last week.” For Louisiana, IHME predicted “more than 5,800 hospital beds would be needed, IHME has had to pull an Emily Litella-esque “Never mind” and essentially throw out its numbers. It now projects the Bayou State will only need 1,386 hospital beds and that Louisiana’s peak hospital resource use actually took place on April 1.” [Ed. note: Those models are very difficult to get right.]
    • The article goes on to note that deaths/month due to flu were up for year, and then suddenly dropped when we started battling CV19. The author ponders whether CV19 was actually around in our communities much earlier than we thought, which would tend to wreck any model that didn’t know that.
  • A 100-year-old lesson from Milwaukee.
  • “Just one section of Massachusetts could have more than 100,000 coronavirus cases — many times more than the entire state has identified at this point, according to an MIT-associated study of local sewage.” To read this is to ask the question: if so many people are asymptomatic, why is this virus so virulent for some others? [Ed. will do anything to get you the straight poop.]
  • Attempt to summarize one of the best local news articles ed. has ever read: Stanford testing thousands to see if CV19 is more common, under theory it got to California weeks before anyone knew about it. California top destination for Chinese tourists. California death rate 1/14th that of New York. Flu season started early - what it really flu? China now indicates its first case may have been Nov 17.
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Nov. 17. See red text at that date.]
  • Boris Johnson is out of the ICU and back in a regular ward.
  • “Washington’s field hospital to be dismantled before treating a patient, sent to states worse-hit by coronavirus.”

Apr. 10:
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Mar. 16. See green text at that date.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Mar. 17. See green text at that date.]
  • Via Instapundit: “The reporting is always questionable, but it’s looking as if Washington State is on the backside of the curve.”
  • Models are turning out to be wildly pessimistic. Here is a careful reporter debunking Ohio’s leadership trying to explain that their "shelter in place" order of Mar. 23 was responsible for the peak death rate (predicted to occur on Mar. 22) being so much lower. Plus, the model already assumed full measures taken.
  • A list of dates that U.S. States recommended Shelter-in-Place
  • A German study concludes that 15% of the population of of this town has been infected. 14% have antibodies and 2% are currently infected. The town is Gangelt, in the north-west of the country, and is one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany.
  • A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies. In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all. “Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org.
  • World deaths reach 100,000. Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said Friday that the U.S. has not “reached the peak” of the pandemic but that there were “encouraging” signs that the curves were flattening or lowering. “This is not the time to feel that since we have made such important advances … that we need to be pulling back at all,” Dr. Anthony Fauci added at the Friday press briefing. 16,500 deaths in the U.S., with 461,000 confirmed cases.

Apr. 11:
  • WSJ: “A new survey in Austria found that more than twice as many people have been infected as earlier figures showed.” The article: “The study conducted by polling firm SORA in cooperation with the government and the Red Cross indicated that 28,500 people, or around 0.33% of Austria’s 8.9 million population, were infected with the virus by April 6, sharply higher than the 12,467 infections recorded by that date.”
  • Ed. was assured [Mar. 19] that there were tens of thousands of these Abbott machines already in place: “‘It’s incredibly frustrating,’ said New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, whose state got 15 of Abbott Laboratories’ testing machines for Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus—and cartridges to conduct only about 100 tests.”
  • New York state has more CV19 cases than any country [except U.S.]. “As of Friday morning, the Empire State had almost 162,000 confirmed cases of the virus […] Spain, the country with the most confirmed cases other than the U.S., has just over 157,000 cases. Of the over 16,600 deaths in the U.S. from the disease, more than 7,000 have come from New York.”
  • The horrible, riveting story of bureaucracy in times of crisis: University of Washington researcher Greninger used the Chinese mapping of SARS-CoV-2 virus to develop a test. “He knew that he’d need to get FDA approval to use the test on patients, but if there was an outbreak coming, he hoped that wouldn’t be a problem. […] After emailing his application to the FDA, Greninger discovered that it was incomplete. It turned out that in addition to electronically filing it, he also had to print it out and mail a physical copy along with a copy burned onto a CD or saved to a thumb drive.”
    • F.D.A. stymied an effective test by requiring its developer to submit his request not only electronically but also mailed in paper and via thumb drive. Then the F.D.A. demanded that the developer see if his test worked against other coronaviruses. Then the F.D.A. shut down a testing regime developed by the Seattle Flu Study because it lacked the correct licensing requirements.
    • [Ed. note: to prevent the public, F.D.A. does not allow random companies to sell tests that could be faulty. Ed. understands this as necessary and good. But…]
  • A vaccine against coronavirus could be ready as soon as September, the British scientist leading one of the world’s most advanced efforts has said.
  • Comparing CV19 deaths to flu deaths is not helpful, because we don’t know how many deaths we’d have if we didn’t take drastic action. But here are the numbers anyway.
  • Using data from 91-divoc.com, ed. picked off the date of the first time a major country crossed the threshold of 100 confirmed per million inhabitants. Then ed. reproduced those results directly with his own JHU data. Then ed. computed those same cross-over dates for NY-NJ-CT and the remaining 47 states, as two distinct groups. The results are stark.
  • More analysis by ed. Below, the top plot shows the growth of confirmed cases in the tri-state area (NY, NJ, CT). The bottom plot shows the growth of confirmed cases in the rest of the U.S. While the U.S. would eventually bloom like everywhere else, something caused that bloom to not start when all other developed countries were blooming. In fact, it was New Yorkers and their ties to Europe that finally set the rampage loose.

Apr.12:
  • What did we get for all that money? [Ed. note: sorry, no F.D.A. numbers.]
  • “As for the FDA, more employees may be a negative to the nation since one of the agency’s activities is to hinder the introduction of new medicines and devices. In this crisis, the agency’s blockage of private‐​sector virus testing was hugely damaging.”
  • “Doctors, pols urge earlier use of ‘miracle’ coronavirus drug cocktail.” And, “although hydroxychloroquine is used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, the Federal Drug Administration has only approved it for treatment of COVID-19 in advanced cases of the virus and by the time patients have to rely on ventilators. Pharmacists in New York state are only allowed to fill prescriptions for the FDA-approved uses of the drug.” [Ed. note: There is anecdotal evidence that early administration of the cocktail stops the thing. But you’ll have to use DuckDuckGo to find them.]
  • A new Journey Man sub-blog detailing the timeline of the face mask fiasco is here.
  • “Georgia to convert Atlanta convention center to temporary hospital.”

Apr. 13:
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 29. See green text at that date.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Mar. 9. See green text at that date.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Apr. 7. See green text at that date.]
  • Quoting the L.A. Times: COVID-19 did not [officially] reappear in the Bay Area until Feb. 27, when doctors finally decided to test a hospitalized woman who had been ill for weeks. She became the region’s first case of community-spread coronavirus.
    • But from there, almost every positive test pointed toward local spread. “When public health [officials] tried to track down the start of the disease … we weren’t able to find, specifically, a contact,” Smith told county supervisors. “That means the virus is in the community already — not, as was suspected by the CDC, as only in China and being spread from contact with China.” The article also reports that it was an especially bad flu season.
    • [Ed. note: we know now that a woman died of CV19 in Santa Clara county on Feb. 6, and she had no direct contact with Wuhan.]
  • Quoting the N.Y. Times: “Any way you cut it, this is going to be bad,” a senior medical adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Dr. Carter Mecher, wrote on the night of Jan. 28, in an email to a group of public health experts scattered around the government and universities. “The projected size of the outbreak already seems hard to believe.” A week after the first coronavirus case had been identified in the United States [Ed.: Jan. 21], and six […] weeks before President Trump finally took aggressive action to confront the danger the nation was facing — a pandemic that is now forecast to take tens of thousands of American lives — Dr. Mecher was urging the upper ranks of the nation’s public health bureaucracy to wake up and prepare for the possibility of far more drastic action.” [Ed. note: we will never know what the mainstream media would have said, and how citizens would have reacted, if such shutting down of the economy had occurred in early February. Actually we can. It would have been wrong and Trump’s fault. But we live in the here-and-now, not the could-have-been that the garbage media want us to live in.]
  • This kind of second-guessing is not helpful. We are where we are right now. “In an interview with Jake Tapper, Dr. Anthony Fauci responds to reports that his early warnings on the pandemic were ignored.” [Ed. note: contrast “what goes into those decisions is complicated” with the editorialized summary word “ignored”. That’s garbage journalism.]
    • TAPPER: “The New York Times reported yesterday that you and other top officials wanted to recommend social and physical distancing guidelines to President Trump as far back as the third week of February, but the administration didn’t announce such guidelines to the American public until March 16, almost a month later. Why?”
    • FAUCI: “You know, Jake, as I have said many times, we look at it from a pure health standpoint. We make a recommendation. Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes, it’s not. But we -- it is what it is. We are where we are right now.”
    • TAPPER: “Do you think lives could have been saved if social distancing, physical distancing, stay-at-home measures had started third week of February, instead of mid-March?”
    • FAUCI: “It’s -- it’s very difficult to go back and say that. I mean, obviously, you could logically say, that if you had a process that was ongoing, and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives. Obviously, no one is going to deny that. But what goes into those kinds of decisions is -- is complicated. But you’re right. I mean, obviously, if we had, right from the very beginning, shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. But there was a lot of push-back about shutting things down back then.”
[Ed. note: At this time, ed. will stop linking to the unfolding blame game. It’s not helpful. Ed. will focus on events and policy announcements as they unfold.]
  • Deaths due to unemployment will be counted in ed.’s push for “Excess Mortality” accounting. Dr. Jeffrey Pfeffer of Stanford: “Here’s how to calculate the excess deaths from unemployment or the absence of health insurance--sort of a simple excess mortality calculator. According to one recent study, the mortality rate for working age adults in 2017 was 348.2/100,000 people (https://lnkd.in/g7-SNAJ). Unemployment raises the probability of premature death by 63% (https://lnkd.in/gNkqdcz). Multiply the two together and you get 219.366/100,000 people (348.2 x .63) So the 10 million recently unemployed equals 21,937 excess deaths. Absence of health insurance increases mortality by 80% (https://lnkd.in/gDiYJpa), so for the 27 million currently uninsured, some 75,211 excess deaths (348.2 x .8 x 270). If we actually cared about life, we would take these excess deaths seriously.” There is a real cost in human lives to shutting down an economy.

Apr. 14:
  • “‘The true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions,’ two University of Gottingen researchers say.” [Huge if true, but prove that it’s true.] [See also M.I.T. study reported in this blog on Apr. 9.]
  • An opinion piece in the Washington Post paints an ominous picture of substandard practices at the Wuhan bat lab (W.I.V.) that is being considered as a possible source for CV19. It’s full of awfulness, including an official cable from American scientists who were on-site reviewing and advising on practices.
    • “What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.”
    • “Most importantly,” the cable states, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”
  • “When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total,” Trump said at his evening briefing at the White House. He walks it back the next day, and even while doing so, has now effectively placed that responsibility where it belongs: on the governors of the various states.
  • Bat Woman: “Wuhan Institute of Virology’s work on bats — led by Shi Zhengli, the Chinese virologist nicknamed ‘Bat Woman’ for her work with that species — is conducted at the lower protection level of BSL-2.”
    • “‘The idea that is was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,’ a U.S. official told Rogin.”
  • Taiwan Releases Email Showing They Warned the WHO in December About Virus, Were Ignored
  • A review of Fauci’s various pronouncements: he is all over the place. “Fauci clarified his remarks [made on Sunday’s CNN State of the Union] during Monday’s coronavirus task force press conference, telling reporters that the president immediately acted on the experts’ recommendations.” And…
    • “Fauci was still downplaying the threat of the virus in the U.S. as late as Feb. 18, calling it a “hypothetical danger” that was “just minuscule” compared to the “real and present danger” of the seasonal flu.” [See entry Feb. 17.]
    • “During an interview on NBC’s Today morning show on February 29, Fauci expressed concern about the dangers of community spread within the U.S, but stressed that there was no need for anyone to change their lifestyles yet.”
  • We’ve had two Americas for a long time: [Ed. did his own analysis on this Apr. 11. See his graph there.] “With apologies to the good people of the great (but suffering) states of Illinois, Michigan and Louisiana, the US is basically two countries.
    • “New York [the city and surrounding counties] and New Jersey are having a death toll comparable to the most afflicted countries in Europe.
    • “90% of the country, however, is running as well as Germany, which is widely regarded as a ‘How did they do it’ success story.
    • “And California?!? They had early inflows from China and the same President, FDA, and CDC as the rest of the US. Testing? Limited. Yet there they are, half the German per capita toll. Hard to credit Trump for that. Or blame him.
    • “Why the difference? NYC is a major hub for international travel, its mass transit usage dwarfs other cities, its population density is 50% higher than San Francisco at number two, and who knows what else. […]
    • “DO NOTE: Official coronavirus deaths in NY have to be under-reported. ‘Excess deaths’ above a typical year are off the charts. Yes, including off the charts that go back to 9/11.” [H/T Instapundit.]


  • N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count - “The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive.” New York is head and shoulders worse than any other state in the nation. (Click to enlarge.)


  • Trump: “Today I’m instructing my administration to halt funding of the WHO while a review is conducted to assess the WHO’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” Trump said at a White House press briefing. “The WHO failed in this basic duty and must be held accountable.”
[H/T Instapundit] 

Apr. 15:
  • The mainstream press is garbage, carrying water for the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Emails reveal a calculated decision to allow Mardi Gras to happen. Quoting the New York Times: “I think we all were thinking that this was not going to be a huge issue, quite frankly, and then exponential growth started,” said Dr. Carlos del Rio, Chair of the Hubert Department of Global Health at the Rollins School of Public Health of Emory University. At the time, he added, “I think the mayor would have been executed if she would have said, ‘Let’s cancel Mardi Gras.’”
  • Experimenting with a higher dose of HCQ is probably not a good idea. This drug has a long history and well understood side effects, including heart rhythm issues that preclude its use for some patients. “Researchers called off a small Brazilian study on the anti-malaria drug chloroquine’s ability to combat coronavirus after some participants experienced potentially fatal heart complications. […] The scientists said that ‘the trend towards higher fatality associated with the higher dose by day 6 of follow-up resulted in a premature halting’ of administering higher doses to patients.”
  • Prof. Neil Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original, famous prediction [2.2 million U.S. deaths].
  • Israeli Professor Argues Virus Follows Fixed Pattern. “Irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week. The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.” [There’s a lot of uncertainty that he hand-waves away.]
  • WSJ: Coronavirus Ravages the Lungs. It Also Affects the Brain. “As Covid-19 cases mount, doctors are seeing patients who are experiencing symptoms like seizures, hallucinations and loss of smell and taste.”
  • “One-third of critically ill COVID-19 patients in Washington State series developed cardiomyopathy.” That and the fact the patients with heart conditions are prone to much worse ordeal makes ed. very cautious. But from the comments of this related article, we have:
    • “When people started reporting the cardiovascular and neurological symptoms my husband (an infectious disease physician) pointed out to friends and fellow doctors who spend less time treating people with overwhelming infections, that a lot of viruses that are otherwise not related to cardiac or neurological systems, result in direct or indirect damage to the heart and brain. Most people are less aware of that, because they don’t see people in the hospital from infections.”

Apr. 16:
  • Germany to relax some CV19 lockdown measures. “Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that small nonessential stores could reopen on Monday, and schools on May 4. But she stressed that it would be a long process.”
  • “Germany has managed to contain coronavirus more effectively than other European countries, partly thanks to a comprehensive testing regime that allowed authorities to identify and isolate those infected with the virus at an early stage. It has the capacity to run 650,000 tests a week.”
  • “Business leaders tell Trump on conference call: What the economy needs to reopen is much more coronavirus testing.”
  • Oh shut up, you awful people. “‘Alcohol compromises the body’s immune system and increases the risk of adverse health outcomes,’ the WHO’s regional office for Europe said on its site late Tuesday, citing heavy alcohol use throughout the continent.”
  • “U.S. virus numbers now include probable cases without tests.” “CDC officials said Wednesday in a statement that the change would give them ‘a better picture of the burden of COVID-19 in the U.S.’” No. Excess Mortality gives the best better picture of the burden of CV19.
  • A fascinating C.D.C. graph showing their Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance. “While the percent of all deaths due to P&I has increased during weeks 9-13 (7.4-10.0%), the percent of all deaths with Influenza listed as a cause have decreased (from 1.0% to 0.7%) over this same time period. The increase in pneumonia deaths during this time period are likely associated with COVID-19 rather than influenza.” [Ed. note: does anyone remember the 2017-18 flu season?]
  • CV19 testing by country, for Europe. [Should be normalized by population, but isn’t.] U.S. testing stands at 335,000 as of Apr. 15.
  • [Ed. note: a new entry is made in this blog for Dec. 26 and Dec 27. Please visit those days in the timeline.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 7. See green text at that date.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 29. See green text at that date.]
  • A list of all the good Chinese people who tried to warn us and got disappeared:
    • Dr. Ai Fen
    • Video bloggers Chen Qiushi and Fang Bin
    • Journalist Li Zehua, who live-streamed his own arrest
    • Xu Zhiyong, who criticized the party leader over the handling of the outbreak
    • Ren Zhiqiang, who wrote a critical article about handling and cover-up
    • The hero doctor, Li Wenliang
    • Lawyer Xu Zhangrun, who wrote an essay title "Viral Alarm"
    • Xie Linka, who tried to sound the alarm before being forced into silence by communist officials
  • “Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes.” “South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again.”
    • “False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems without being infectious or posing a risk of danger to the host or others. ‘There are different interpretations and many variables,’ said Jung Ki-suck, professor of pulmonary medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital. ‘The government needs to come up with responses for each of these variables’.”
  • Is it because they didn’t include azithromycin and zinc? “Hydroxychloroquine Trial for Treating COVID-19 Disappoints: The best available evidence does not support the use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19.”
  • A trial in France was conducted to “assess the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine in 20 patients, six of which were also administered with azithromycin. Compared with 16 controls, the proportion of participants who achieved virologic cure following six days of treatments was observed to be higher in the 20 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine. In addition, the rate of cure was highest in people who received hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.”

Apr. 17:
  • U.S. three-phase reopening plan unveiled. “‘You’re going to call your own shots,’ Trump told the governors Thursday afternoon in a conference call, according to an audio recording obtained by The Associated Press. ‘We’re going to be standing alongside of you.’ Places with declining infections and strong testing would begin a three-phase gradual reopening of businesses and schools.”
    • Phase 1: “strict social distancing for all people in public. Gatherings larger than 10 people are to be avoided and nonessential travel is discouraged.”
    • Phase 2: “people are encouraged to maximize social distancing and limit gatherings to no more than 50 people unless precautionary measures are taken. Travel could resume.”
    • Phase 3: “a return to normalcy for most Americans, with a focus on identification and isolation of any new infections.”
  • “China has issued new regulations restricting the publication of research about coronavirus,” CNN reports, citing China’s elite Fudan University.” “Any paper that traces the origin of the virus should be strictly managed,” the government guideline says. The Fudan University site is taken down after CNN makes an inquiry.
  • A preliminary single-arm study of Remdesivir shows hopeful results. It was funded by Gilead and used compassionate care guidelines (so no controls).
  • Politics: “The $350 billion loan program for small businesses ran out of money as Republicans and Democrats continued to disagree over how to replenish the funds.”
  • “Belgium’s health minister, facing one of the world’s highest population-adjusted death rates, said the country may have been overestimating fatalities. Her proposal to offer a second set of figures offers new evidence of how difficult it remains to tally the virus’s impact.”
  • Hokkaido was very successful in containing the first wave. The second wave has been tougher. “. . . Hokkaido has some similarity to what happened in the South Korean city of Daegu. There, a large outbreak in a religious cult was aggressively traced. Those infected were isolated and the outbreak was suppressed. But the second lesson from Hokkaido is much less reassuring. After the Daegu outbreak, the South Korean government began a massive testing program to try and track the epidemic. Japan has done the opposite.”
  • “Moderna Inc. said Thursday it reached an agreement to receive as much as $483 million in funding from a federal agency to accelerate the development and production of its closely watched experimental vaccine against the new coronavirus. The federal funding will cover advancing the vaccine through a series of studies to potential approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.”
    • “Moderna’s vaccine is among the most advanced coronavirus vaccine candidates. The first study of the vaccine in people started in March, though U.S. government researchers say the soonest it could finish testing and be ready for widespread use is early next year.”
  • Positivity vs. prevalence - what you need to know. The U.S. has an astoundingly high positivity rate (the fraction of tests administered that are positive). A positivity rate of just a couple of percent is required before one can draw conclusions about the number of infected people. Said another way, the administration of the test is strongly biased toward those who are very likely positive. Said another way, this is what happens when tests are rationed. Prevalence testing looks for antibodies or the virus, and shows all the people it has passed through. This, when widely available, will show how long until the virus runs out of new victims to infect.

Apr. 18:
  • “Less than half of L.A. County residents still have jobs amid coronavirus crisis.”
  • “MIT study: Subways a ‘major disseminator’ of coronavirus in NYC.” Not just CV19… 
  • “Beef processors are closing U.S. plants, warn of beef shortages and hoarding.”
  • “South Korea is being closely watched as an early indicator of how Covid-19 lingers across a population. More than 160 people there have tested positive a second time, a development that suggests the disease may last longer than expected. The initial belief is that the virus has ‘reactivated’ in the patients, but the research remains ongoing and inconclusive.”
    • “It’s clear that we don’t fully understand what it means to have immunity against this virus,” said Keiji Fukuda, a former WHO official who worked extensively on the H1N1, avian flu and other recent major outbreaks.
  • “Germany, seeking a path out of lockdown, begins broad random testing for antibodies..”
  • Ed’s personal analysis of the two important prevalence studies:

Apr. 19:


  • Chattanooga mayor’s persecution of Christians earns lawsuit: “‘The City and Mayor have specifically targeted churches by banning drive-in services, despite permitting packed parking lots at retail establishments and drive-in restaurants.’ This stems from a post by Mayor Berke ahead of Easter stating that, ‘drive-in services . . . even in their cars with the windows rolled up, for any length of time will be considered a violation of our shelter-in-place directive.’”
  • Phys.org: “‘The types of SARS-CoV-2 viruses that we see in tests from Asia and Europe is different than the types we’re seeing in America,’ said Gail Rosen, Ph.D., a professor in Drexel’s College of Engineering, who led the development of the tool. “Identifying the variations allows us to see how the virus has changed as it has traveled from population to population. It can also show us the areas where social distancing has been successful at isolating COVID-19.’”
  • Counting NYC metro area as if it were a country of 12.2 million souls? It is the hardest-hit “country” in the world: in terms of confirmed cases per million people, and in terms of deaths per million people. The rest of the U.S. would be ranked 13th (confirmed cases per million) or 11th (deaths per million).
    • N.Y. metro: Four times as many confirmed cases per million as Spain
    • N.Y. metro: Twice as many deaths per million as Spain

Apr. 20:
  • The changing fatality rate is one reason the models keep fluctuating, McNeil says, but “there may be good news buried in this inconsistency: The virus may also be mutating to cause fewer symptoms. […] In reality, [viruses] usually become less [deadly], because asymptomatic strains reach more hosts. Even the 1918 Spanish flu virus eventually faded into the seasonal H1N1 flu.” [Ed. note: viruses mutating to become less deadly is a well-known fact, not a NY Times writer’s opinion.]
  • The U.K.’s garbage media gets a proper rebuttal from the U.K. government.
  • “Shake Shack returning $10M loan from ‘confusing’ federal small-business relief program.”
  • It’s back in Singapore, which reported 1,426 new cases—one-and-a-half times its previous daily record. Singapore has responded to the recent surge with increasingly tight and strictly enforced rules restricting its population’s movements.
  • “As the ranks of Covid-19 survivors swell, scientists are racing to understand how well they resist reinfection—and just how long that hard-won immunity might last.”
    • “So far, most medical researchers who have studied coronaviruses related to the pathogen that causes Covid-19—including SARS, MERS and the common cold—are confident that people who do recover gain some immunity to SARS-CoV-2, based on preliminary studies and case reports of the new virus. They don’t know yet whether that protection will last a few months, a few years or a lifetime.”
  • Check your privilege, lucky person. “Celebrities and the media shouldn’t sneer at CV19 lockdown protesters.” People need to feed their families. Please attempt to understand their difficult [Morton’s fork] choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.
  • NY City has failed at controlling CV19, and leads the world in death per capita. Was it just the politicians who failed? What about the decision to keep running the subway? A non-peer-reviewed paper by an M.I.T. researcher found that local authorities cut down on the number of trains, but the authors point out that this only made matters worse:
    • “The Metropolitan Transit Authority’s decision to cut back its train service to accommodate the reduced demand may have indeed helped to shore up the agency’s financial position, but it most likely accelerated the spread of coronavirus throughout the city. That’s because the resulting reduction in train service tended to maintain passenger density, the key factor driving viral propagation (Goldbaum and Cook 2020). How ironic it is that, from the public health perspective, the optimal policy would have been to double – maybe even triple – the frequency of train service. The agency’s decision to convert multiple express lines into local service only enhanced the risk of contagion (Goldbaum 2020).”
    • “Local train lines appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.”
  • The price of crude oil goes negative.
  • “Credit card issuers, including Chase and Citi, are offering support through flexible bill payments and waived late fees and interest in response to the coronavirus pandemic.” Big companies with deep pockets can do a lot. They should do a lot. It’s patriotic, and the failure to do a lot will come back to haunt them. Related: “Lenders are proactively offering to help borrowers in trouble by providing hardship forbearance options. Additionally, cities and states have taken measures to halt evictions and foreclosures.” But: “interest will still accrue”.
  • A technical article estimates R_0 at 5.7 with a wide confidence interval (3.8–8.9). That’s a big number. The date of the article is Apr. 7.

Apr. 21:
  • Trump tweets that the administration will suspend immigration in light of CV19 threat. WSJ: “Even without an executive order, the administration has already all but ceased nearly every form of immigration. Most visa processing has been halted.”
  • “Two out of three restaurant workers have lost their jobs.” What can we as fellow humans and patriots do to help?
  • “The small businesses that received aid under the federal government’s $350 billion rescue program weren’t always the ones with the greatest needs or the best chances to survive the coronavirus pandemic. Whether a firm made the cut often came down to how and where it banked.”
  • A fourth prevalence study puts the number of infections closer to 5 percent: “More L.A. County Residents Likely Infected With Coronavirus Than Thought, Study Finds.”
    • “Approximately 4.1% of the tests came back positive, said Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. Researchers at the University of Southern California, who joined with the health department, then estimated that 2.8% to 5.6% of L.A. County’s adult population has been infected at some point.”
    • [Ed. opines: Why this is a surprise to anyone, given the U.S.’s woeful testing capacity, is a question left to the reader.]
  • Two Americas: those sitting at home getting paid, and those out of work. Instapundit opines: “One thing that has appalled me — in the comments here, on social media, and well, everywhere — is that so many people dealing with a situation full of uncertainty and unreliable data are so dead-certain of their positions and so abusive of people who disagree. And that’s certainly true of both sides in this debate.”
  • “Harvard under fire for accepting more than $8M in coronavirus relief package.” Harvard has a $40 buh buh buh billion endowment. How about if that $8M went to the unemployed.
    • Related. Ed. disowns Harvard, which chooses this time to ridicule home-schooling in a lazy, patronizing way. “Harvard prof calls homeschooling ‘dangerous,’ says it gives parents ‘authoritarian control’ over kids.” Translation: it takes away the left’s ability to indoctrinate via public schools. Plus, Harvard implies (in its original illustration) home-schoolers don’t know how to spell arithmetic. That’s classy.
    • Update: Harvard has silently corrected the misspelling. Ed. asks himself: why misspell it in the first place? Why silently correct it? Harvard’s silent correction stinks of knowing condescension. A great rebuttal is here.
  • “Chinese consulate in Chicago got caught trying to plant pro-CCP resolution in Wisconsin state legislature.” Quoting the Financial Times (behind a paywall): “That explains why diplomats risked turning someone such as [Wisconsin state] Senator Roth, a hitherto neutral bystander or even potential ally of Chinese trade diplomacy, into an enemy. China’s goal was to publicise the resolution in state propaganda to validate party rule back home. But now the Wisconsin senator plans a very different bill. While praising the Chinese people, it will ‘strip the brutal Chinese Communist party naked for the world to see . . . as well as the damage it has done to the whole world through covering up this coronavirus,’ Sen Roth said. It is likely to pass with a hefty majority.” [Ed observes that CCP-watching hawks are noting that dictator Xi Jingping is in a tenuous position.]
  • CCP xenophobia: “Africans in Guangzhou are being evicted from their homes and turned away from hotels, forced onto the streets, amid rising xenophobia and concerns of a CV19 rebound.”
  • “Writer Wade Shepard blogged that his story on worsening xenophobia against foreign nationals in China was rejected as too controversial by a mainstream media outlet. So, he had to publish it himself. ‘Big media organizations with physical footprints in China have become pretty afraid of offending Beijing and are self-censoring in a major way,’ Shepard wrote in the comments section to his post.” [Ed. asks: Why are they afraid?]
  • “Coronavirus-stricken George Stephanopoulos ignores mask mandate during Hamptons stroll.” But police fine a father playing catch with his daughter in a deserted park.
  • So expert. So capable. “CDC’s failed coronavirus tests were tainted with coronavirus, feds confirm.”
    • “As the new coronavirus took root across America, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent states tainted test kits in early February that were themselves seeded with the virus, federal officials have confirmed.”
  • Seek the truth. Even if you have to conclude you were wrong and your political opponent was right somehow.

Apr. 22:
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 8. See green text at that date. It refers to early CDC action to be on the watch at airports for sick travelers from Wuhan.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 16. See green text at that date. It documents that the Wuhan government declared the health crisis over.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 22. See green text at that date. It documents the central C.C.P. government ordering a quarantine of Wuhan.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 24. See green text at that date. It documents that the Chinese C.C.P. banned some travel inside China, but continued to allow travel in and out of the country.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 27. See green text at that date. It documents that the Chinese C.C.P. banned group travel in and out of China.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 29. See green text at that date. It documents a State Department flight arriving from China with 195 U.S. citizens aboard.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Jan. 31. See green text at that date. It documents one person’s account escaping from Wuhan on a U.S. State Department airplane.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 5. See green text at that date. It documents the final four flights evacuating U.S. citizens from Wuhan.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 13. See green text at that date. It documents the C.D.C.’s report critical of the Chinese C.C.P. response.]
  • Ed. recommends this visualization. There’s a lot of scientific jargon to hack through, but readers of this blog should manage just fine. Set the ‘SPEED’ button (bottom left of the whole page) to MEDIUM or FAST. Then press the ‘PLAY’ button in the top left of the world map. Watch the little buggers go. You can see how Washington State got walloped by B1, while the bugger immediately mutated to A2 to make the jump to Europe, which then sent A2 over to NY. Gradually A2 is swamping B1 in the U.S. and the world.
  • “On April 6, ‘an official newspaper said there could be 10,000 to 20,000 such [asymptomatic] cases in Wuhan. The report was swiftly deleted online.’” Totalitarian dictatorships have great incentives to quash unpleasant truths.
  • “Kanye West teams up with Chick-Fil-A to provide 300K meals to vulnerable people during pandemic... after his wife Kim Kardashian donates $1M.” Caring human being? Or attention-seeking celebrity? I’m going with caring human being.
  • Now first known CV19 death in Silicon Valley is identified as Feb. 6. And it was via community transmission.
    • “Two individuals who died in Santa Clara County in February tested positive for COVID-19, health officials learned Tuesday, revealing the novel coronavirus was responsible for deaths in the Bay Area more than a month earlier than initially reported […] — adding to mounting evidence that the virus was spreading here far earlier than once believed.”
    • “The origin of these cases is believed to be within the community, Smith added. That suggests community transmission of the coronavirus was occurring in Santa Clara County well before the first U.S. case of community-acquired COVID-19 was reported in Solano County on February 26.”
  • “Hundreds of New York correction officers are ill, with the Rikers Island jail complex among the most-infected workplaces in the U.S.”
  • “China helped sow panic, U.S. officials say.” “Alarming messages that popped up last month on cellphones and social media feeds of millions of Americans warned that the Trump administration was about to lock down the entire country. U.S. intelligence agencies have since determined that the warnings were amplified by Chinese operatives, prompting officials to look at new ways in which countries are encouraging the spread of disinformation during the pandemic.”
  • CDC Director Robert Redfield on Tuesday warns that the United States next winter could see another wave of Covid-19 cases that would be deadlier than the current wave because it would likely coincide with the beginning of the country’s flu season.
  • “Here’s when all 50 states plan to reopen after coronavirus restrictions.”
  • “Harvard clashes with Trump over coronavirus relief, rebuffs call to return [$8M].” Ed. notes: see yesterday’s entry.
    • Update: “Harvard blinks, university won’t accept $9M in coronavirus relief.” “Harvard is grudgingly giving up nearly $9 million in coronavirus relief after President Trump called out the elite university over federal aid awarded as others are fighting for their economic lives.” [Ed. feels better.] Reuters: “At a press briefing on Tuesday, Trump cited Harvard’s ample endowment - worth nearly $41 billion - as the reason why it should not have the money.”
  • “A reporter asked Gov. Cuomo what he’d say to New Yorkers who want to go back to work because they’re running out of money, to which he replied, ‘economic hardship doesn’t equal death […] ‘You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker.’”
  • There were no easy choices, but this seems like a poor one: “‘I am wondering who will hold Gov. Cuomo accountable for the deaths of so many older people due to his reckless decision to place covid19 patients in nursing and rehabilitation homes,’ the letter began. ‘I am writing as a daughter who lost her beautiful 88 year old mother who was receiving physical therapy at one such facility.’” The author also expressed frustration that the media never asked the governor about an order mandating that nursing homes admit and readmit patients who tested positive for the coronavirus, despite the extraordinary number of deaths among the elderly.
    • Related: N.Y. Gov. Cuomo answers a question regarding his state’s policy on returning CV19 patients to nursing homes: ‘That’s a good question, I don’t know.’ “Health Commissioner Howard Zucker, to whom Cuomo referred the question, said that under the state’s policy, ‘if you are positive, you should be admitted back to a nursing home.’” [This was reported two days ago by the Daily Mail.]
  • Sweden’s gamble avoiding a lock-down isn’t winning . . . yet.


  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 17. See green text at that date. It refers to rumors spreading within Wuhan that the disease originated from the W.I.V. virology lab.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 22. See green text at that date. It refers to an analysis suggesting the disease originated from the W.I.V. lab.]
  • [Ed. note: A new entry is made in this blog for Feb. 24. See green text at that date. It documents the W.H.O.’s campaign to rename what had been universally known as the Wuhan virus or the Chinese coronavirus.]

Apr. 23:
  • Ed. was unaware that Austin allowed conservatives. Conservatives Fuel Protests Against Coronavirus Lockdowns. From the same “news” organization: What’s Driving the Right-Wing Protesters Fighting the Quarantine? A friend on Facebook deconstructs the blatant construction of a narrative:
    • “In the first article they portrait the protesters as MAGA hat wearing nut jobs that listen to Alex Jones and believe Sandy hook was a conspiracy. They used 111 words on Alex Jones and Sandy hook. They used 17 words to descried people that lost their jobs. 
    • “In the second article they describe the people advocating for opening the economy as right-wing extremists. But there is no mention of people that have lost their jobs. Is losing your income a legitimate reason to want to open things up?” [H/T the amazing Rick. H.]
  • Bad Analogies 101: “‘We pulled the plug.’ As oil prices plunge, drillers in the Gulf of Mexico are shutting off oil wells.”
  • “On Tuesday, an Idaho mother was arrested in front of her children for refusing to leave a playground that was apparently closed by the city due to the novel coronavirus, COVID-19. Video of the confrontation shows a woman later identified as Sarah Brady, 40, being cuffed for refusing to leave an area playground. ‘Do it,’ Brady dared an officer threatening to arrest her.”
  • Wisconsin Legislature sues to stop Governor’s Stay-at-Home Order
    • “An unelected, unconfirmed cabinet secretary has laid claim to a suite of czar-like powers—unlimited in scope and indefinite in duration—over the people of Wisconsin… [B]y the time the Secretary sees fit to lift her decree… [o]ur State will be in shambles….”
  • A knock-out article explaining the ins and outs of developing reliable testing. If you don’t know the difference between Type 1 errors and Type 2 errors (false positives and false negatives respectfully), now’s your chance.
  • While you were busy dealing with the C.C.P.-wrought virus, the C.C.P. has quietly ended Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement and assimilated them. “China office says that city’s right to self-rule is ‘authorised by the central government’.”
  • “‘Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us.’ Lockdowns are drying up work and incomes around the globe, leaving millions to worry about having enough to eat. The World Food Program estimates that 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of the year, which would double the number of people facing acute hunger.”
  • Beware the plume. “Coronavirus spreads through the air outside with shocking ease, study says.”
  • Who is Dr. Tedros [he has a Ph.D. but no M.D.]? Communist China and W.H.O. Director Tedros go way back. Ethiopia was China’s beachhead for their “belt and roads” initiative’s infiltration of Africa. “Shortly after his election victory in 2017, it was alleged that Chinese diplomats had been heavily involved in lobbying for him. UN records also show that Chinese contributions to both Ethiopia’s aid budget and the WHO have substantially increased during times when he was in top leadership positions.” Early in his career, Tedros joined the hard-left TPLF - which began as a Communist party. The B.B.C. explains that his obsequious behavior toward China thusly:
    • “So while Dr Tedros may be political, a lot of that political effort seems to be spent reassuring authoritarian, untransparent governments, in a bid to get them to work with the WHO to tackle diseases which threaten global health.”
    • The B.B.C. quotes Lawrence Gostin, Professor of Global Health Law at Georgetown University: “His strategy is to coax China to transparency and international co-operation rather than criticising the government. […] I do worry quite a bit however that his effusive praise for China could in the long term tarnish the WHO’s reputation as a trusted scientific authority willing to speak truth to power.”
  • “Beijing succeeded from the start in steering the W.H.O.” An interesting read about the rubes of the W.H.O. delegation being shown what to think by the C.C.P. “‘The very uniformity of this narrative should have been a wake-up call,’ said Mareike Ohlberg from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies. Indeed, the whole trip of both foreign and national experts seems to have been organized along Potemkin-esque lines for a team where most of its international members lacked linguistic skills and familiarity with China.”
  • “Li Zehua: Journalist who ‘disappeared’ after Wuhan chase reappears.”
  • “Nearly all NYC coronavirus patients had underlying health conditions, study finds.”
  • The Feb. 6th death of a 56-year-old healthy woman in Santa Clara County - a woman who had not visited China - means that community spread was already happening in California in mid-January.
  • Here is a thorough summary of treatments being tested, along with a bit of a primer about each type.
  • This is extremely not good news for ed. A lot of people who get really sick or die from CV19 take blood pressure medications called ACE inhibitors. “Researchers agree that the life-saving drugs affect the same pathways [ACE2] that the novel coronavirus takes to enter the lungs and heart. They differ on whether those drugs open the door to the virus or protect against it.” Ed. takes four BP medicines, including an ACE inhibitor.

Apr. 24:
  • “First patients injected in UK vaccine trial.”
  • Prevalence in NYC: 1 in 5. Three thousand N.Y.C. residents were tested for the presence of CV19 antibodies “The preliminary results mean that one in five of the city residents tested have had coronavirus and developed the antibodies to fight it. Across the state, 13.9% of the individuals tested were positive for antibodies.” [Ed. opines: given the disaster that was N.Y.C.’s response, ed. is surprised the number is that low.]
  • Our garbage press working overtime to make citizens feel bad about America:
  • The truth: daily deaths for NY-NJ-CT compared to the rest of the U.S. (smoothed with one-week moving window). The U.S. (excluding tri-state area) never exceeded 4 daily deaths per million. The world average daily deaths is about seven. The cesspit that is NY-NJ-CT peaked at 124 deaths per million persons. [Ed. own analysis using Johns Hopkins data.]
  • “May I suggest that the way of the Braskem America workers is the spirit that built America into the greatest and most prosperous country the world has ever known.”
  • Over the weekend there were many news stories claiming that the efficacy of HCQ + azithromycin + zinc had been disproven or worse. At the time, ed. decided not to link to any because (a) the study was not peer-reviewed, (b) it chose people to study who were already desperately sick when the drugs were administered (20% of the patients died in both arms of the study), and (c) all stories ed. could find were written by scientific illiterates with clear a political slant. But today ed. runs across a story that states, “We’ve also got a $12 treatment with the hydroxychloroquine cocktail that has smashed Brazil’s fatality rate by 95%.” What? Ed. has no idea how widely prescribed HCQ is in Brazil (one source says 43%), but observe the blue dots:
    • (The desecration of science reporting by political slant makes ed. nauseous.)
  • A poll of what doctors think of the supportive medicines and treatments they are using reports. “Perceived efficacy [of hydroxychloroquine] is higher in non-hospital settings.This may suggest hydroxychloroquine is more efficacious in milder cases.”
    • “Tocilizumab bears attention, as it appears to be emerging as a relatively effective treatment option among physicians in hospital settings (52% rate it as very/extremely effective, though it lags with a 27% rating within ICU.)”.
    • “Tocilizumab is an interleukin-6 receptor antagonist, blocking the proinflammatory IL-6 from its binding site and stopping the uncontrolled inflammatory response that may be a cause of mortality in some COVID-19 patients.”
  • Staple his goddam mouth shut.
    • ACTING UNDER SECRETARY BRYAN: …We’re also testing disinfectants readily available. We’ve tested bleach, we’ve tested isopropyl alcohol on the virus, specifically in saliva or in respiratory fluids. And I can tell you that bleach will kill the virus in five minutes; isopropyl alcohol will kill the virus in 30 seconds, and that’s with no manipulation, no rubbing — just spraying it on and letting it go. You rub it and it goes away even faster. We’re also looking at other disinfectants, specifically looking at the COVID-19 virus in saliva.
    • THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. So I asked Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of, if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light — and I think you said that that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you’re going to test that too. It sounds interesting.
    • ACTING UNDER SECRETARY BRYAN: We’ll get to the right folks who could.
    • THE PRESIDENT: Right. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning. Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it would be interesting to check that. So, that, you’re going to have to use medical doctors with. But it sounds — it sounds interesting to me. So we’ll see. But the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute, that’s — that’s pretty powerful.

Apr. 25:
  • Via Instapundit, quoting this commentary:
    • “If we keep the economy closed at current levels, it will continue to decay, and at some point turn into irreversible, non-linear damage. No one knows when, or how to model the course of that process. That decay also will eat into our future public health capacities, and perhaps boost hunger and poverty around the world.
    • “If we keep people locked up at current levels, fewer of them will be exposed to the virus, and in the meantime we can develop better treatments, and also improve test and trace capabilities. No one knows how quickly those improvements will come, or how to model the course of that process, or how much net good they will do.
    • “The relative pace of those two processes should determine our best course of action. No one knows the relative pace of either of those two processes. Yet commentators pretend to be increasingly knowledgeable, moralizing based on the pretense of knowledge they do not have.”
  • Your garbage media, Wall Street Journal edition. Reporter David Marcus at the Federalist is the real journalist.
    • “The Federalist has obtained a copy of the recorded interview between Wall Street Journal reporters Rebecca Ballhaus, Stephanie Armour, and Azar, taken in the lead-up to the article. From that recording, it is clear the Wall Street Journal left vital information and context out of the story time and again. The minimal quotes they cherry-pick from Azar give a distorted perspective on what they claim to have discovered about the initial federal response to the coronavirus in January.”
    • Mr. Marcus also includes a very thorough timeline at the end of his article.
  • “Pressured by China, E.U. Softens Report on Covid-19 Disinformation. A revised report shows how Beijing reacts swiftly and effectively to tamp down Western criticism of its pandemic response.”
  • “One country, one system: The week that China shredded its promise on Hong Kong.”
  • CEO Donny Tuchman of the overwhelmed Cobble Hill Health Center sent “a desperate email to state Health Department officials on April 9, asking if there was ‘a way for us to send our suspected covid patients’ to the hospital built inside the Javits Convention Center or the US Naval hospital ship Comfort — the under-utilized federal medical facilities on Manhattan’s West Side. […] He was denied.”
    • “Cobble Hill has led all state nursing homes in the number of residents killed by the coronavirus since the state Health Department began releasing those figures last week.”
  • What a good idea! “The University of Washington School of Medicine is looking for people who have tested positive for COVID-19 to participate in a clinical trial aimed at finding out whether a controversial drug called hydroxychloroquine can keep them from having to be hospitalized.” [Ed.: emphasis added. It’s only “controversial” because Trump called the press’s attention to it. See entries here Mar. 16 and Mar. 16-19.] [Instapundit opines: “This seems more promising than waiting until they’re at death’s door on a ventilator to try it.” See ed.’s comments yesterday and Apr. 16.]
  • Another prevalence study (lines up with the rest): “Findings from a coronavirus antibody study released by Miami-Dade County Friday revealed that approximately 6 percent of the county’s population, or approximately 165,000 people, have COVID-19 antibodies. That percentage lines up with findings in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and New York State (excluding the hot spots around New York City).”
  • Ed. makes death rate estimates using available prevalence estimates:
    • Some notes:
      • Data are from Worldometer.com.
      • Serious/Critical numbers are unavailable for NY State and NY City on Worldometer, so they are ratio-ed from U.S. numbers.
      • We know from random testing (“prevalence testing”) that millions and millions of people have CV19 antibodies but were never counted in Case statistics because they did not avail themselves of medical care, or were not tested if they did. Ed. uses a 5% prevalence estimate for every region except New York, based on three studies from Santa Clara, L.A., and Florida that all gave results of about 5%. NY State and NY City have their own prevalence estimates, which are much higher.
      • It is likely that Spain, France and Italy have higher prevalence numbers because they have been fighting CV19 longer. If so, that would lower the prevalence-based death rate estimate.
    • Ed. fears the final death rate in 2020 to exceed 1% in the developed world, based on Italy’s and NY City’s experience.
      • The flu during a bad year: “CDC estimates that influenza was associated with 45 million illnesses, 21 million medical visits, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths during the 2017–2018 influenza season.” This is a death rate of 61,000/327,000,000 = 0.019%. Popular estimates for flu mortality are higher, at about 0.1%. A friend points out to ed. that the denominator should be people infected, not the total population, or 61/45,000, which is about 0.14%. [H/T Dan G.]
      • This is a very scary bug. Very transmissible. Very virulent.

Apr. 26:

Apr. 27:
  • “Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Sanofi said Monday they will shut down part of a study exploring whether their arthritis therapy could treat certain hospitalized Covid-19 patients because the drug looked unlikely to help them. An early look at ongoing trial results indicated the therapy, named Kevzara, wasn’t helping patients who were hospitalized with a severe form of Covid-19 but don’t require a ventilator’s assistance with breathing, the companies said. The study will continue, however, for an even sicker set of hospitalized Covid-19 patients who require the help of ventilators or other high-flow oxygen support, the companies said.”
  • (Bipartisan) lawmakers are fed up with Gov. Whitmer in Michigan. They intend to pass a bill limiting her power (which she would have to sign into law). “I’m not going to sign any bill that takes authority away from me.”
  • “Wisconsin stay-at-home orders were supposed to expire Friday. Instead, thousands of disgruntled Wisconsinites descended upon the capitol in protest after the Evers administration extended the Dairy State’s so-called Safer at Home order another month.”
  • “Newsom announced a deal for ‘upwards of 200 million masks on a monthly basis,’ from ‘a manufacturer here in the state of California’.” The manufacturer, it turns out, is a Chinese outfit that has never made PPE before. The F.D.A. approved them for Newsom’s deal under an emergency action - the first of that kind.
    • “But the first company the FDA approved has been prohibited by law from bidding for some federal contracts in the United States. Although the company, BYD, is a major global player in the electric vehicle and lithium battery markets, it also has glaring red flags on its record, experts warn, including a history of supplying allegedly faulty products to the U.S., ties to the Chinese military and Communist Party, and possible links to forced labor.”
    • “The deal that will cost California taxpayers 30% more than [Newsom’s] January budget would spend on infectious disease prevention for an entire fiscal year.”
    • “Is Newsom going to broker the masks to other states? Why does California need 200 million masks a month, especially with the illness trends dropping?”
    • “The number of COVID-19 deaths have been much less than the 750 total deaths that occur every day in California.” “Furthermore, there is evidence that there have been substantial reductions in the deaths due to seasonal flu, pneumonia and accidents because of the almost exclusive focus on COVID-19 and the current statewide lockdown.”
  • “Pelosi suggests U.S. should have ‘shut the door’ on American citizens coming back from China.”
  • “Dr. Scott Atlas, the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, publishes a column that lists ‘five key facts’ that are ‘being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown’.” Decide for yourself.
  • “Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes. Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn’t even know they were infected.”
  • The phrase “unmitigated gall” seems apt: “‘World should have listened to WHO’ on coronavirus: Director General Tedros.” The replies do not hold back.
  • “Researchers tracking smartphone data say they recently made a disturbing discovery: For the first time since states began implementing stay-at-home orders in mid-March to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus, Americans are staying home less.”
  • “Clay County Circuit Court Judge Michael McHaney ruled against Pritzker’s executive order, granting a restraining order to temporarily block the stay-at-home restrictions set to take effect Friday, according to local reports.”
  • “A judge has ruled against Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, issuing a restraining order over the extension of the state’s stay-at-home order, putting the statewide plan in jeopardy.”
  • Shelter-in-place extended to end of May for the six S.F. Bay Area counties.

Apr. 28:
  • “A group of volunteers in China who worked to prevent digital records of the coronavirus outbreak from being scrubbed by censors are now targets of a crackdown.”
    • “Cai Wei, a Beijing-based man who participated in one such project on GitHub, the software development website, was arrested together with his girlfriend by Beijing police on April 19. The couple were accused of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble,” a commonly used charge against dissidents in China, according to Chen Kun, the brother of Chen Mei, another volunteer involved with the project. Chen Mei has been missing since that same day.”
  • “China stifles coronavirus research in apparent bid to control narrative, analysts say.”
  • This opinion piece has a lot of links that you can follow to understand the depths of the C.C.P. cover-up and disinformation campaign.
  • A powerful must-read: “COVID-19 has been the worst health care disaster of my 30-year ­career, because of its intensity, duration and potential for lasting impact. The lasting impact is what worries me the most. And it’s why I now believe we should end the lockdown and rapidly get back to work.” Read what he says; decide for yourself.
    • But a hypothesis from ed.: the majority of people who are going to be critically ill or die have already gone through the system; with a quarter of the population exposed as of last week, CV19 has found its way to the majority of people who are going to suffer. There will be more to come, but there is now capacity to deal with them.




  • “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expanded its list of possible symptoms of the virus to include: chills, repeated shaking with chills, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, and new loss of taste or smell.”
  • If NY-NJ-CT were a country, it would be a “shithole country.” Ed. prefers to think of that region as volunteering to perform an experiment that should inform policy throughout the world.
U.S. minus NY-NJ-CT: 
And on a log scale:
  • China has threatened to stop importing wine and beef from Australia if the Morrison government continues to push for an inquiry into the origin of the global coronavirus outbreak.
  • “Politico reported early last week that the European External Action Service (EEAS) would soon be publishing a report about Chinese and Russian disinformation about the coronavirus. But the report didn’t appear for several days. When the public version of the report was finally released on Friday April 24, its criticism of China had been slightly softened and several lines removed, when compared with the version Politico had previously seen.”
  • “The pressure from China ‘allowed the EEAS to get played in the worst possible way. This outcome is better for China than even if the EEAS had published a highly sanitized version of the report to begin with,’ a person with intimate knowledge of the situation told Axios.”

Apr. 29:
    • Warning: this graph may be misleading. Or it may be about right. See this thread here. Warning: complicated.
    • Related: New deaths and infections are being discovered and added to dashboards. These new deaths and infections are showing as happening on the date recorded, NOT the date of the infection or the death, which could have been weeks ago.
      • New York City is one of the few sources adding new deaths on the actual day of death.
      • The result of not doing that is it makes “today’s deaths” number look worse than it is.
    • U.K.’s deaths above are probably more accurately viewed as being spread over the length of the outbreak.
  • The Chinese C.C.P. is unrepentant and pushing its own narrative. Some examples from its state-run outlet:
    • “French papers follow US in attacking China.”
      • “Groundless accusations against China over the COVID-19 pandemic by some French media and right-wing politicians, including major news outlet Le Figaro, opposed the cooperative tendency between France and China as well as the friendship between the two peoples, Chinese analysts said on Sunday.”
    • “US military victim or spreader of virus?”
      • “Even as casualties in the US military caused by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) keep on rising, Chinese military experts noted on Sunday that the US is still reluctant to investigate and disclose when and how these confirmed cases arose. The Pentagon is obligated to publicly answer these questions, the experts said, as it was easy for US soldiers and officers to infect others in their operations across the world, and some even asserted that the US military might have spread the disease in the first place.” [emphasis by ed.]
    • “Independent investigation into China is a manipulation of politics.”
      • “Some people advocating the launch of an independent investigation into how China dealt with the epidemic in its early stages are manipulating the politics, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Monday. […] Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang emphasized that China is the first country that reported the outbreak, but that doesn’t mean China is where the virus had originated. The question of the virus’ origin is a scientific question, and should be dealt with by scientists and professionals, he said. Some politicians are politically manipulating the origin of the virus to attack and discredit other countries. This goes against the will of the people, and their plot will not succeed, Geng said. While the origin of the virus remains a mystery, some forces are deliberately hyping that the virus was from China and trying to use China as a scapegoat, which is totally unreasonable, Chinese experts said.” [emphasis by ed.]
      • “The international community has witnessed the contributions that China has made during the anti-epidemic fight. Since the outbreak, China reported the epidemic to the world at the earliest possible time, promptly shared the virus gene sequence, and worked with other countries in an open, transparent and responsible manner.”
  • “CCP outlets begin 3-part series with [WaPo reporter] Max Blumenthal trashing US ‘disinformation.’ Global Times and People’s Daily begin a three-part series with fringe [sic] American journalist Max Blumenthal, son of former Clinton White House aide and journalist Sydney Blumenthal, who argues that the pandemic’s origination in a Wuhan lab is just an American conspiracy theory, and more.” [See the last entry of Apr. 27 at the link.]
    • Max Blumenthal: “I really thank you for bringing me on. This is the only outlet that has asked me to come on board. It also shows that we are unfortunately in a kind of information war where the truth doesn’t matter.” [Ed wonders why a C.P.P. state-run outlet is the only outlet to talk with him.]
  • “Food insecurity, hunger a growing issue amid COVID-19 pandemic.”
  • “So You’re Going Outside: A Physics-Based Coronavirus Infection Risk Estimator for Leaving the House.”
  • Despite (or because of?) the physics, the analysis is quite readable, and practical. And the physics is good.
  • An interesting and open-minded interview with the Stanford researcher who led the Santa Clara prevalence study (see Apr. 17). Ed. wants to quote the whole thing. Some highlights:
  • “The news is filled with stories of healthy young people who die of coronavirus. But Dr. Ioannidis recently published a paper [a pre-print] with his wife, Despina Contopoulos-Ioannidis, an infectious-disease specialist at Stanford, that showed this to be a classic man-bites-dog story. The couple found that people under 65 without underlying conditions accounted for only 0.7% of coronavirus deaths in Italy and 1.8% in New York City.”
  • “The [Santa Clara] study immediately came under attack. […] Yet most criticism of the Stanford study has been aimed at defending the lockdown mandates against the implication that they’re an overreaction. ‘There’s some sort of mob mentality here operating that they just insist that this has to be the end of the world, and it has to be that the sky is falling. It’s attacking studies with data based on speculation and science fiction,’ he says. ‘But dismissing real data in favor of mathematical speculation is mind-boggling’.”
  • “‘Compared to almost any other cause of disease that I can think of, it’s really sparing young people. I’m not saying that the lives of 80-year-olds do not have value—they do,’ he says. ‘But there’s far, far, far more . . . young people who commit suicide.’ If the panic and attendant disruption continue, he says, ‘we will see many young people committing suicide . . . just because we are spreading horror stories with Covid-19. There’s far, far more young people who get cancer and will not be treated, because again, they will not go to the hospital to get treated because of Covid-19. There’s far, far more people whose mental health will collapse’.”
  • The garbage Washington Post:
  • A opinion writer writes: “Could happen! What will not happen: a follow-up piece that says ‘Why Georgia did not become America’s No. 1 Death Destination, and why my piece revealed that I should not be consulted on any matter more serious than’[…]”
  • Meanwhile, over in Sweden: will it or won’t it bend?

Apr. 30:

May 1:

May 2:

May 3:
  • Ed. finally locates a good excess death visualization - at the C.D.C. Compare this year to the bad flu season of 2017-2018. Also, unlike the NY Times graphic, the axis goes down to zero, so the spike isn’t nearly so dramatic.  Not showing the full axis range is an old trick for making the data lie.
    • Also, unlike the NY Times graphic, the axis includes zero, so the spike, while dramatic, isn’t nearly so totally horrific.  Not showing the full axis range is an old trick for willfully misleading the viewer while assuring her/him that the analysis is data-driven. It is reprehensible.
  • “Gain of Function” research refers to a virus’ ability to leave one species (bats) and acquire the ability to infect humans. U.S. and other countries’ labs deliberately try to create gain-of-function for animal viruses “safely”. The idea is to learn about the virus and even develop a vaccine prior to it gaining function in the real world. This is highly controversial, and moratoriums for this kind of research have come and gone.
    • Gain-of-Function is contentious. “Ebright [an infectious disease expert at Rutgers University], along with many other scientists, has been a vocal opponent of gain-of-function research because of the risk it presents of creating a pandemic through accidental release from a lab.”
    • Dr. Fauci is a big proponent of Gain-of-Function research. When the moratorium on U.S. research was in effect, he authorized a $3.7M grant to the Wuhan lab to continue the work. [Ed. notes: the Asia Times article is very duplicitous. In particular, it conflates Gain-of-Function research with weaponizing viruses, implying that is the only reason for the research. But read it anyway, with a wary eye.]
  • A British team used advanced techniques and a Montana lab tests on six rhesus macaque monkeys to argue that their vaccine is harmless to humans and effective for monkeys. This has allowed them to “schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of [May].” [Ed. notes: the NY Times uses words like “sprinting fastest” and “leap ahead” disingenuously, but getting a vaccine in September instead 2021 is a big deal, admittedly.]
  • “It’s been one month since the first person took the first dose of an experimental coronavirus vaccine in Seattle.” So far so good, but no confirmation of immunity yet.
  • A list of vaccines and treatments in trials or being investigated is here. It is a very complete run-down.
  • Inside a Tennessee prison: “The Tennessee Department of Correction confirmed the positive cases on Friday. Out of the 2,450 total tests, more than [sic] 1,300 staff and inmates tested positive. According to the state, analysis of the test results confirmed that 98% of those who tested positive are asymptomatic.” Breakdown: 
    • Total tested: 2,444
    • Total negative results: 1,145
    • Total positive results: 1,299
    • Pending tests: 13
  • A map of states and their lock-down status. If you get stuck outside a paywall, here is the relevant graphic.
  • “At least 46,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 14 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.” 
    • “Over the last two months, far more people have died in most of these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.” [Ed. notes: cancer and heart disease don’t take a break.]
    • Again, watch out for the NY Times’ vertical axis not including the zero value.
  • “Lab-Made? SARS-CoV-2 Genealogy Through the Lens of Gain-of-Function Research”
  • “Germany’s success in battling the coronavirus pandemic has drawn international attention. The main lessons: Fight the virus locally, and keep politics out of it.”
    • Reading the article, ed. interprets “apolitical” as what we in the U.S. would call “Federalism” - i.e., make decisions at the state level. 
    • U.S. big states are comparable to Germany. So how did they do?
Germany
Texas
California
Population (millions)
83.78
29.00
39.51
Area (sq. mi.)
130000
268,597
163,696
Deaths
6812
863
2180
Deaths per million
81.3
29.8
55.2
    • Texas has big cities and industry, and just over a third the death rate of Germany. California also is similar in size and complexity, and has also significantly outperformed Germany. [Source: 91-DIVOC for CV19 deaths; Wikipedia for the rest.] But the WSJ is not writing articles about how amazing Texas’s response was.
    • And a final observation:

May 4:
  • Inside the early days of the C.C.P. cover-up. “I’ve been trying to screenshot every news article, social media post, and blog post that seems relevant to the coronavirus. In total, I’ve collected nearly 100 censored online posts: 40 published by major news organizations, and close to 60 by ordinary social media users.” 
    • [Ed. opines: The C.C.P. pivoted early on from apparent openness to a massive, state-sponsored censoring and disinformation exercise. Why would they need to do that for a wet-market virus jump?]
  • “Early in March, the world’s cruise-ship operators had ample evidence to believe their fleet of luxury liners were incubators for the new coronavirus. Yet they continued to fill cruise ships with passengers, endangering those aboard and helping spread Covid-19 to the U.S. and around the globe, a Wall Street Journal investigation found.”
  • “Dr. Birx: ‘We Underestimated Very Early On The Number Of Asymptomatic Cases’.”
  • A Danish serology study indicates estimated fatality rate by age, using blood tests to tell who as been infected (and who has not). The study, including people aged 17 through 69 shows 0.082% fatality rate.
  • A Dutch serology study shows fatality rate by age. (Very young and very old excluded). Seems like 1 in 1000 in their 50s succumb.
    • More on the difficult science of serology testing and its inherent statistical challenges here.
  • And yet: 
    • “The new coronavirus appears to be causing sudden strokes in adults in their 30s and 40s who are not otherwise terribly ill, doctors reported.” “There’s growing evidence that Covid-19 infection can cause the blood to clot in unusual ways, and stroke would be an expected consequence of that.”
    • “Robert Stevens, a critical care doctor at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, said strokes are ‘one of the most dramatic manifestations’ of blood-clotting issues that have been reported among [younger] Covid-19 patients. ‘We’ve also taken care of patients in their 30s with stroke and [Covid-19], and this was extremely surprising,’ Stevens said.”
  • Here is a run-down of U.S. media corporations and their ties to China. One theory for the media blatantly parroting of C.C.P. talking points, as well as their general defense of China, is that their parent corporations’ growth depends critically on keeping C.C.P. China as a customer. Read and decide for yourself.
  • The amazing Rick H writes: “The WHO report on Feb 25 claiming there is not evidence of much asymptomatic spread of the virus. Here is an actual quote from the document. ‘So, I know everybody has been out there saying, this thing is spreading everywhere and we just can’t see it, tip of the iceberg. But the data that we do have don’t support that. What it supports is sure, there may be a few asymptomatic cases, and that probably is a real issue, but there’s not huge transmission beyond what you can actually see clinically.’”
    • Rick adds: “The Who announcement is Feb 25. There were over 75K cases in China on Feb 25, and the Chinese government had already implemented a lockdown millions of people. This lockdown action is inconsistent with the statement of asymptomatic transfer not being an important mechanism of spreading the virus.”
  • W.H.O. April 2: “There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission [emphasis: ed.]. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.”
    • See senator Tom Cotton’s warning Jan 28. We were already worried about “contagious but asymptomatic persons.”
  • It is well known that the U.S. and other countries shipped large amounts of medical supplies in the early days of the CV19 outbreak in Wuhan. But now people are starting to put two and two together:
  • “A surgeon and policy analyst tallies up the steep costs of delaying and denying elective surgery and other care during the coronavirus pandemic.”
  • “If you’re trying to figure out why some places have been hit especially hard by the COVID-19 pandemic while others so far seem to be largely unscathed, there is no shortage of hypotheses. But for each seemingly plausible explanation, there are counterexamples that complicate the story.” We may never understand how this bug works.

May 5:
  • How could the NY Times get simple facts wrong? Why not report the gold standard? Why compile their own data?
NY Times facts and data

91-DIVOC.com facts and data
    • The Times tells us: “Every day since April 2, there have been at least 22,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths.” What does that seem to say? 
      • 91-DIVOC shows three peaks: Apr. 16 (Saturday) with 4,391 new deaths; Apr. 23 (Saturday) with 3,332 new deaths, and Apr. 29 (Friday) with 2,612 new deaths.
    • Please recall that, on April 14, the C.D.C. issued guidelines to count probable deaths in U.S. totals. Worldometer states: “Following new CDC guidelines: ‘As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths’.” [See entry at Apr. 16 above.]
    • Once again, the only statistic that matters is excess deaths. Unfortunately, the C.D.C.’s report is more than 10 days in arrears. 
  • “The U.S. government, spending big to combat the coronavirus, is set to borrow a record $2.99 trillion in the second quarter - more than five times its quarterly borrowing at the height of the 2008 financial crisis.” $4.5 trillion this fiscal year.
  • Ed. reported that Brazil was doing well on Apr. 24. Now, things are going less well.
  • Did ed. mention he disavows Harvard University? “Harvard University canceled a panel discussion on Hong Kong protests because the event coincided with the university president’s meet-and-greet with Chinese president Xi Jinping, according to a former university scholar.”
    • “Teng Biao, a former fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s human rights center, attempted to host a panel discussion on Chinese human rights issues in 2015. A vice dean at Harvard Law School, however, ordered him in February of that year to cancel the event because it would have been "embarrassing" for the university, according to Teng.”
  • “Dr. Anthony Fauci, the scientific face of America’s pandemic response, dismissed the theory that coronavirus originated in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting the president and his Secretary of State in an escalating confrontation with China.” [Ed opines: he is not an expert in this new realm of intrigue and cover-up, and he has a $3.7M conflict of interest.  He should stay out of it.]
  • Very early CV19 cases confirmed in Nevada. “The Nevada Health Response team confirmed what the people we spoke to suspected. That they got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January, and the illness was COVID-19.”
  • “A French hospital which has retested old samples from pneumonia patients discovered that it treated a man who had Covid-19 [on] Dec. 27, nearly a month before the French government confirmed its first cases.”
  • Survey: “40% Of Americans Will Avoid Public After Pandemic Ends.”
    • “The survey asked 1,000 U.S. adults how they see life after the coronavirus. More than four in five (82%) ‘said they are now more aware of, and concerned about, cleaning protocols in public areas,’ StudyFinds reported. ‘Additionally, 58% are more suspicious about their friends’ and family’s hygiene habits. Next year’s Thanksgiving could get interesting’.”
  • “While 43% of voters nationwide say ‘Yes,’ it’s time to get back to work, 38% say ‘No,’ it’s not. Another 19% are ‘unsure,’ according to the survey of 1,000 voters conducted April 30 and May 3, 2020.” 
    • “But, 71% of conservatives say it’s time for the country to return to work, compared to just 30% of moderates. Only 14% of liberals say it’s time to get back to work – 69% say it is not time (17% unsure).”
    • [Ed asks: what is the split among people who can safely work from home, and those who must go out in the real world to make money? Ed considers this is likely the most difficult decision he has seen leaders face in ed’s adult lifetime.]
  • “Several FedEx Corp. workers at the company’s Newark, N.J., air hub have died due to complications of the coronavirus, a sign of the toll that the outbreak has taken on front-line delivery workers.” The young and healthy are not immune. “At least eight FedEx workers have died after experiencing symptoms of coronavirus, an investigation by The Commercial Appeal and The Bergen Record found.” The N.J. hub has around 2100 employees. It is not clear how many of the eight worked there, or elsewhere in the country.  FedEx has six hubs.
  • Via Instapundit, a must-read full of clear thinking and gentle wisdom, but ultimately merely a point of view. 
    • “The idea behind bending the curve wasn’t that we would bend the curve until there were no more cases. Indeed, it was expressed that we might end up with a similar number of cases, but that by spreading them out we would lower the number of fatalities. This, then, is something different: The idea that we should use the shutdowns to eradicate the virus as best we can, and that weighing lives against the economy reflects a choice tantamount to sacrificing some portion of the population.” […] 
    • “We engage in a similar cost-benefit exercise every year with the seasonal flu. The stakes appear higher here, which weighs heavily on the benefit side of shutting down compared to seasonal flu. The flu also has a vaccine that allows people to protect themselves against some strains, but as parents quickly learn, the efficacy of that vaccine varies wildly from year to year. But, regardless, we ought not pretend that we don’t weigh a substantial number of lives against the economy every year, and occasionally make decisions that will undoubtedly ‘sacrifice’ people.” […]
    • “This seems to reflect a wider phenomenon of people being driven into ‘teams’ regarding the shutdown. We’ve become polarized on the issue, and indeed this polarization is beginning to reflect our underlying politics. This is an unwelcome development. One of the dynamics about team sports is an inability to see the other side’s point of view; indeed, that is in many ways the point of teams. As this virus develops, flexibility will be crucial in determining how well we come out of it, and a willingness to listen to the viewpoints of those we don’t generally agree with is probably the most important trait we can have. But, as with so many other things, that seems to be one more fatality resulting from this virus.”
  • A reminder. H/T Nancy-Beth G.
  • Watch it roll through:
  • “Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original.”
    • “The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.”
    • [See the visualization that ed. recommended on Apr. 22.]
  • “Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tells reporter Martha Raddatz that China ‘did all that it could to make sure the world didn’t learn in a timely fashion’ about COVID-19.”
    • “Pompeo on Sunday agreed the virus was not man-made […] [He]said that he has ‘no reason to disbelieve’ the intelligence community, adding, ‘I’ve seen their analysis. I’ve seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate.’”
  • China economy: “Demand for goods and services from Chinese companies has plummeted. Foreign orders have fallen more than twice as fast as domestic ones, with orders from the U.S. contracting the most among China’s major trading partners.” [No hard numbers or ratios in the article.]
    • “Crucially, 81% of executives at surveyed companies said they’re worried about a resurgence of the coronavirus in the next three months. And 69% say April’s tepid pace of economic activity may be “as good as it gets” for the next several months.”
  • “China’s COVID-19 figures are not arithmetically sensible. The Communist Party has deliberately made estimation difficult, but, outside of Wuhan city and Hubei province, cases are low by a factor of 100 or more.”
    • “In late January, Chinese media provided information about migrant outflow from Wuhan before quarantine. Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases [emphasis: ed.].”
    • “Along with harshly enforced censorship, the [huge] population can hide tens of thousands of deaths.”
  • “[U.K.] Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking lockdown rules to meet his married lover. Prof Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing.”
    • “On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her home in the south of the capital to spend time with the Government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.” 
    • “[Prof. Ferguson] had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.”
    • “She and her husband live together with their two children in a £1.9 million home, but are understood to be in an open marriage. She has told friends about her relationship with Prof. Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one.”

May 6:
  • A hawkish run-down of purported C.C.P. lies, duplicity, and cover-ups. Read it and decide for yourself. (H/T Instapundit.com)
  • “A CBS News crew pulled medical professionals off the floor at the Cherry Medical Center in Grand Rapids, Michigan, to line up in their vehicles so a CBS film crew would have a long line for their COVID-19 coverage.”
    • “In an interview with the insider, O’Keefe asked the insider: ‘You’re telling me you’re a hundred percent certain that CBS News, CBS News Corporation--national, staged a fake event. They faked the news. They faked the reality and broadcasted that to all of their audience last Friday on ‘CBS This Morning’.’ The insider said to him: “A hundred percent. Absolutely.’”
  • “New York state reported Tuesday that it failed to disclose 1,700 COVID-19 deaths that happened at nursing homes and other facilities providing long-term care to adults, calling further into question how the state is handling the coronavirus pandemic as it applies to some of the state’s most vulnerable populations.”
  • Update on Tennessee prison testing [see entry May 3]: “After the publication of this article, it was reported that one inmate at the Trousdale prison in Tennessee has died of COVID-19. Six others have been hospitalized, and one of them is in serious condition. […] The inmate who died was reportedly 67 years old.”
  • The NY Times in their morning email: “The Trump administration plans to disband its coronavirus task force in the coming weeks. Vice President Mike Pence said the decision was a ‘reflection of the tremendous progress we’ve made as a country’ — despite growing evidence that the outbreak is still raging.”
    • “Vice President Mike Pence, who has led the task force for two months, said it would probably wrap up its work around the end of the May, and shift management of the public health response back to the federal agencies whose work it was created to coordinate.”
  • “President Donald Trump stated Tuesday that Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the two top medical experts on the White House coronavirus task force, will ‘still be involved’ with the administration’s response once the task force is disbanded.”
  • “Under Missouri’s Sunshine Law, members of the public can access records and meetings. Jared Totsch decided to file a Sunshine Law request. When he received the information, he shared the information on Facebook. ‘Here ya go. The gallery of snitches, busybodies, and employees who rat out their own neighbors and employers over the Panic-demic’, the Facebook post stated.”
    • “Residents in Missouri were encouraged to snitch on businesses that broke Gov. Mike Parson’s (R) stay-at-home orders. A website and email address were launched so residents could anonymously report non-essential businesses being open.”
    • “A woman by the name of Patricia was one of the people who reported a non-essential business. She made the decision to report these businesses because she has Lupus and two of her family members are also immuno-compromised. Now she feels like she’s being punished doing what she believes is the right thing.”

    May 7:

    May 8:

    May 9:
    • More on Vitamin D from a team at Northwestern: “Combining COVID-19 patient data and prior work on Vit D and CRP levels, we show that the risk of severe COVID-19 cases among patients with severe Vit D deficiency is 17.3% while the equivalent figure for patients with normal Vit D levels is 14.6% (a reduction of 15.6%).”
      • The authors speculates that Vitamin D’s penchant to slow or suppress cytokine storms in CV19 patients.
      • [Ed notes: Even with a drop of 17% to 14%, ed. still does not like those odds.]

    May 11:

    May 13:
    • A laundry list of all the ways CV19 can mess with a human body.
    • Our garbage media, CNN edition. “Two-thirds of Americans said they would not return to ‘normal life’ until a vaccine becomes available for COVID-19, according to CNN.”
      • “The actual question was ‘How important are each of the following factors to you when thinking about your willingness to return to your normal activities?’ The option ‘availability of a vaccine to prevent COVID-19’ was important to 68 percent of respondents. That’s quite different: A vaccine could be ‘very important’ to people without being absolutely mandatory.”
    • “Stanford University researchers have moderated their controversial estimate of how many people in Santa Clara County were infected by the COVID-19 virus by early April — but stand by their conclusion that the illness was much more widespread than anyone knew. In a revised analysis of a startling study published last month, they now estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara residents were previously infected by the virus but didn’t know it.” [See original entry Apr. 17.]
    • NY Times can do good statistical data presentation when they try. This is a nicely organized run-down of the situation. However, their graphs don’t exactly agree with 91-DIVOC.
    • Speaking of 91-DIVOC, what is up with Sweden?
    New Cases, U.S. and Sweden, normalized by population

    New Deaths, U.S. and Sweden, normalized by population
    • NY Times opinion masquerading as fact. Journalist David Leonhardt fills my inbox each morning with his thoughts. Today: 
      • “So why, then, do Fauci and many other public-health experts sound so worried? Because the United States may be on the cusp of ending the very policies that have caused the recent progress. There have been only two proven approaches to stopping the virus’s spread so far. One is extreme social distancing, like the lockdown that has been in effect across much of the U.S. since March. The other is an intricate program of testing, tracking and quarantining, as parts of Asia have done.” [Emphasis: ed.]
      • This is just not true - see Sweden above. Ed. opines: Why, then, does he say it? Because the decision to open up has become political and he has painted himself into a political corner where opening up has to be wrong.
    • “U.S. authorities denied initial regulatory approval for N95 masks from China’s BYD Co., which had secured huge orders for the product including a $1 billion deal with authorities in California. BYD, an electric-vehicle company, has been racing to transform itself into one of the world’s leading mask makers in light of the global coronavirus pandemic.”
    • “Consumers Seeking Debt Relief Face Overwhelmed Lenders. Borrowers seeking debt relief are encountering jammed phone lines, overflowing inboxes and stretched-thin customer-service departments. Multiple calls to the same lender can yield different answers on the relief programs borrowers qualify for. Sometimes it is taking lenders weeks to reflect the changes on borrowers’ accounts.”
    • “When people finally got to look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study, they found twisted and tangled code. And most of the model’s predictions bear little resemblance to what is actually happening. Some defend the models by saying that their predictions turned out to be wrong only because governments imposed harsher restrictions than the coders expected.” 
      • “If so, we have a perfect experiment. Sweden did not close borders, shut down schools, businesses, restaurants, gyms or shopping centres and did not issue stay at home orders. So it should be the one country where the models fit. Let’s see. . . . At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent.”
      • [via Instapundit.com]
    • “Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton announced Monday that they have found five different cases in five different counties that the date of onset of symptoms was in January.”
    • “Of the nearly 80,000 deaths from the virus in this country as of Saturday afternoon, nearly 48,700, or about 60 percent, had occurred in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”
      • “Those concentrated numbers are reflective of a virus that seems to strike noticeably heavier in some locations than others, a pattern that has borne out in numerous countries around the world.”
    • “Two men were arrested after attacking Target employees in Los Angeles who confronted them about not wearing face masks in the store, police said. Phillip Hamilton, 31, and Paul Hamilton, 29, entered the store around 10:20 a.m. without masks on, police said. Video of the incident allegedly shows them being escorted out by employees after they refused to wear the protective gear.”
    • “Male coronavirus patients with low testosterone levels are more likely to die from COVID-19, German hospital finds.”
    • “Obesity may be one of the most important predictors of severe coronavirus illness, new studies say. […] Although people with obesity frequently have other medical problems, the new studies point to the condition in and of itself as the most significant risk factor, after only older age, for being hospitalized with COVID-19.” 
    • “Trials have begun on what researchers say could be a stopgap vaccination against the new coronavirus, testing a century-old tuberculosis vaccine on thousands of people including police in India, health-care workers in Texas and elderly people in the Netherlands. The trials intend to determine whether the vaccine known as BCG, which is used in most of the world outside the U.S. and Western Europe, offers protection against Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.” [H/T/ Dan G]
    • This is not how you do “open and transparent”. “Days before the Wuhan wet market was bleached and whistleblowers were punished and virus samples were destroyed, someone at the high-security Wuhan Institute of Virology censored its virus database in an apparent attempt to disassociate the laboratory from a novel-coronavirus outbreak that would become a global pandemic.”
      • “Substantial alterations to the WIV database [were made] on the evening of Dec. 30, the day before the World Health Organization was alerted to the outbreak of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.”
    • “The San Antonio City Council unanimously passed a resolution condemning the use of the term ‘Chinese virus’, saying that it ‘encourages hate crimes and incidents against Asians.’”
    • We have another week of data for excess deaths.
    New York State social mobility decrease as a function of time

    Georgia social mobility decrease 
    (Note y-axis will differ from state to state)
    • “Beijing at first appeared to be homing in fast on the source of the virus.” 
      • “More than four months later, Chinese officials have yet to share with the world any data from the animals Mr. Lu and others say were sampled. Beijing now appears to be stalling international efforts to find the source of the virus amid an escalating U.S. push to blame China for the pandemic, according to interviews with dozens of health experts and officials.”
      • “Initially, Chinese officials seemed to be homing in quickly on the origins of the pathogen, they said. China’s disease-control agency said in January it suspected the virus had come from a wild animal at the Huanan market and that identifying the beast was ‘only a matter of time.’ Since then, Chinese officials have increasingly questioned whether the virus originated in the country and rejected calls for an international investigation from U.S., Australian and European officials.”

    May 14:
    • Pennsylvania nursing homes: “This month a consortium of Mid-Atlantic newspapers under the USA Today Network detailed the policy in Pennsylvania and other states that’s ordering nursing homes to admit medically stable residents infected with the coronavirus.”
    • “Mouthwash has the potential to protect against COVID-19 infection by killing the coronavirus before it can infect human cells, according to a new report. Coronaviruses belong to the class of ‘enveloped viruses’, meaning they are covered by a fatty layer that is vulnerable to certain chemicals. A team of international researchers say mouthwash could destroy the outermost layer or ‘envelope’ of the virus, preventing its replication in the mouth and throat.”
    • An excellent quick read about the “damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t” place where we are stuck, about the Stanford virologist who conducted the Major League Baseball virology study. “There is no safe option. If you think that having a lockdown will provide you safety, you are mistaken. Because the problem is this lockdown has had enormous negative effects on the health of people in the United States and around the world.”
      • Ed. opines: And you can stay locked down, but until you get the disease, you’re still at risk -- no matter how long you lock yourself down. So pray for a vaccine or an effective treatment protocol, or hide forever, or live free.
      • As Ed. said on May 5, this is “likely the most difficult decision he has seen leaders face in ed’s adult lifetime.”
    • Senator Burr has resigned Senate Intelligence Chief position, shortly after being served with a warrant and having his cell phone taken by the F.B.I. He was the Republican Senate intelligence chief.
    • “Florida, a state with 2 million more people than New York, had just 714 nursing home deaths, 13% of the number in New York.”

    May 15:
    • Nursing homes in NY State: 5300 dead. “The New York State Department of Health acknowledged that its recent reporting does not fully reflect the known carnage coronavirus has caused among nursing home and adult care residents.”
      • “The revelation comes as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is under fire for his policies regarding nursing homes amid the coronavirus pandemic.”
      • “New York is the only state with large coronavirus outbreaks among its long-term care facilities that doesn’t count residents who died at a hospital.”
      • “New York quietly changed the way it reports long-term care fatalities around April 28. In early May, those reports quietly began omitting long-term care residents who died of coronavirus in hospitals.”
    • Remember the condemnation of Georgia? [See entry at Apr. 29.]

    Condemnation based on journalist’s personal prediction of the future.


    What the future actually turned out to be.
      • It is important to understand these data, because while no one wants to be the 0.017% or the 0.003% in one’s age group that dies, one might not want to kill one’s economy to avoid that, either. Data that lead to insights are crucial.

    May 16:
    • Update: “Chicago’s Cook County has surpassed Queens as the county with the most reported coronavirus cases in the United States, according to a report and the latest available public data.”
      • Ed. failed his own requirement to normalize by population. Cook County has 2.4 times as many people as Queens County (5.15 million v 2.73 million). Oops.
    • “U.S. officials are preparing to begin checking passengers’ temperatures at roughly a dozen airports as soon as next week, as the coronavirus pandemic has heightened travel anxieties, according to people familiar with the matter.”
      • Ed. opines: this seems really late.
    • “President Trump said the U.S. is considering restoring partial funding to the World Health Organization after he froze contributions to the group over what he said was its mismanagement of the coronavirus response.”
      • “The president on Saturday morning said his administration is weighing a proposal that would provide funding to the group on par with what China is contributing. The move, Mr. Trump said, would reduce overall U.S. funding to the group by 90%.”
    • Increasing the number of tests does weird things to statistics. If your goal is to use the statistics for political hits, you can certainly do that, no matter what your angle is. Here is a primer.
      • Tests per million population: U.S.A. is mid-pack.  NY State leads the world, and other countries that got hammered are close.  This is as it should be: put your limited testing where the outbreaks are worst.
      • We can see that, sorted by deaths/million population, the list’s order doesn’t change much. Germany is the notable exception, having gotten their testing ramped up significantly earlier than other countries. They have moved down the rankings when sorted by deaths.
      • Next, we sort by total cases. U.S.A. has zoomed to near the top. But does that matter? Is lots of cases bad? Or good? 
      • Because, when we measure deaths/case, we see that the U.S.A. is significantly down the chart, right next to Germany. 
      • So let’s conclude. Germany, per population, does more testing, has fewer positives, and a lower death . If their goal is to keep the disease away (an endless task but the logical first step), they are outperforming the world. But who is second? U.S.A. does more testing per death than any other country save Germany. U.S.A. testing is finding tons of mild cases that don’t result in death. Belgium’s testing is finding tons of cases and tons of deaths
        • So ed. opines: for long-term success, a region needs lots of people exposed and alive. U.S.A.’s high number of cases and low number of deaths per case is exactly what is needed.
        • (All data from Worldometer and crunched by ed.)

    May 17:
    • Here is a gut-wrenching opinion piece about the plight of the vulnerable elderly at below-par retirement homes. This is not about good homes. Apparently there is an underclass of these homes, and the stories are not good. Read it if for no other reason that to become familiar with the term “throwaway culture”.
    • “Adding zinc to hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin might help the drug combination resolve some COVID-19 symptoms, a study posted online this week said, though experts say the two-drug treatment’s benefit is questionable and carries health risks.”
      • Readers of this blog know that ed. is frustrated that this is, only now, finally getting a tiny bit of press.
    • “The Unexamined Model Is Not Worth Trusting.”
      • “I’m a virologist, and modelling complex processes is part of my day-to-day work. It’s not uncommon to see long and complex code for predicting the movement of an infection in a population, but tools exist to structure and document code properly. The Imperial College effort suggests an incumbency effect: with their outstanding reputations, the college and Ferguson possessed an authority based solely on their own authority. The code on which they based their predictions would not pass a cursory review by a Ph.D. committee in computational epidemiology.”
    • “Imperial College model used to justify UK and U.S. lockdowns deemed ‘buggy mess’ & ‘total unreliable’ by experts.”

    May 18:
    • “A new report from the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) peels back the curtain on just how much the nation’s preeminent public health institutions have pivoted to controlling lifestyle choices over preventing infectious diseases such as COVID-19.”
      • From the report: “The amount of money allocated to the CDC has grown along with its ever-expanding portfolio of issues. Whereas in 1987 the agency received just under $590 million in federal appropriations, today it spends around $8 billion on all manner of topics, many of which are only tangentially linked to health. In addition to infectious illnesses like malaria, HIV, and influenza, CDC also maintains projects on alcohol consumption, tobacco use, traffic accidents, sports injuries, domestic violence, and gun control. These things can impact an individual’s health and wellness, of course, but they are far afield from the CDC’s original purpose of preventing the spread of dangerous pathogens.”
    • “Remdesivir, an antiviral medication that was developed by the biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences, has been widely touted as the most promising drug to treat COVID-19, even though—so far—the new and expensive drug does not seem to be terribly effective at fighting the disease.”
      • “The anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, on the other hand, is cheap, has been used safely for decades, and has shown great promise as a weapon in the fight against the coronavirus—yet after President Trump mentioned it as a promising potential treatment for the disease, the media immediately blasted him for touting an ‘unproven’ and potentially unsafe drug.”
      • Investigative reporter Sharyl Attkisson “spoke with cardiologist Dr. William O’Neill, a medical director at the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit, Michigan, where both remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine are being studied. O’Neill told Attkisson that the media’s attempts to “disprove and discredit” hydroxychloroquine has been ‘very harmful.’ ‘I think those of us that are actually involved in the scientific endeavor feel that there is some value to it and it has to be tested,’ he said.”
      • Please do read the whole thing. Ed. cannot quote it all.
    • “More than 100,000 small businesses have permanently shuttered within just two months as pandemic lockdowns devastated the nation’s economy landing 36 million Americans out of work, according to a new survey this week.” Report here.
    • “Coalition of 116 countries back Australia’s push for independent coronavirus inquiry.”
    • “The World Health Organization (WHO) is to raise the question of Taiwan’s participation as an observer at the World Health Assembly (WHA), which opens virtually on Monday, before one of its committees.” Well, it’s a step in the right direction.
    • “Moderna, Inc. today announced outstanding early data for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate, in a trial led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (most Americans will recognize NIAID as Dr. Anthony Fauci’s agency), which is part of the National Institutes of Health.”
      • “The trial is looking for the best dose, and tested three dose levels on 15 patients each, for a total of 45 patients, two administrations of vaccine for each. Every patient developed some antibodies within two weeks of the first dose. Eight patients progressed to 43 days, which is two weeks after the second dose, and all 8 developed antibodies at or higher than levels seen in patients who have recovered from Covid-19. The vaccine candidate was generally safe and well-tolerated, and a Phase 3 trial (the trial designed to prove safety and effectiveness to statistical significance, which is needed for regulatory approval) will begin in July.”
    • “Epidemiologist who opposes COVID-19 lockdowns gets censored on YouTube. A vocal opponent of coronavirus lockdown measures is the latest victim of social media companies’ crackdown on opinions that are contrary to their sensibilities.”
      • “CEO Susan Wojcicki had told CNN ‘anything that goes against [World Health Organization] recommendations would be a violation of our policy and so removal is another really important part of our policy.’”
      • You can read his popular anti-lockdown, pro-get-it-over-with piece here.
    • “When they compared the results when HCQ was given with zinc to results when it was given without zinc, those who were given HCQ with zinc had much lower death rates and faster recoveries than those who were given HCQ without zinc, but only if the HCQ-zinc treatment were given before the patients became so severely sick that they required intensive care [italics from original].”
      • “The NYU team began its study of hospitalized patients without zinc, but midway through, they read the research, which holds that the HCQ-zinc combination can be more effective, so they added zinc sulfate supplements to their HCQ-azithromycin treatment.”
      • Another journalist has wondered about the money surrounding the very unproven, very new drug Remdesivir [see today, just above]. Maybe this is a conspiracy theory. Maybe it’s a real issue. Decide for yourself. But ed. is flummoxed as to why Fauci insists on running a trials only without zinc.
    • “Officials in Northeastern China Sacked as Locals Describe Escalating Virus Outbreak.”
      • “Mr. Peng, a resident of Jilin city, also described the current state of panic: ‘People are crazily shopping for food and medicines… Prices have increased dramatically.’”
    • “The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday vowed to launch an independent investigation into how the group responded to what became the COVID-19 pandemic.”
      • “‘I will initiate an independent evaluation at the earliest appropriate moment’, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.”

    May 19:
    • “President Donald Trump said Monday he has been taking the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and zinc to prevent being infected with COVID-19. ‘I happen to be taking it,’ Trump said during a roundtable event at the White House. ‘A lot of good things have come out. You’d be surprised at how many people are taking it, especially the front-line workers.’”
    • “A new at-home coronavirus test kit just got emergency approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. The sample collection kit, from home testing company Everlywell, will be available by prescription only. An online questionnaire reviewed by a healthcare provider will screen potential patients.”
      • “The FDA has given emergency authorization to two other at-home COVID-19 testing kits. The first was LabCorp’s nasal swab kit, which the company recently made widely available after prioritising frontline healthcare workers during its rollout.”
    • “The argument that vitamin D deficiency may contribute to more severe cases of Covid is gaining ground. It is now reaching the point where it is surprising that we are not hearing from leading medical officials and politicians that people should consider taking supplements to ensure they have sufficient vitamin D.”
      • “Vitamin D deficiency has long been known to coincide with a greater frequency or severity of upper-respiratory tract infections, or colds.”
      • [See May 8 entry above.]
    • 108 million in lock-down in Communist China. “Chinese officials have imposed quarantine restrictions on two cities in the province of Jilin located in northeast China. Jilin is part of a wider province located in the Dongbei region - which is home to more than 100 million residents. The threat level in the area has been raised to ‘high-risk’ by health authorities.”
    • “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that individuals who reject an offer from their company to return to their jobs after they are laid off due to the pandemic are no longer considered eligible to receive unemployment benefits from the federal government.”
    • US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Prevent Chinese Companies From Supplying Airport Equipment. “A bipartisan group of lawmakers has introduced a new bill to secure U.S. airports from national security threats posed by airport equipment such as passenger boarding bridges made by foreign adversaries, namely China.”
    • Correlation does not imply causality, but there is correlation between length of lock-down and performance. 
      • But: Ed’s own state of California lands in Group 1, but performs better than any groups performance.
        • 206 cases / 100k
        • 8 deaths / 100k
        • 6.3% positive tests
      • But ed. opines, why is this surprising? Wouldn’t one expect a state hit harder to lock down harder? 
        • What is surprising is that Californians are so docile and easily cowed.
    • Related: Performance comparison between San Francisco and New York City. The demographics are very similar.  The results are horribly different.
    • Spain IFR analysis:
      • If you knew these numbers in February, what would your leadership response have been?

    May 20:
      • Related: “Cuomo also said in the opening of Monday’s Cuomo Prime Time that ‘the president knows that Hydroxychloroquine is not supported by science. He knows it has been flagged by people in his own administration’ and called it a distraction from ‘his lack of a plan or real solutions.’” [Ed. guesses one could truthfully say that the drug is not supported by the incredibly politicized crap that is supposed to be science.]
    • Ed. has a lot of work to do, because he found a new timeline with information that can update this one.  So here we go… See baby poo color text at the dates below.
      • Jan. 9, 10, 11, 13(2), 14, 17(2), 21(3), 22(4), 24(5), 25(2), 26, 27(7), 28(3), 29(5), 30(5).
      • Feb. 2(2), 3(2), 5(2), 6, 9, 11, 12(2), 14, 17, 18(2), 20, 22, 24, 25, 29.
      • Mar. 3, 4(2), 6, 9, 10, 11(4), 13(6)
    • “California is relaxing some of its reopening criteria, and that could mean most of the state may soon be offering services such as dining at restaurants.”
      • “The criteria announced Monday by Gov. Gavin Newsom applies to counties that want to reopen faster than the state. While retail may open for curbside pickup statewide, restrictions on dining in at restaurants and other services are still in place statewide.”
      • “‘Bottom line is: People can go at their own pace, and we are empowering our local health directors and county officials that understand their local communities and conditions,’ Newsom said.”
    • “States Step Up Re-openings, Hoping to Limit Economic Damage.”
    • “Nearly Half of U.S. Households Have Lost Income Since Lockdowns Started.”
    • “Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. scientists and their academic collaborators published data in Nature Communications showing the company’s experimental DNA-based coronavirus vaccine induced immune responses in laboratory mice and guinea pigs.”
    • “In the latest sign of the coronavirus pandemic’s financial devastation, lenders in April had nearly 15 million credit cards in “financial hardship” programs, such as deferral programs that let borrowers temporarily stop making payments.”
    • “Some scientists are looking at a new way to curb the spread of the coronavirus as lockdowns are lifted: focus on avoiding superspreading events. The theory is that banning mass public events where hundreds of attendants can infect themselves in the space of a few hours, along with other measures such as face masks, might slow the pace of the virus’s progression to a manageable level even as shops and factories reopen.”
      • Ed.: It’s so obvious that it might just work!
    • “As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares for a key political meeting that will commence on May 21, authorities have enacted strict measures in Beijing to prevent an outbreak of the CCP virus among top officials.”
      • “On May 17, Lu Yan, the deputy mayor of Beijing, said the city had entered ‘wartime’ preparations to prevent the virus from spreading.”
    • “Research from Columbia University has found ultraviolet light can kill the virus known as COVID-19 in a laboratory setting and [New York State] MTA officials are putting it to the test on trains, buses and in employee areas.”
      • “UV light has been used in hospitals and front-line facilities to battle viruses. It has been around for more than a century, but these most recent lab tests were done by Dr. David Brenner, the Director of the Center for Radiological Research at Columbia University.”
    • “There is no evidence that the virus that causes COVID-19 can be spread to people through the water in pools, hot tubs, spas, or water play areas, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.”
      • [Ed.: but you can get it while in a pool by getting sneezed on.]

    May 21:
    • “Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.”
      • “Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to test negative, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.”
      • “Patients in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients.”
    • Wait, what?!?!  
      • “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19.”
      • “The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.”
        • “A negative test result means something different for each test. If somebody tests negative on a viral test, a doctor can be relatively confident that they are not sick right now; if somebody tests negative on an antibody test, they have probably never been infected with or exposed to the coronavirus. (Or they may have been given a false result—antibody tests are notoriously less accurate on an individual level than viral tests.) The problem is that the CDC is clumping negative results from both tests together in its public reporting.”
    • “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now says the novel virus ‘does not spread easily’ from ‘touching surfaces or objects’ — but experts warn that doesn’t mean it’s no longer necessary to take "practical and realistic" precautions in stopping the spread of COVID-19.”
    • “China’s Communist Party is again seizing factory lines churning out the world’s supply of medical safety gear — sparking fears the country is preparing for a second wave of the coronavirus, American traders in China told The [New York] Post.”
      • “‘We hear how China is up and running and the virus is past them, so I asked, “What are they ordering 250 million gowns for?” and of course no one is talking.’”
    • “Minnesota nursing homes, already the site of 81% of COVID-19 deaths, continue taking in infected patients.”
    • Next door, in Michigan: “Under Whitmer’s executive order, which she just extended yesterday for a week, any nursing home with less than 80% capacity will be forced to create special COVID units, regardless of their ability to protect their other patients.”
      • “Too bad if Granny gets it.”
    • “UK bulk buys hydroxychloroquine as potential Covid-19 treatment.”
      • The article takes pains to inform us that the purchase is in case the unproven drug is shown somehow to be effective.
    • “It’s unlikely that COVID-19 crossed species lines at a Wuhan, China, wet market that China originally pinpointed as the source of the global pandemic, a study of the disease found. The study’s authors, Canadian evolutionary biologist Shing Zhan and MIT molecular biologist Yujia Alina Chan, found that ‘phylogenetic tracking suggests’ that the virus ‘had been imported into the market by humans.’”
      • “‘Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission,’ the authors wrote in the study.”
      • “‘The sudden appearance of a highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 presents a major cause for concern that should motivate stronger international efforts to identify the source and prevent near future reemergence. The publicly available genetic data does not point to cross-species transmission of the virus at the market,” Chan and Zhan told the Daily Mail on Saturday. […] [The] possibility that a non-genetically engineered precursor could have adapted to humans while being studied in a laboratory should be considered, regardless of how likely or unlikely,’ the study also stated.” [Emphasis added by ed.]
    • “Doctors in recent weeks have reported a rising number of cases of the deadly inflammatory syndrome, which currently is known as Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated with Covid-19. The condition typically afflicts children who develop it within days or weeks after they become infected with the new coronavirus.”
      • Read about a little girl who went into cardiac arrest. Twice. But she will make a full recovery.

    May 22:
    • “Australian researchers see virus design manipulation.”
      • “The preliminary report of the study, which is now being peer-reviewed, is based on computer modeling of the virus’ ability to infect various animals, including humans. It was published May 13 on the Cornell University website arXiv.org, which is used for discussion of pre-publication papers.”
      • “Nikolai Petrovsky, the lead researcher, said his team suspects human manipulation in Wuhan because of the unmatched ability of the virus’ protruding spike to infect human cells.”
    • “Another 2.4 Million People Filed Unemployment Claims Last Week.”
    • The nursing home debacle and concomitant blame game are in full swing in Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the grim reaper of them all, New York.

    May 26:
    • Rules for thee but not for me, Michigan edition: “‘This morning, I was out working when the office called me, there was a gentleman on hold who wanted his boat in the water before the weekend,’ Dowker posted. ‘Being Memorial weekend and the fact that we started working three weeks late means there is no chance this is going to happen.’ ‘Well our office personnel had explained this to the man and he replied, ‘I am the husband to the governor, will this make a difference?’”
      • Worse: “The incident came after Whitmer urged people during a press conference last week to not travel to the area if they did not live there.” And yet, “Google maps shows that the area is nearly a 200 mile drive from the governor’s mansion in Lansing, where Whitmer and her husband live.”
    • Rules for thee but not for me, Virginia edition: “Northam faces criticism for Virginia Beach visit without a mask. […] Photos circulating on social media showed Northam […] without a face covering on while visiting the oceanfront over the Memorial Day weekend. He stood in close proximity to several beachgoers for photos, breaking social distancing.”
    • Rules for thee but not for me, Massachusetts edition: “Lt. Governor Karyn Polito Hosts Dozens Of Friends At $1.5 Million Lakefront Shrewsbury Mansion Despite Social Distancing And Mask Orders.”
    • Rules for thee but not for me, U.K. edition: “Dominic Cummings -- a top aide to Boris Johnson in London -- has spent the last several days explaining why he [broke lockdown and] drove more than 260 miles to his parents’ house in Durham before coming down with Covid-19. He said he was trying to ensure his child had care if he and his wife were ill with the virus.” It is not going well for him.
    • Many developing countries are easing restrictions on their economies while new infections and deaths are growing 
      • Poor countries weigh easing lockdowns. Developing nations are starting to reopen while new coronavirus infections and deaths are still growing, rather than slowing. Health experts say the timing risks an explosive rise in cases.
      • [Ed. opines: if one’s only concern was CV19 deaths, this is how one would phrase it.  Reality is much more complicated.] 
    • “New estimates released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that COVID-19 may have an infection fatality rate as low as 0.26%, a number that is double the seasonal flu but significantly lower than earlier estimates.”
      • “Over the past several weeks […] the estimates of the fatality rate have brightened considerably. Driven in part by large-scale serology tests, which have consistently indicated that the disease is far more widespread and consequently less deadly than it initially seemed, scientists have lately been revising their fatality rate assumptions down significantly.”
      • [Ed says: it’s still an unpredictable and horrible killer with lots we don’t understand.]
    • From Worldometer: Historical Account of the Initial Estimates
    • “The Chinese lab eyed as a potential source of COVID-19 has admitted having three live strains of bat coronavirus on-site — but insisted none are the source of the global pandemic. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has since 2004 “isolated and obtained some coronaviruses from bats,” its director Wang Yanyi said in an interview that aired Saturday, according to Agence France-Presse. ‘Now we have three strains of live viruses… But their highest similarity to SARS-CoV-2 only reaches 79.8 percent,’ Yanyi said, referring to the coronavirus strain that causes COVID-19.”
    • The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has a reputation to maintain, and they are maintaining it. That court “has backed California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order banning in-church services to blunt the spread of coronavirus, rejecting an argument from clerics that the governor is treading on their First Amendment right to free exercise of their religious beliefs.”
    • “President Donald Trump has suspended travel from Brazil to the U.S. as the coronavirus pandemic worsens in South America’s largest nation.”
    • “Didier Raoult, a 68-year-old infectious-disease specialist [see entries at Feb. 25, Mar. 16, Mar. 27], has emerged as a standard-bearer for those who support the use of hydroxycholoroquine to treat the growing number of people sickened by the new coronavirus, despite what health authorities say is inconclusive evidence that it is effective.” [Emphasis: ed.]
      • “In YouTube videos and on Twitter, Dr. Raoult has argued that physicians and governments should use hydroxychloroquine widely now, and not wait for serious clinical trials. His weekly YouTube updates usually get more than one million views and he has hundreds of thousands of followers on Twitter. ‘Some people have gone crazy with methodology,’ he said in a video message this week. ‘Our objective as doctors is to make people better.’”
      • It gets worse: 
        • “As of Saturday, Dr. Raoult had given the medication, often in association with an antibiotic, to more than 2,400 people sickened by the coronavirus, according to a tally released by the Marseille hospital where he works. Ten of those patients have died. 
        • Dr. Raoult recommends administering the drug at an early stage, before Covid-19 causes serious damage to patients’ lungs.”
      • Ed begs: Please, for the love of Pete, stop being political with this drug. Stop it. People are dying.
        • Ed adds: Remember, hydroxychloroquine is not a new, dangerous drug. It is routinely prescribed millions of times per year for rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. Yes, it has side-effects and risks. (As does toughing out CV19.) Those risks are known and navigable; some patients will not good candidates. That is not the same as “unproven and dangerous,” and stalling on broader use is political and criminal.
        • Don’t forget the zinc.
    • Hmm…  “An Oxford University vaccine trial has only a 50 per cent chance of success because coronavirus is fading so rapidly in Britain, a project co-leader has warned.”
      • 91-DIVOC:
    • “One in five English people believe that Jews created COVID-19 to collapse the economy for financial gain, a newly-released study by a team of researchers at the University of Oxford has revealed. The finding came as part of a wider survey in attitudes toward the virus and the measures taken to prevent its spread, which found that there was a strong undercurrent of mistrust over official advice on the virus within the public.”
    • Deaths per million people:
      1. Downstate NY (1,771.86)
      2. Belgium (791.76)
      3. Spain (573.38)
      4. UK (558.95)
      5. Italy (524.58)
      6. France (415.90)
      7. Sweden (391.87)
      8. Netherlands (338.01)
      9. Ireland (309.86)
      10. USA sans downstate NY (233.44)
      • How many of the countries in this list have their equivalent of downstate NY?  Ed. does not know, and doesn’t know where to get the data.
    • A well-written, factual, compassionate, non-terror-generating, politically neutral article from the Washington Post is definitely worth a read. H/T college friend Andy C.
      • Ed. is very sorry about the obnoxious paywall. Try Apple News on your phone.
    • CDC slowly compiles data for its excess death visualization.  And there is a lag in reporting.  That means the bars for a week get taller as the death reports trickle in.
      • Here are some screen-grabs from past entries in this blog, so that the reader can understand how the data “fill in” as the weeks age.
    Grabbed May 26.
    The week of the first + ends Mar. 28.
    The last week shown ends May 9.
    Grabbed May 13.
    The week of the first + ends Mar. 28.
    The last week shown ends May 2.
    Grabbed May 3.
    The week of the first + ends Mar. 28.
    The last week shown ends Apr. 25.

    May 28:
      • A long quote from a Florida bureaucrat is included in the article.  Ed. will quote it here: “Every day on these calls [with hospitals], I would hear the same comments and questions around, ‘We need to get these individuals returned back to the nursing home,’” said Mary Mayhew, who runs Florida’s Agency for Healthcare Administration. “We drew a hard line early on. I said repeatedly to the hospital, to the CEOs, to the discharge planners, to the chief medical officers, ‘I understand that for 20 years it’s been ingrained, especially through Medicare reimbursement policy, to get individuals in and out. That is not our focus today. I’m not going to send anyone back to a nursing home who has the slightest risk of being positive.’ What we said constantly is let’s not have two cases become 20 or five become 50. If you don’t manage this individual as you return them back, you will have far more being transferred back to the hospital’.” [Emphasis: ed.]
    • “Could nearly half the population not already infected with SARS-CoV-2 be immune to it from having already contracted other forms of coronavirus in recent years? That is one implication of a major study conducted by over a dozen researchers from several microbiology and immunology institutions in the U.S.”
      • “The hypothesis is that numerous common colds are forms of coronavirus and that a significant percentage of the population that has already contracted those forms of coronavirus have cross-immunity to COVID-19.”
      • This is one very complicated situation with one very confusing bug.
    • Rules for thee but not for me, Illinois edition: “Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his family have been spending time on their farms in Florida and Wisconsin while Pritzker keeps the state on lockdown.”

    May 29:
    • “Experiment to see how germs spread at a buffet. They applied fluorescent paint to the hands of 1 person, then had a group of 10 people dine. In 30 min the paint had transferred to every individual and was on the faces of 3.”

    May 31:
    And now a note from our “sponsor”.  Blogger is a free platform with a (very thin) set of free development tools.  I expect to get what I pay for.  However, Blogger has recently decided to redesign and launch 2.0.  It is total garbage.   In addition to having a “sleek, modern design” that requires tons of mouse motion and guessing at trendy icons, basic things like font selection don’t work anymore.  They ask for feedback and bug reports, but hide the access point (link) to do that.  Now I have to hack the HTML to get it right.
    • Politicized science is worse than no science. “Dozens of scientists have raised concerns over a large-scale study of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine published in the Lancet that led to the World Health Organization suspending clinical trials of the anti-viral drugs as a potential treatment for COVID-19.”
      • “[Lead author Mandeep Mehra of the Brigham and Women’s Hospital] released a statement saying the authors of the study had initiated an academic review of their work, adding that it had been undertaken ‘in the absence of a large, robust and publicly available dataset on hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine’.  ‘As articulated in the study, the authors have underscored the importance and value of randomized, clinical trials and articulated that such trials will be necessary before any conclusions can be reached,’ he said.”
      • Data integrity issues highlighted “included discrepancies in the data for Australia, where they said there were more deaths recorded in the hospitals covered by the study than official figures for the entire country.”
      • So Mehra et al. conducted a retroactive study using shaky data with the excuse that a large, randomized trial is necessary but not available, and W.H.O. used Mehra’s results to cancel that large, randomized trial.
        • Ed. must now say something that is not pleasant, but is absolutely necessary: How many more people must be left to die to make sure that a politician, despised by his political foes, is not proven right?  And if you don’t like ed.’s speech, feel free to change his mind in the comments.
    • “Coronavirus was already spreading in U.S. in January.”
      • “Genetic analysis of early cases suggests a single line of coronavirus imported from China began circulating in the United States between Jan. 18 and Feb. 9, followed by several importations from Europe, according to research from the CDC’s COVID-19 Response Team.”
      • “‘The findings highlight the fact that, in many cases, coronavirus can be spread by people who show few or no symptoms,’ said Dr. Robert Glatter, an emergency medicine physician with Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City.”

    Jun. 1:
    • “As daily coronavirus case numbers drop in Italy, some doctors have suggested that the virus is weakening and has all but disappeared in the country.”
      • “Alberto Zangrillo, who heads Milan’s San Raffaele Hospital, told Italian TV on Sunday that ‘in reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,’ Reuters reported.”
      • “‘The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,’ Zangrillo said.”
      • But: “According to Maria van Kerkhove, the technical lead at WHO, the coronavirus continues to infect people at the same rate as when the pandemic started, and the same proportion of people — about 20% — develop severe cases.  ‘In terms of the transmissibility, that has not changed. In terms of the severity, that has not changed,’ she said during a press briefing on Monday.”
        • Ed opines: you can’t both be right.
    • “Sweden’s coronavirus experiment has well and truly failed.”
      • “More than 4,000 people have died in a country of ten million. For seven of the last 14 days, Sweden has had the highest number of deaths per capita in the world. ‘Sweden hasn’t changed very much at all,’ says Paul Franks, an epidemiologist at Lund University. ‘But because things have changed in other countries, you’ve noticed the change in the relative death rates.’ The comparison is particularly stark when compared to Sweden’s neighbours, which have similar cultural practices and healthcare systems – it has almost four times as many deaths as Norway, Finland and Denmark combined.”
      • Ed opines: the problem with analysis like this is that it conflates goals.  The Swedes are playing the long game, but the author is calling “failure” based on short-game goals.  It’s not even the end of the first quarter of the long game.  You cannot call this a failure until the epidemic is over and we can tally everything up.
    • “Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid.”
      • “Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’”
    Norway’s daily data and estimated R0 (right-hand axis)
      • Ed opines: Now we’re forced to reconcile (1) Norway’s excellent results so far, (2) their statement that a lock-down was unnecessary, and (3) Sweden’s less- good results so far.  Could it be that no one really knows as much as they think they know?

    Jun. 2:
    • Yesterday’s news of the Lancet paper gets worse.  “The scientists and physicians also criticized the study’s authors for failing to release the raw patient data used for the study and information about which hospitals and countries provided the data.  David Boulware, an infectious-disease physician who signed the letter, said it is standard for researchers to make available the raw data used for studies. ‘That’s the best practice, to have a de-identified data set available, so other people could replicate their results,’ Boulware said. ‘There’s this whole issue of transparency.’”
      • And: “Further, the scientists and physicians in the letter asked The Lancet and Surgisphere, the company that compiled the information database for the study, to make available the peer-review process that led to the study ‘being accepted for publication.’” [Emphasis by ed.]
      • Ed opines: When 180 scientists call bullshit on a study, demanding the data and questioning the peer review process, that’s not science being done well.  It’s probably not science at all.
    • Related: media overlooks outcry, gleefully reports results while naming Trump.
      • “This study set off an orgy of celebration by the […] media. Under the headline ‘Malaria Drug Taken by Trump Is Tied to Increased Risk of Heart Problems and Death in New Study,’ the New York Times advised its readers that, according to the researchers, the ‘drugs did not help coronavirus patients, and should not be used outside clinical trials.’ The front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer featured an article by the Washington Post headlined ‘Antimalarial drug touted by Trump linked to increased risk of death in coronavirus patients, study says.’” 
    • Also yesterday’s news regarding the argument about the changing nature of the virus (Italy vs. W.H.O.) needs a second look.  Maria van Kerkhove stated that the rate of critical cases remains at 20% of all cases.  
      • Below are the current data from Worldometer, which includes a count of serious cases.  Worldometer says this: “Serious and Critical … is very imperfect. … [I]t represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
      • Doing the arithmetic, we see that 1.7% or total active cases are labeled ‘serious or critical’.
      • But it serious cases are under-reported, lets look at the U.S., were reporting should be more consistent and prevalent.  
        • Active cases = 1,145,374. 
          Serious or Critical cases = 16,939. 
          Ratio = 1.48%
        • Why would Maria van Kerkhove, the technical lead at WHO, state something that is so plainly not true?  
    • Straight-up quoting Instapundit: “MOST 21ST CENTURY HEADLINE EVER: Operation Warp Speed selects billionaire scientist’s COVID-19 vaccine for monkey tests.”
      • The Department of Health and Human Services has so far announced financial backing for five other vaccine candidates, but has not announced backing for this one yet.
    • Leaks show China delayed telling the world what it knew: “China in fact sat on releasing the genetic map, or genome, of the virus for more than a week after three different government labs had fully decoded the information. Tight controls on information and competition within the Chinese public health system were to blame, according to dozens of interviews and internal documents.”
      • “Chinese government labs only released the genome after another lab published it ahead of authorities on a virologist website on Jan. 11. Even then, China stalled for at least two weeks more on providing WHO with detailed data on patients and cases, according to recordings of internal meetings held by the U.N. health agency through January — all at a time when the outbreak arguably might have been dramatically slowed.”
      • Ed adds: not to mention Taiwan tried to warn W.H.O. (on Dec. 31) that human-to-human was happening, while China could not manage to divulge that same fact.
    • “Colorado has published the results of ongoing antibody tests with a massive sample size of 56,000. The study found, as of Thursday, that 7.75% of the entire state has been infected. That means that an estimated 489,500 Coloradoans have already had the virus. If you divide Colorado’s 1,135 deaths by the number of infections, you get a 0.23% IFR – almost exactly what the CDC pegged as the IFR nationwide.”
      • See related post above (May 27), where C.D.C. published an estimate of 0.26% IFR.
      • It’s still a scary, unpredictable bug that kills people the flu couldn’t.  Ed is not relaxing quite yet.
    • “New York’s largest hospital system is conducting a sweeping analysis of its use of ventilators while treating coronavirus patients during the peak of the pandemic.  The study comes as experts have raised concerns that an over-reliance on the machines may have actually cost lives.  For so many sick COVID-19 patients, getting attached to a mechanical ventilator was a death sentence. More than two-thirds of the patients in Northwell Health facilities hooked to ventilators died in March and early April and the fatality rate was similar at other hospitals.”
    • Thank goodness, reason may prevail.  New hydroxychloroquine study: Early outpatient treatment is the most effective for treatment of COVID-19 patients.  And the best early outpatient treatment we have is hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin. Quoting the article as it quotes the paper by Dr. Harvey A Risch of Yale University:
      • ‘The other suggestion is the combined regimen of HCQ+AZ (or its variant HCQ+doxycycline). The FDA has recently issued guidance (15) to physicians and the general public advising that the combination HCQ+AZ should not generally be used except by critically ill hospital inpatients or in the context of registered clinical trials. The NIH panel for Covid-19 treatment guidelines say essentially the same (16), and a similar statement has been released by the major cardiology societies (17). Numerous reviews of HCQ efficacy and adverse events have been and continue to be published. To my knowledge, all of these reviews have omitted the two critical aspects of reasoning about these drugs: use of HCQ combined with AZ or with doxycycline, and use in the outpatient setting. For example, the Veterans’ Administration Medical Centers study (18) examined treated hospitalized patients and was fatally flawed (19).  The same point about outpatient use of the combined medications has been raised by a panel of distinguished French physicians (20) in petitioning their national government to allow outpatient use of HCQ+AZ. It appears that the FDA, NIH and cardiology society positions have been based upon theoretical calculations about potential adverse events and from measured physiologic changes rather than from current real-world mortality experience with these medications and that their positions should be revised.’
      • ‘I conclude that HCQ+AZ and HCQ+doxycycline, preferably with zinc (47) can be this outpatient treatment, at least until we find or add something better, whether that could be remdesivir or something else. It is our obligation not to stand by, just “carefully watching,” as the old and infirm and inner city of us are killed by this disease and our economy is destroyed by it and we have nothing to offer except high-mortality hospital treatment. We have a solution, imperfect, to attempt to deal with the disease. We have to let physicians employing good clinical judgment use it and informed patients choose it. There is a small chance that it may not work. But the urgency demands that we at least start to take that risk and evaluate what happens, and if our situation does not improve we can stop it, but we will know that we did everything that we could instead of sitting by and letting hundreds of thousands die because we did not have the courage to act according to our rational calculations.’
        • Ed. opines: when the anecdotal science shows early use of HCQ+AZ+zinc is (startlingly) effective, and the ruling elites generate studies looking only at its use on the very, very sick, and then say it should only be used on the very, very sick, it makes ed. wonder what what the hell the deal is.

    Jun. 3:
    • The political blame-gaming of Sweden’s experiment continues.
      • The statists and authoritarians:
      • The disgraced, swinging scientist with the poorly documented alarmist model (Neil Ferguson):
        • “It is interesting that adopting a policy which is short of a full lockdown – they have closed secondary schools and universities and there is a significant amount of social distancing, but it’s not a full lockdown – they have got quite a long way to the same effect.”
      • Real journalism digging into the many factors:
        • “Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, told reporters that the country’s higher death toll likely stems from a variety of factors that people should consider, most especially, the contagion’s spread in nursing homes, which have been under quarantine. ‘Partly that we are on different places on the exposition curve, partly that we in Sweden, unfortunately, have had a large spread of contagion in elderly homes, something you have not seen in the other Nordic countries,’ said Tegnell. ‘And this we, of course, continue to analyse, why Swedish elderly homes have been exposed so much compared to other countries. But if we compare Sweden with Belgium, the US and a number of other countries our death rates are rather low.’”
      • Now, as an experiment, imagine what the 91-Divoc curve of 7-day-averaged deaths per million people looks like for Sweden, the U.K., the U.S., and Italy.  What must Sweden’s curve look like to warrant ‘highest number of deaths in Europe per capita’?
        • The answer is here 
          • (Warning: the graph at the link will continue to change with fresh data if you come back to this link days or weeks later.  Take a screen-shot and come back and compare later.)
    • The garbage science that stopped research into HCQ+AZ+zinc: “A mysterious company’s coronavirus papers in top medical journals may be unraveling.”
      • “[T]he Lancet results have begun to unravel—and Surgisphere, which provided patient data for two other high-profile COVID-19 papers, has come under withering online scrutiny from researchers and amateur sleuths. They have pointed out many red flags in the Lancet paper, including the astonishing number of patients involved and details about their demographics and prescribed dosing that seem implausible. ‘It began to stretch and stretch and stretch credulity,’ says Nicholas White, a malaria researcher at Mahidol University in Bangkok.”
      • “Today, The Lancet issued an Expression of Concern (EOC) saying ‘important scientific questions have been raised about data’ in the paper and noting that ‘an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly.’”
      • And finally, a flashing red motivational clue for the reason for the bad science is revealed (and its mission declared a success):
        • “[T]he questions swirling around the Lancet paper have left leaders of the halted chloroquine trials weighing whether to restart. ‘The problem is, we are left with all the damage that has been done,’ says White, a co-investigator on a trial of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 prevention that was halted at the request of U.K. regulators last week. Headlines proclaiming deadly effects will make it hard to recruit patients to key studies, he says. ‘The whole world thinks now that these drugs are poisonous.’”
        • For Politics? Or for profit?  Ed. wants to vomit.
    • Prophylactic HCQ for health care workers: “Consumption of four or more maintenance doses of HCQ was associated with a significant decline in the odds of getting infected (AOR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.22-0.88); a dose-response relationship existed between frequency of exposure to HCQ and such reductions (χ2 for trend=48.88; P<0.001).”
    • News you can use: “N95 masks offer significantly better protection against coronaviruses than surgical masks, analysis finds.” 
      • “A recent analysis of more than 150 studies found that respirator masks, such as N95 masks, are much more effective at protecting users against contracting coronaviruses than surgical or cloth masks.”
    • “Who’s immune to the new coronavirus—and for how long? Here’s what the research says.”
      • Ed. will summarize the lengthy article for his readers thusly: We don’t know diddly, and if you wait five minutes, we’ll know even less.
    • “Quest Diagnostics on Thursday announced that it has received an emergency use authorization from FDA for the company’s self-collection test kit for the new coronavirus. Individuals can use the kits to collect their own biological samples via nasal swabs and ship the samples to a Quest Diagnostics lab, which will test them for the new coronavirus.”

    Jun 4:
    • From the Department of You Can’t Make This Stuff Up: The whole study was FAKED? “A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees appear to include a science fiction writer and an adult-content model, has provided data for multiple studies on Covid-19 co-authored by its chief executive, but has so far failed to adequately explain its data or methodology.” Highlights:
      • “The company’s LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees. This was changed to three employees as of Wednesday.”
      • “The Guardian has since contacted five hospitals in Melbourne and two in Sydney, whose cooperation would have been essential for the Australian patient numbers in the database to be reached. All denied any role in such a database, and said they had never heard of Surgisphere.”
      • “One of the questions that has most baffled the scientific community is how Surgisphere, established by Desai in 2008 as a medical education company that published textbooks, became the owner of a powerful international database. That database, despite only being announced by Surgisphere recently, boasts access to data from 96,000 patients in 1,200 hospitals around the world. When contacted by the Guardian, Desai said his company employed just 11 people. … Dr James Todaro, who runs MedicineUncensored, a website that publishes the results of hydroxychloroquine studies, said: ‘Surgisphere came out of nowhere to conduct perhaps the most influential global study in this pandemic in the matter of a few weeks. ‘It doesn’t make sense,’ he said. ‘It would require many more researchers than it claims to have for this expedient and [size] of multinational study to be possible.’”
      • Ed exhorts readers to click on over and read the whole giant dumpster fire.
    • “COVID-19 pandemic causes 42% drop in ER visits nationwide.” Could this be because most ER visits are to beg for drugs or serve similar non-emergent desires?
    • Garbage science retracted! “‘Today, three of the authors of the paper, “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis”, have retracted their study,’ The Lancet said in a retraction statement Thursday. ‘They were unable to complete an independent audit of the data underpinning their analysis. As a result, they have concluded that they ‘can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.’”
    • New cases keep going up, deaths keep going down. What does that imply? (Source: Worldometer) Keep in mind that, as testing goes up, new cases go up.

    Jun 5:
    • The second paper by the authors using mystery data firm Surgisphere (New England Journal of Medicine) was also retracted.
      • “Surgisphere had said it collected the de-identified patient information from hospitals that was used in the studies. The Wall Street Journal contacted more than a dozen large U.S. hospitals, including some that treated high numbers of Covid-19 patients. None said they had an arrangement to share patient data with Surgisphere, and several said they had never heard of it.”
    • “[The month of] May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus.”
    • European cycling: “We’re experiencing huge improvements here in Europe. Group rides are now permitted. Restaurants, bars and hotels are opening up and life is definitely returning to ‘normal’. Around June 15 the EU is expected to make some important decisions regarding the opening up of European borders to international travel. Also, around June 15 A.S.O. should be sharing with us some important information regarding the Tour de France.”
    • A man was brutally murdered by police in Minneapolis. This horrible event leads to a difficult and important observation which ed. will link to only once and then drop.

    Jun. 9:
    • Yesterday: “The World Health Organization made noise Monday when the head of its emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, said during a briefing that transmission of the novel coronavirus by asymptomatic carriers is ‘very rare.’”
      • “Citing data WHO has collected, Van Kerkhove said spread from asymptomatic and presymptomatic people does occur, but recommended focusing on tracing and isolating symptomatic people to better attack the outbreak.”
      • “While the comments drew questions from experts on Twitter, it may simply be an issue of semantics, with Dr. Isaac Bogoch and Dr. Allan Detsky of the University of Toronto previously pointing out the misuse of the term ‘asymptomatic’ when referring to ‘presymptomatic’ patients. While asymptomatic people never show signs of the coronavirus, presymptomatic people exhibit no signs of contracting the disease for the first few days before experiencing the classic symptoms.”
      • “Dr. Ashish K. Jha, director at the Harvard Global Health Institute, tweeted out the distinction and noted that the agency ‘should be clearer in communication,’ also noting that some models ‘suggest 40-60% of spread is from people when they didn’t have symptoms.’”
    • Today: W.H.O. Walks Back Claim That Asymptomatic Transmission Is Rare.
      • “Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a ‘misunderstanding’ to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally. ‘I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,’ she said. Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. ‘That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,’ she said.”

    Jun. 10:
    • An epidemiologist and former epidemiologist, public-health academician, and the former CEO of Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital on what we understand now about CV19 transmission:
      • “We rely on epidemiologic models based on imperfect assumptions and laboratory-based experiments to make real-world recommendations about touching surfaces and establishing distance from others. This imprecision is especially problematic as the public looks for guidance on such activities as airplane travel, use of public restrooms, outdoor dining, outdoor sports, and sitting in offices, breathing recirculated air.”
      • Read the whole (short) thing.
    • Propaganda Disguised as Science: The suicide of expertise.
      • Most of us have noticed the bizarre about-face the pundits and even the epidemiology experts have made regarding allowing crowds (church, funerals, protests to unlock, and now protests against racism. Ed. will not opine, but instead remark that it is a fact, not a political opinion, that this has occurred. The link here provides a primer on the possible motivations and the near-certain ramifications.
      • Even the Guardian has cottoned on. “We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight. Progressives blithely accepted throwing millions out of work to fight coronavirus - but now urge street protests to fight racism.”
    • To his credit, the governor of ed.’s home state, Gamin Newsom of California, has put in place an objective, local set of criteria for opening, and transferred those decisions to the county level. The governor has also not been caught breaking his own rules. He and his team should be applauded. “‘Conditions across the state are unique and distinctive depending where you are,’ Newsom told reporters, echoing what rural officials have been chanting for weeks.”
    • Why is this so uncommon?
      • For the non-prudish, the exact document full of helpful recommendations and technical suggestions is here. And yes, ed. opines that in this world responsible civic leaders to have an obligation to create and publish this stuff.

    Jun. 11:
    • “Alarming rise in CV19 cases as states roll back lockdowns” bleats the Associated Press.  Where is the alarming rise?  Ed. wades through 91-DIVOC, state by state, looking for an alarming rise.  There are several states where the downward trend of new cases has flattened.  A few states have upward trends: Vermont, Utah, South Carolina, North Carolina (never flattened), maybe Nevada, Michigan (which clearly started counting differently), maybe Florida, Arkansas (never flattened), Arizona, and Alaska.  Overall, the United States shows zero uptick.
      • But when we look at 7-day-averaged deaths per million people, there is no rise, alarming or not, except for these regions: District of Columbia and Michigan (which clearly started counting differently).  That is it.  (We should check back in two weeks, since deaths lag infections by that amount of time.) 
      • And testing continues to increase, resulting in, predictably, more cases.
        • And does A.P. really think any increase in cases is primarily due to lockdown restrictions?  Have they been living under a rock?

    Jun. 12:
    • “Moderna Inc. said it had selected a dose for a final-stage clinical trial of its coronavirus vaccine that should begin in July, as the company moves ahead rapidly with its innovative approach to trying to prevent Covid-19.”
      • “The final study, which will include 30,000 people, will be conducted in collaboration with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the U.S. Its primary goal will be to show the vaccine prevents people from developing symptoms of Covid-19, Moderna said in a statement. A secondary goal will be to show the vaccine keeps people from getting severe cases requiring hospitalization.”

    Jun. 13:
    • Time to check in on C.D.C.’s reporting of excess deaths - the only statistic that is unambiguous and defensible.  We are clearly over the hump.  But let’s keep an eye out for another hump.
    • NPR, late to the party: “Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought.”
      • NPR says IFR should be reduced to about 0.5%, while ignoring other data:
        • C.D.C.: IFR = 0.26% [see entry May 27].
        • Colorado: N=56,000, IFR = 0.23% [see entry June 2].  
      • Finally NPR reports this nugget: “To get a more precise estimate of infections and the infection fatality rate nationwide, the National Institutes of Health has launched an antibody study that will test 10,000 people. Results will be released on a rolling basis. The study is expected to wrap up in early 2022.”
        • Ed: when the stupid is so convoluted that you have to use font colors to make the stupid really jump out.  Your tax dollars at work.
      • Also convoluted: recall that, as of June 1 [see entry], W.H.O. was still asserting that about 20% of all CV19 patients develop severe cases.

    Jun. 14:
    • “Parts of Beijing locked down due to fresh virus cluster.”
      • “Most of the six new domestic infections reported Saturday were linked to the meat and vegetable market, health officials said, which provides much of the capital’s food supply.  Official news agency Xinhua reported at least one of the cases was ‘severe’.  But another 45 asymptomatic cases -- which China counts separately -- were detected after mass testing of nearly 2,000 workers at the market on Friday, city health official Pang Xinghuo later told reporters.”
    • Someone wants us to think Arizona hospitals are being “overwhelmed”. 
    • To check, get your news from local reporting.
      • “During a news conference on Thursday, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey spent a lot of time talking about hospital capacity, with numbers from the Arizona Department of Health Services showing statewide hospital capacity was, on Wednesday, at 83%.  On Thursday, numbers show Arizona’s hospitals are at 78% capacity.”
      • “On the same day, officials with one Valley hospital sought to reassure Arizona residents, even after the recent surge in COVID-19 cases.” 
        • “‘We had a day earlier this week when we see the most patients we have had throughout the course of the pandemic, but we were able to do a number of discharges within the last few days, which brings our number down to baseline [emph.: ed.], ’ said Michael White, Chief Medical Officer with Valleywise Health.  Valleywise Health officials say as of Thursday, they are at 74%.  ‘Our admission rate has been stable over the last week, week and a half,’ said White.”
        • “The same thoughts are echoed by Arizona hospital leaders. In a statement jointly released by officials with Banner Health, Dignity Health, Honor Health and others, they say ‘we are well prepared to manage an increase in patient volume,’ and would ‘like to assure the public that we have the bed capacity and surge plans are in place.’”
        • Ed opines: Ask yourself why the national media wants you to panic about Arizona.
      • Arizona hospitalizations via 91-DIVOC:

    Jun. 15:
    • 142/640 new recruits at Fort Benning have the bug.
      • “640 new recruits arrived at Fort Benning and were medically screened and tested by medical professionals. At the time, four tested positive. All 640 recruits entered a 14-day monitoring period, with the four COVID-positive recruits isolated and properly treated.”
      • “After the 14-day monitoring period, training operations began with COVID-19 prevention measures in place including masks and social distancing. Despite these efforts, however, eight days after the end of the 14-day monitoring period, one recruit reported to the chain of command with COVID-19 symptoms.”
      • “All 640 recruits -- which form 30th AG Battalion and 2nd Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment -- were retested for COVID-19. After all 640 tests were returned over a two-day period, that same cohort of recruits had a 22 percent COVID-positive rate with 142 positive tests.”
        • Ed. opines: We should be rooting for ‘more transmissible, less virulent.’
    • Surgisphere has ceased to exist.  The unconventional data sourcing company, with the science editor whose actual professions appear to be science fiction writer and fantasy artist, and a marketing executive whose actual profession appears to be an adult model and event hostess, fooled the Lancet and thousands of elite pundits with what looks like completely made-up data.
      • The Guardian (U.K.) really pulled no punches while exposing the fraudster founder of Surgisphere, Dr. Sapan Desai:
        • “Dozens of scientific papers co-authored by the chief executive of the US tech company behind the Lancet hydroxychloroquine study scandal are now being audited, including one that a scientific integrity expert claims contains images that appear to have been digitally manipulated.  The audit follows a Guardian investigation that found the company, Surgisphere, used suspect data in major scientific studies that were published and then retracted by world-leading medical journals, including the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine.”
        • “It looks like Dr. Desai’s entire history is full of fraudulent claims. His Wikipedia page was flagged 10 years ago because people noticed many of the claims about him were sourced to his own website.”
        • “A study that formed the basis of Desai’s PhD may contain doctored images, according to expert claims, and the global medical publishing company Elsevier is conducting a review of his papers published in its journals.”
        • Ed. opines: just plain fraud?  Or fraud to empower a political hit?
    • “The University of Utah has ‘mutually agreed’ to terminate the faculty appointment of Amit Patel, who was among the authors of two retracted papers on Covid-19 and who appears to have played a key role in involving a little-known company that has ignited a firestorm of controversy.”
      • “Late Sunday, after publication of this story, Patel tweeted he had ‘verbally terminated’ his affiliation with the University of Utah a week ago, and that the relationship had ended formally this past Friday. ‘There is a much bigger story for which I still do not have the information,’ he wrote.”
    • “COVID-19 test can detect virus in saliva, blood, urine in 45 minutes.”

    Jun. 16:
    • “Patients with underlying conditions were 12 times as likely to die of covid-19 as otherwise healthy people, CDC finds.”
      • “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released data on more than 1.7 million coronavirus cases and 103,700 deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, reported to the agency from state and territorial health departments from Jan. 22 through May 30. The data are consistent with earlier reports showing the disproportionate impact the pandemic has had on people with underlying medical conditions. The report also highlighted the disease’s stark disparities between whites and minority groups. […] In Monday’s report, the CDC said the most common underlying conditions reported in people with covid-19 were heart disease (32 percent), diabetes (30 percent) and chronic lung disease (18 percent). Other preexisting conditions included liver disease, kidney disease, neurodevelopmental or intellectual disability, and immuno-compromised conditions. Although the disease is typically more severe among older people, people of any age with underlying medical conditions are at increased risk if they contract the virus, for which there is no vaccine and only limited drug treatment. About 45 percent of patients with underlying conditions were hospitalized, compared with 7.6 percent of those who did not have significant preexisting conditions. Deaths were 12 times higher among patients with these underlying conditions (19.5 percent) compared with those without reported conditions (1.6 percent).”
    • “Nursing Homes Account For Over 40% Of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths.”
    • “F.D.A. withdraws coronavirus Emergency Use Authorization for hydroxychloroquine — Doctors can still prescribe, and studies allowed to continue.”
    • “Cases of vaccine-preventable diseases are surging in countries that have stopped or drastically down-sized inoculation programs during the coronavirus pandemic.”
    • Sweden facts:
    • South and Central America
    Cases per day, seven-day rolling average.

    Deaths per day, seven-day rolling average.


    Jun. 17:
    • “A candidate treatment that utilizes cow antibodies to combat COVID-19 may be able to produce four times the level of neutralizing antibodies as seen in conventional human convalescent plasma serum, the compound’s developer has announced.”
    • New Zealand’s lauded bubble of island-country isolation perfection has been popped (and quite easily, too).  
      • “New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern has branded an ‘unacceptable failure’ a quarantine blunder that meant two arrivals from Britain left managed isolation in New Zealand without being tested for the coronavirus – which they were later diagnosed with. […] Ardern also said she would temporarily remove the compassionate exemption under which the pair were released from quarantine early.”
    • The ten currently worst performing states/regions in the Union, according to 91-DOVOC (new deaths per day, with seven-day average):
      • New Jersey
      • Rhode Island
      • Massachusetts
      • District of Columbia
      • Connecticut
      • Illinois
      • New Hampshire
      • New York
      • Georgia
      • Arizona/Nebraska
    • An inexact selection of states/regions in the Union where confirmed cases are trending poorly, again according to 91-DIVOC:
      • (List is: Arizona, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas)
    • An inexact selection of states/regions in the Union where deaths are trending poorly, again according to 91-DIVOC:
      • Nebraska
      • Georgia
      • District of Columbia
      • Connecticut
    • So while there is a second wave in cases, is it as serious as the first wave?
      • Texas (average for last seven days): 
        • 75.7 confirmed cases per million persons
        • 0.9 deaths per million persons
        • 990.7 tests per million persons
        • 7.64% positivity rate
        • 12 deaths per thousand confirmed cases (off a peak of 37)
          • The last is a downward trend that could be explained by increased testing of not-very-sick people, or by a decreasing virulence of the virus.
      • Arizona (average for last seven days):
        • 213.7 confirmed cases per million persons
        • 3.0 deaths per million persons
        • 1199.6 tests per million persons
        • 17.82% positivity rate
        • 14 deaths per thousand confirmed cases (off a peak of 74)
      • New York (average for last seven days):
        • 37.4 confirmed cases per million persons
        • 3.3 deaths per million persons (off a peak of 68)
        • 3274.5 tests per million persons
        • 1.14% positivity rate
        • 88 deaths per thousand confirmed cases (off a peak of 147)
    • What can be extracted from all these statistics? Arizona cases are high, but its deaths per case is low.  A confirmed case in New York is 6.3 times more likely to result in a death than a confirmed case in Arizona!  So Arizona can “afford” 6.3 times as many cases as New York (per million persons) before its deaths per million people equals that of New York.  Its case count is currently 5.7 times that of New York (per million persons)
      • As usual, one must remember that deaths lag confirmed cases by weeks, and so one must monitor these calculations while Arizona’s new cases develop.
      • Ed. opines: if ed. knew he would survive unharmed, he would want to catch the bug and get it over with.  Maybe Arizonans are just fed up with fear.

    Jun 23:
    • “Americans are at their unhappiest point in almost 50 years.  NORC conducted the poll of 2,279 U.S. adults between May 21 and May 29, and found that the percentage of respondents who said they were "very happy" dropped to 14% this year, down from 31% in 2018 and marking the lowest percentage the poll has ever recorded.”
      • The full report is here.  There are a lot of interesting graphs.
    • The hell endured by people who survive CV19 but require a long stint in ICU is described here.

    Jun 24:
    • Ugh: “Could ‘toilet plumes’ spread the new coronavirus?”
      • “Flushing the toilet with the lid open could create a so-called ‘toilet plume,’ or a cloud of aerosol droplets, that contains the new coronavirus and could linger long enough to either be inhaled by the next person to enter the bathroom or land on surfaces within the room, according to a study recently published in the journal Physics of Fluids.”
      • Ed opines: the so-called ‘toilet plume,’ or a cloud of aerosol droplets, is theorized to exist, whether it has the bug or not.  Consider what else is in the plume already.
    • Yikes:
        • Ed adds (and sorry, yes, there will be math): As economies re-open, the demographics of those being infected are changing fast.  In April fully 40% of those who perished were in old-folks’ homes.  If that somehow continues to be true, the mortality rate logically must plummet.  If the statistics about what kinds of patients get sick and die hold, then the mortality rate must plummet.  For the mortality rate to hold at 5%, we would need to see a much higher percentage of the dead come from younger patients with few or no comorbidities, because those are the people contracting it now.  
          • People will still get sick and die, but the ratio of deaths to cases must go down.
          • Comparing cases today with cases in April is apples and oranges.  It’s bad journalism.  It’s fear mongering.
    • Random spinner says check in on Sweden:
    • Likewise, it has been a week since ed. hand-selected four states with poor trends in deaths.  Here was that plot:
    Trends of new deaths (seven-day average) for four select states, on Jun. 17
      • And here are the same four states’ situations today (one week later):
    Trends of new deaths (seven-day average) for four select states, on Jun. 24
        • Ed. reminds himself that fear generates clicks and revenue faster than good news.

    Jun. 25:
    • What kinds of events are generating new clusters of CV19?  Ed. will summarize (emphasis by ed.):
      • Houses of worship
        • “[W]hen church congregants fail to properly social distance and [fail to] wear face masks or coverings, ‘[t]he reality is really simple … we’re asking for it’.”
      • Bars, pub venues and events
        • “‘A lot of transmission happened there,’ Pino said. ‘People are very close. People are not wearing masks. People are drinking, shouting, dancing, sweating, kissing and hugging, all the things that happen in bars’.”
      • Parties and social gatherings at people’s homes
        • “[…] events typically involve people being ‘together for an extended period of time,’ often not wearing face masks or coverings and not keeping six feet of physical distance between them. ‘That is most of the exposure,’ she said.”
      • Parting shot:
        • “Officials in Washington’s Yakima County, for instance, already are seeing a new surge in coronavirus cases that is overwhelming local hospitals, with providers having to send some patients outside of the county to receive care.  ‘We are frankly at the breaking point,’ said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D), this past weekend. ‘We don’t want to see people in parking lots unable to get hospital care. And if we do not act aggressively now [to curb new cases], that is what’s going to happen.’”
    • CDC Excess Death graph update:
      • Will it turn upward again?  By how much?
    • Overwhelming hospitals is clearly not okay.  But we need to remember some things:
      • “Even if there is a ‘second wave,’ it doesn’t mean anything in and of itself.  For one thing the Centers for Disease Control has long predicted that coronavirus cases would increase as the country reopened, for the simple reason that the lockdowns were never intended to stop the spread of the disease, only to slow it down. Remember? Flatten the curve?  The point of the lockdown was to give the country the time to ramp up testing, look for treatments, and increase medical supplies. By curbing the spread, health officials could more readily identify hotspots and conduct contact tracing, and the health care system could cope with any increase in demand. Which […] is exactly what’s happening now.”
      • Recall how Georgia’s governor was pilloried in the press.
      • With that reminder, back to the article:
        • “One epidemiological model predicted shortly after Kemp’s announcement that daily COVID-19 deaths would likely double in Georgia by August.  ‘The model predicts that the number of COVID-19 deaths per day in Georgia will jump from 32 people dying on May 1 to a projected 63 people dying per day by August 4,’ reported WRCB TV.”
        • Facts:
    Georgia New Deaths per Day, Seven-Day Average
    • “Governor Gregg Abbott has issued an executive order suspending elective surgeries in four major Texas counties to preserve hospital bed space as COVID-19 cases surge in the state.  The order suspends elective surgeries at hospitals in Bexar, Dallas, Harris, and Travis counties.”
    • Farr’s Law: “Farr showed that during the smallpox epidemic, a plot of the number of deaths per quarter followed a roughly bell-shaped or ‘normal curve’, and that recent epidemics of other diseases had followed a similar pattern.”
      • This is sometimes explained as “the disease kills the weak most easily, and therefore quickest.”
      • Ed. opines: we as a society are modifying the shape of this curve by changing the ease of infection over time.
      • More here.

    Jun 26:
    • You don’t say?  “A [C.D.C.] government estimate showed more than 20 million Americans may have contracted the virus, far exceeding diagnosed infections.”
      • Recall serology results noted in this blog: 
        • Santa Clara: 2.8%, April 3
        • Miami-Dade: 6%, April 25
        • L.A.: 4.1% April 21
        • Florida: 4% Today
        • NYC: 20% April 24
      • Recall ed.’s own estimate April 25: 16.5 million exposed at that time.  Sigh.

    Jun 30:
    • Ed. keeps rooting for truth: This article has a clear political slant (and it slants away from government lock-down), so don’t read it if you don’t want to.  Ed. will select things that are factual out of it.  (If the reader can read past the slant, it’s a good source of information to make your own conclusions.)
      • “A doctor from the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center said in a press conference Wednesday that people who are testing positive do not appear to be getting as sick as they did earlier in the pandemic. Dr. Donald Yealy also noted this trend was being seen in the wake of massive protests. He suggested the country is focusing too much on rising COVID-19 case counts.”
        • Dr. Yealy: “‘In summary, what our experience shows is that fewer people are being admitted, and when they are, they tend to be much less sick than at the beginning or at the peak phases of the pandemic.’”
        • Ed.: see similar observation by Italian doctor Alberto Zangrillo, added to this blog Jun. 1.
    • HCQ/Azith/Zinc update, from the same article: “Professor Harvey Risch, M.D., Ph.D., is a researcher at the Yale School of Public Health with a specialty in cancer etiology, prevention and early diagnosis, and epidemiologic methods. He recently surveyed research on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and zinc, concluding that they should be made widely available for use in the pandemic.”
      • “In explaining his findings, he noted that COVID-19 causes two different diseases. First is a nasty upper respiratory infection, and then it morphs into viral pneumonia. He only looked at studies where the treatment was given early in the onset and found it was effective. Specifically, he recommended it be given in the first five or six days of symptoms, especially to those over 60 or with a preexisting condition.”
      • “As many clinicians using the drug combination have been asserting, it is effective in preventing progression if given early and outpatient. Several have reported that even if a patient has mild shortness of breath, it reduces the severity of the illness.”
      • “From the abstract of Dr. Risch’s article in the American Journal of Epidemiology: ‘Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy.’ [Emphasis: ed.]
      • “This article was written on May 27, 2020. When asked why he thought the drug was so controversial, he said: ‘I think that there has been confusion about treating the cold versus treating the pneumonia. These medications don’t seem to work so well for treating the pneumonia. As early as possible is crucial, within the first five to six days of symptoms.’”
      • “Seventy-two percent of doctors in Spain are using the drug combination.”
        • Ed: how many lives were lost as a result of this political crap?
    • The C.D.C.: “The coronavirus is spreading too rapidly and too broadly for the U.S. to get it under control as some other countries have, Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday.”
      • Ed. opines: one can spend the rest of the life of this pandemic hiding in fear, or one can come out and fight.  Younger Americans have chosen.
    • A prevalence study (in the U.S.) round-up:  Summary: the true mortality rate (sometimes called infection fatality rate or infection mortality rate) is much, much lower than the case fatality rate.
      • Recall the entry in this blog on May 26, quoting the C.D.C. giving an IFR of 0.26%.
      • Ed. opines: want the truth?  Search out ICU volumes then and now.
        • Worldometer reported 3,512 critical/serious cases out of 154,825 active cases on Mar. 31.  That is a rate of 2.27%.  (Source: screen caps from archive.today)
        • Worldometer reported 18,671 critical/serious cases out of 855,492 active cases on Apr. 30.  That is a rate of 2.28%
        • Worldometer reported 17,163 critical/serious cases out of 1,177,518 active cases on May 31.  That is a rate of 1.46%.
        • Worldometer reports 15,864 critical/serious cases out of 1,449,124 active cases today.  That is a rate of 1.09%.
        • And remember: the denominator includes only confirmed cases, leaving out asymptomatic cases that are uncounted.  In mid-April, the fraction of active cases that were not diagnosed was estimated at about two-thirds.  In other words, multiply the April denominator by 3.  And there is no reason to think that relative rate of undiagnosed cases has shrunk.
    • China hopes to vaccinate its army.  “China has approved military use of an experimental coronavirus vaccine developed by the People’s Liberation Army and a Chinese pharmaceutical company, in a first for the armed forces of any country.”
      • Ed. opines: one can read this as “use army conscripts as guinea pigs”.  Or one can read this as “the first country with a vaccinated army has a certain ‘advantageous opportunities’”.
    • The countries with the most critical-care beds in facilities per capita:
      • Ed. found this while looking for statistics on ICU or critical care occupancy rates over time.  Ed failed to find the latter.
    • “The Food and Drug Administration released guidance Tuesday outlining conditions for approving a Covid-19 vaccine, including that any vaccine be at least 50% more effective than a placebo in preventing the disease. That 50% benchmark is used routinely for flu vaccines. The FDA said it wouldn’t approve—or give emergency-use authorization—to any coronavirus vaccine unless the maker had clearly demonstrated proof of its safety and effectiveness in a clinical study.”
    • “U.S. and local leaders on Monday blamed irresponsible behavior for the surge in new COVID-19 cases across the United States.”
      • “‘It’s not coincidental that two weeks after demonstrations happen here in Miami-Dade County, a lot by young people, that we’ve had this spike’.”
    • Ah-hah!  A learned article linking antibodies from some common colds to ability to successfully battel CV19.
      • From the article’s summary: “Understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is important for vaccine development, interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis, and calibration of pandemic control measures. Using HLA class I and II predicted peptide ‘megapools,’ circulating SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were identified in ∼70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively. CD4+ T cell responses to spike, the main target of most vaccine efforts, were robust and correlated with the magnitude of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA titers. The M, spike, and N proteins each accounted for 11%–27% of the total CD4+ response, with additional responses commonly targeting nsp3, nsp4, ORF3a, and ORF8, among others. For CD8+ T cells, spike and M were recognized, with at least eight SARS-CoV-2 ORFs targeted. Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.” [Emphasis: ed.]
      • Related, from a news article: “Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?” 
        • “Hopes that the COVID-19 pandemic may end sooner than initially feared have been fuelled by speculation about “immunological dark matter”, a type of pre-existing immunity that can’t be detected with SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests.”
          • Ed opines: It’s not dark matter if you know how to look for it.

    Jul. 1:
    • Very interesting analysis from a fellow-traveler (fellow CV19-nerd/data nerd), who solved for the statistical lag between case confirmation and death (about 1 week): 
      • “I made some data adjustments to the confirmed cases and death data time series to calculate 7-day moving averages of each, and lagged confirm cases by 1 week so that they overlap with their corresponding death counts in Tableau (attached). Whenever someone points out that death counts are still falling, it is usually rebutted by something along the lines of ‘Ya, but deaths lag cases, so we can’t look at those because that won’t come until later’. This lag adjustment and plot renders that argument [invalid], allowing us to compare apples to apples. As you can see, ‘confirmed cases’ are increasing, but it appears to have almost no effect at all on deaths, our core fight.”
      • The above plot shows the daily plot of confirmed cases (7-day lagging average) deliberately delayed by 1 week (orange) and the daily plot of CV19 deaths (7-day lagging average) (blue).  The introduction of the 1-week offset removes the confusion associated with the delay between case confirmation and death, making the trends directly comparable (apples to apples).  While there is undoubtable suffering associated with catching this nasty bug, the data show unequivocably that deaths are continuing to trend down even as new cases surge upward.
        • My fellow traveler adds important notes:
          • “I removed New Jersey from the data because a few days ago they decided to add in ~1900 ‘probable’ covid deaths to their case count, so it messes up the data/plot. 
          • It’s difficult to make sense of everything, as there are multiple factors in play here, but one of the contributing factors is almost certainly the fact that for over a month now, the CDC and several key states (TX, PA, GA, and others) have been combining their positive COVID-19 test results with antibody testing results as newly ‘confirmed cases’, throwing one more huge wrench into the spokes for governors and policy makers to sort through when trying make decisions to benefit the populations for which they are responsible.” [Ed: see entry in this blog May 21.]
      • The above plot shows 7-day moving averages for overall testing capacity and positive test rate percentages.
    • Ed. missed this in early June: Mexicali CV19 cases pour into El Centro; Tijuana CV19 cases pour into Chula Vista.
      • “The [El Centro] hospital, which has a 20-bed intensive-care unit, has been overwhelmed with ailing residents of the Imperial Valley, as well as Americans and U.S. green card holders fleeing overcrowded clinics and hospitals in Mexicali, a city of 1.1 million on the other side of the border.”
      • “Last week, a patient was being transferred from the hospital in El Centro every two to three hours, compared to 17 in an entire month before the Covid-19 pandemic.”
      • And this gentle aside: “‘Our E.R. is used to receiving patients from Mexico for things like complications from bariatric surgery and plastic surgery, and alternative cancer care, but this pandemic has brought a whole different dynamic’, said Juan Tovar, physician operations executive at Scripps Mercy Hospital in Chula Vista, across the border from Tijuana.”
    • “The nation’s leading infectious disease expert [Dr. Anthony Fauci] warned that new cases could reach 100,000 per day if the trend isn’t averted.”
      • Ed. loses his detachment and opines: Who cares?  Are you still talking?  Case counts don’t matter.  Deaths and severe hospitalizations matter.  Shut up, you hack.
    • Predictably, and sadly, the debate regarding using masks has now been consumed by politics.  Requiring masks or not is now a political position more than a position on public health. The above link is written by an epidemiologist specializing in bat-borne viruses, who writes:
      • “The evidence is hardly strong enough to elevate mask-wearing into the epitome of moral behavior. Doing so reflects a greater preoccupation with the psychological effect of masks—perhaps as a restoration of control in the face of an unseen and often perplexing enemy with no cure and no prophylaxis—than with their scientific reality. Americans should demand evidence-based decision-making and policies driven by soundly attested facts, not assumptions or psychological palliatives.”
      • And remember:
    • Is this ‘news’?  “Increasing numbers of Houston residents have reportedly been diagnosed with COVID-19 after attending protests against the death of George Floyd.”
      • Related: more than one thousand public health officials opted to sign a letter stating that “[W]e do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States.”  The letter argued that protesting was more important than health concerns driven by the DV19 pandemic.  The full letter is here.  An analysis is here.  Decide for yourself. 
    • “Minnesota’s Covid-19 model forecast 3,400 in ICU on June 29th: There were 140.”
      • Minnesota’s Governor’s power to curtail freedoms and rights was acquired as a direct result of this model. 
    • “Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows.”
      • “Dr Joan Ramon Villalbi of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration told Reuters it was still early to draw definitive conclusions.  ‘When it’s just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem,’ he said.”
      • Ed. opines: Lots to be skeptical about…  But still, if true, it will upset things completely.
    • A fascinating look at some of the origins of the world’s lock-down methodology is here.  Some highlights:
      • In response to the avian flu scare of 2006 that was forecast to be a pandemic but managed to kill only about 300 people by April 2007, “George W. Bush […] asked for some experts to submit some plans to him about what to do when the real thing comes along.”
      • “Drs. Hatchett and Mecher were proposing instead that Americans in some places might have to turn back to an approach, self-isolation, first widely employed in the Middle Ages.  How that idea — born out of a request by President George W. Bush to ensure the nation was better prepared for the next contagious disease outbreak [in response to the ] — became the heart of the national playbook for responding to a pandemic is one of the untold stories of the coronavirus crisis.”
      • The foundational paper was written by Robert J. Glass, “a complex-systems analyst with Sandia National Laboratories. He had no medical training, much less an expertise in immunology or epidemiology.”  His daughter, Laura, then aged 14, wrote a computer program that drove the justified the entire recommendation.
      • The lock-down recommendation was viewed as draconian by experts in the field.  A fight ensued.  The New York Times reports: 
        • “The [Bush] administration ultimately sided with the proponents of social distancing and shutdowns — though their victory was little noticed outside of public health circles. Their policy would become the basis for government planning and would be used extensively in simulations used to prepare for pandemics, and in a limited way in 2009 during an outbreak of the influenza called H1N1. Then the coronavirus came, and the plan was put to work across the country for the first time.”
      • But readers may recall that the concept of keeping people apart was well understood, even during the Spanish influenza crisis of 1918-19.
        • “Following state recommendations, [Milwaukee Health Commissioner George C.] Ruhland on Oct. 10 agreed to close churches and other public gatherings. Public funerals were banned. On Oct. 12, Ruhland closed all schools.”
        • “In mid-October, the health commissioner asked factories to stagger work hours to avoid overcrowding the streetcars.”  [Ed asks readers to recall that New York City removed subway train cars in March and April when ridership declined.  See entry Apr. 20.]
      • H/T ed.’s friend Dan for bringing this to our attention.

    Jul. 2:
    • Sanity? Or some dumb conservative site’s wishful thinking?  
      • “Evidence continues to mount that the new infections throughout much of the country are extremely mild, with the exception of some serious cases coming over the border from Mexico.”
      • Related: someone has done the work to reproduce my fellow-traveler’s analysis (posted yesterday) (with the scale adjustment but without the several-day time adjustment): 
        • Some wag in the comments: “Now, if we could just figure out what happened about 14 days previous to June 9 where a number of younger people were involved ? Sometime around May 25, we may never figure this out…”  But really, we’re not allowed to figure it out or talk about it.
      • We may also never figure out why the case mortality rates are changing.  Let’s see: back in early April Cuomo’s government was forcing sick CV19 patients into retirement homes with great gusto [see entry Apr. 21], and ignoring desperate pleas [see entry Apr. 25] for help.
    • Pursuing the truth means admitting you’re wrong when you are wrong.  Apr. 24, this blog wrote: “‘We’ve also got a $12 treatment with the hydroxychloroquine cocktail that has smashed Brazil’s fatality rate by 95%.’”
      • Here is what happened to Brazil (and all of Central and south America) after that:
     
    Cases, seven-day average


      • So, ed. will cop to mistakenly giving HCQ credit for stopping a disease that had not yet arrived.  But Brazil’s death rate has never approached that of the United States during April, even though its case rate is double.  Its case volume continues to climb while death counts hold flat.
        • Of course, maybe Brazil is not stuffing sick people into nursing homes.  Everything is so complicated.
        • Fortunately, the complete garbage New York Times is on the job to tell us what we should think:     
      • One last bit of analysis: how is Brazil doing compared to its neighbors?
    New cases per day, seven-day average

     
    New deaths per day, seven-day average
      • So in summary: Brazil is at the worse end of cases per day (221 per day per million persons), and is mid-pack in deaths per day (4.6 per day per million persons).  
        • But every country can have different ways of counting both numbers.
        • Ed. concludes he can’t conclude anything. 
    • Random spinner says check in on Sweden:
      • For further clarity, let’s look at cumulative deaths for the same three counties:
        • So, ed. opines: how should the world view Sweden’s response, in light of these data?  And how are you being told to view Sweden’s response by the media?  And why are those two things different?  And who stands to gain from the bogus narrative?  Answer: more powerful and bigger government is always the answer.
      • Our next question should be: if the goal was to get through the outbreak without shutting down Sweden’s economy, is Sweden on the back-end of the outbreak?  That is a question about infection rates (current active cases) and serology (a.k.a. prevalence studies, for antibodies).  There are little data and fewer news articles about this, the most obvious question.
        • Active cases: 
          • “The Swedish Public Health Authority released the results of the second national survey of ongoing infection with a total of 2,933 participants, which showed an estimated 0.3 percent of the population had an ongoing infection with COVID-19 when the samples were collected during the period May 25-28.”
          • “In the previous survey at the end of April, the corresponding figure was 2.3 percent.” 
        • Serology:
    • The next politicization of the pandemic in the U.S. will be centered on returning to school.
      • “The American Academy of Pediatrics says the academic, mental and physical benefits of in-person school outweigh the coronavirus risks. That is: Continued remote learning will harm children.”
      • “That’s why New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts aim to fully reopen schools in the fall. Much of Europe and East Asia have already reopened schools safely.  But some New York teachers fear for their own safety, and their unions will likely prevent a reopening.”
    • Mental health impacts are seldom considered.
      • “The impact of the lockdowns and anxiety of the pandemic seems to be showing up in the number of overdoses, both fatal and nonfatal, across the country. Since March, each month has measured a significant increase in suspected overdoses over a year ago, and each month during which the crisis continues, the relative increase in overdoses grows larger, according to The Washington Post.”  (WaPo paywalled article is here.)
      • Reminder: Excess deaths is the only true and absolute metric we have.
    • Ed is exhaused.

    Jul. 2 (special edition):
    • “China Never Reported Existence of Coronavirus to World Health Organization”  “WHO backtracks on original claim that China self-reported, admits this never happened.”
      • “Contrary to claims from both Chinese officials and the World Health Organization, China did not report the existence of the coronavirus in late 2019, according to a WHO timeline tracking the spread of the virus. Rather, international health officials discovered the virus through information posted to a U.S. website.”
      • “The quiet admission from the international health organization, which posted an "updated" timeline to its website this week, flies in the face of claims from some of its top officials, including WHO director general Tedros Adhanom, who maintained for months that China had informed his organization about the emerging sickness.”
      • “China and its allies at the WHO insisted in multiple interviews and press conferences that China came to the health organization with information about the virus. This is now known to be false. The WHO’s backtracking lends credibility to a recent congressional investigation that determined China concealed information about the virus and did not initially inform the WHO, as it was required to do.”

    Jul. 3:
    • Straight from Instapundit: 
      • “Hydroxychloroquine lowers COVID-19 death rate, Henry Ford Health study finds.”
        • “‘A Henry Ford Health System study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health system said Thursday.’”
        • “‘Officials with the Michigan health system said the study found the drug ‘significantly’ decreased the death rate of patients involved in the analysis.’”
        • “‘The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system’s six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died.’”
      • Instapundit: “I can’t tell whether they administered zinc as well, but these are impressive results either way. Note that they administered the drug early, rather than waiting until people were very sick.”
    • “Modelers Were ‘Astronomically Wrong’ in COVID-19 Predictions, Says Leading Epidemiologist—and the World Is Paying the Price”.  The whole thing is chock full of things to think about; here are a couple of samples
      • “In a wide-ranging interview with Greek Reporter published over the weekend, [Prof. John] Ioannidis [of Stanford University] said emerging data support his prediction that lockdowns would have wide-ranging social consequences and that the mathematical models on which the lockdowns were based were horribly flawed.” [Emph: ed.]
      • “Ioannidis said medical data suggest the fatality risk is far lower than earlier estimates had led policymakers to believe and ‘is almost 0%’ for individuals under 45 years old. The median fatality rate is roughly 0.25 percent, however, because the risk ‘escalates substantially’ for individuals over 85 and can be as high as 25 percent for debilitated people in nursing homes.” [Emph: ed.]
      • “‘The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age-structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed,’ Ioannidis said. ‘For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially…’”
      • “In March, in a widely read STAT article, Ioannidis said it was uncertain how long lockdowns could be maintained without serious consequences.  ‘One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health,’ Ioannidis wrote. ‘Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric.’”
      • “‘I feel extremely sad that my predictions were verified,’ Ioannidis said.”
      • [Ed urges: do read the STAT article.  It’s like the professor got into a time machine in March, went to June, and then came back to March to write the article.  One sample:]
        • “This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.”
    • Ed. poses this thought exercise: Suppose we become convinced that the fatality risk for this disease for individuals younger than 45 ‘is almost 0%’ as Prof. Ioannidis stated above.  What would sound policy be?
      • Would you, as a policy decider, clamp down on gatherings of young people?
        • What if infections started to shoot up again?
      • Would you require people to wear masks to slow the spread?
      • Or would you want to pick up the pace on the march to herd immunity?
      • To help the thought-experiment, assume that if you make the choice toward herd immunity, your choice will be blared in the media as science-denying and ethically akin to murder.
    • Related: “Georgia COVID-19 Deaths Hit 3-Month Low.”
      • “Since reopening on April 22, the 7-day rolling average of deaths due to COVID-19 has consistently declined, according to the state’s dashboard. The last average outside the 14-day window for reporting accuracy is 16.14 per day. This count is the lowest rolling average since March 29. Preliminary data shows continued declines despite reopening and protests that began a month ago.”
    • “Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate From Pfizer, BioNTech Produces Positive Results in Early Study”
    • A look at hospitalizations, which don’t march in lockstep with cases, and don’t march in lockstep with deaths.  Unfortunately, ed. does not have a link or reference - this came in a personal email.
      • Keeping hospitals out of the overflow zone is critical. From the same source:
    • Seven lessons to learn in the age of this pandemic:
      • Data collection collects errors in data, too.
      • Inaccuracy in data means inaccuracy in analysis, and that means conclusions are suspect.
      • Even assigning deaths to cause XYZ is problematic.
      • A pandemic is a temporal paradox.  Everything is always changing.  Data are quickly obsolete.
      • The transparency of data is a reflection of the level of democracy of each government and the trust of its citizens.
      • Despite the temptation, privacy, too, is a reflection of the level of democracy of a government and the trust of its citizens.
      • Comparing ‘success’ with others is a fool’s errand, because every single thing about a location and its comparator is different (starting with 1-3 in this list).

    Jul. 6:
    • The Wall Street Journal sent ed. its email bleat this morning: “Top officials in Southern and Western U.S. cities and states with growing coronavirus cases sounded the alarm this weekend, saying hospitals were near capacity and that stricter social-distancing enforcement was needed. Texas, Arizona and Florida have been some of the worst-hit states in recent days, with a rise in new infections and hospitalizations.” [emph.: ed.]

        • Two local reports make Google’s search, and both say capacity is sufficient.  Mainstream media NBC says we should panic.
      • Here is Florida’s live report on hospital capacity.  You can check by hospital or by county, and for total beds or by ICU beds.
    Florida total beds available, by county.


    Florida ICU beds available, by county
      • Ed. searches a new Florida database for a large hospital close to ICU capacity.
        • U.F. in Duval County: 95 ICU beds out of 100 are occupied.
        • Tampa General in Hillsborough County: 80 ICU beds out of 90 are occupied.
        • Jackson Memorial in Miami Dade: 209/234.
      • Here is Arizona’s website, and below is a snapshot of current ICU capacity.  Note that the graph goes back to March, and is never below 60%, which is normal.  Now it is hovering just below 90%.

    Arizona composite ICU occupancy (as a percent)
      • Texas Medical Center is embroiled in the mess that is trying to be transparent about hospital bed capacity. Apparently it is not merely bean counting.  Here is a good article (as always, go local to get the spin un-spun).
    • “COVID-19 is close to losing its epidemic status in the U.S., according to the CDC.”
      • “Coronavirus deaths in the country have nearly reached a level where the virus will cease to qualify as an epidemic under Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rules, the federal agency reported on Friday.”
      • “The CDC qualifies a disease outbreak as an "epidemic" if the number of deaths attributable to the disease exceeds a certain percentage of total deaths per week. That threshold for pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 fluctuates slightly depending on the time of year, ranging from around 7% at the height of flu season to around 5% during less virulent months.”
    • “Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in U.S. and Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain [the one found in Wuhan].”
      • “Researchers have been analyzing and tracking the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, since it first appeared in China in January. Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia.”
      • This story was found by ed. at Legal Insurrection, which has a comments section (and an anti-establishment slant).  Ed. shouldn’t quote comments, even when people seem informed and data-driven.  Reader beware!
        • “The surge in infections is real. As a physician who follows this for a living, it’s real.”

          “What our fear-porn media won’t mention is the surge is insignificant. Nearly all of the new positive test results are in ‘working age’ Americans. Here in FL they comprise 20% of the positive tests but less than 1% of the deaths. In protest-happy California, age 18-49 racks up 48% of the positive tests, 6% of the deaths.”

          “These days we are told to get tested before returning to work. We see ‘free, anonymous’ testing sites everywhere so why not? Healthcare employees are told to test twice a week, but insurance won’t pay for that. So you have a big spike in positive tests in a group of people who will likely never get sick. They certainly won’t fill up the local hospital, even if they did, won’t end up in the ICU on a ventilator.”

          “And they’ll go about their business, unaware their test results are being used by evil ‘journalists’ to keep the country in an absolute panic. Public health officials watch the hospital census (declining every week everywhere) and the death rate (a fraction of what it was), the media used to watch this when the numbers were more scary. So let’s go focus on some new absurd statistic to keep ’em at home! Every State website has these numbers, do your part to get them out into the sunlight.”
        • “I’m a physician in CA. The local hospitals report the cases to on-staff physicians. There has been a very small increase in cases, and an enormous increase in number of tests. Meaning – the % positive in tests performed is plummeting. And of course the important metric is NOT number of cases. It’s number of sick (i.e., ICU) cases, intubations, and deaths, which is NOT increasing (meaning, all the hospitals have a few patients, none of them have anywhere near overwhelming numbers, and none of them is at any risk of running out of space, ICU beds, or ventilators).”

          “Another important point is for the most part young people or healthy people don’t get ill from this. Flulike symptoms yes. Death, for the most part, no. The same people die from this as from the flu as from heart attacks – the elderly and the ill.”

          “Now that we can look back on data, this whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Are cases going up? Sure. A bit. Are people dying more? Not really. Now look to see the Chicken Little media NOT reporting on how the deaths are (no dramatic increase) but the cases. That is the hint I think that this is a political virus, not a medical virus. Keep the news bad until the election. The data do not support bad news.”

    Jul 8:
    • “The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has approved two Lysol disinfectant products as effective against the novel coronavirus, marking the first time a company is allowed to make such a claim on its labels.”
      • The products are Lysol Disinfectant Spray and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist.
      • “The agency plans to approve additional products in the coming weeks.”
    • “The U.S. has formally notified the World Health Organization it will withdraw from the United Nations agency…”
      • The Wall Street Journal quickly adds in the second half of its lede: “…a move critics say will hamper the international fight against the Covid-19 pandemic and sap the U.S. of global influence.”
      • The only critic mentioned by name in the article who said anything like the above is Joe Biden.  The only other critical person mentioned by name is Lamar Alexander, who was quoted as saying “Certainly there needs to be a good, hard look at mistakes the World Health Organization might have made in connection with coronavirus, but the time to do that is after the crisis has been dealt with, not in the middle of it.”
      • Conclusion: Even the Wall Street Journal news department is spinning hard to discredit the Trump administration.
    • Also the Wall Street Journal: “Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think.”
      • The article recounts other early infections, including the Parisian man in December, the virus found in wastewater samples in Italy in December, etc.
      • “The Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai recently performed Covid-19 antibody tests on blood samples taken from New York City patients in February and March. They found 1.4% to 3.2% of emergency-room patients and 0.9% to 1.6% of other patients between the weeks ending Feb. 23 and March 15 tested positive for antibodies. Since antibodies can take a few weeks to develop, that suggests some New Yorkers were already infected by early February or even late January.”
      • “Genetic sequencing of virus samples shows that the G614 strain, which swept through Europe and New York in March, seeded most U.S. infections. The D614 strain, which doesn’t have [a mutation making the virus’ spike attach to human cells better], showed up on the West Coast earlier in the winter. The G614 variant overtook the D614 strain in most places even though it arrived later—suggesting it may be more infectious.”
      • Here’s where it gets really interesting:
        • “Recent studies have also found that many people with mild or no symptoms who test positive for Covid-19 later don’t show antibodies when tested. Patients with mild symptoms produce a weaker antibody response than those who get more severely ill. Most antibody tests are primed to minimize false positives, but as a result are less sensitive.  These people, however, have been found to have long-lasting, potent T-cells that can ward off future infection. A small study last month from France found that six of eight close family contacts of sick patients didn’t develop antibodies but did develop Covid-19-specific T-cells. A new study from Sweden finds that moderately ill patients developed both Covid-19-specific antibodies and T-cells. But twice as many healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic and asymptomatic family members of sick patients generated Covid-19 specific T-cells than did antibodies.”
    • Related: “COVID-19 Herd Immunity Is Much Closer Than Antibody Tests Suggest, Say 2 New Studies.”
      • “The prevalence of immunity to the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 may be much higher than previous research suggests according to an intriguing new study by researchers associated with Karolinska Institute in Sweden. In addition, a new German study by researchers associated with the University Hospital Tübingen in Germany reports that people who have been previously infected with versions of the coronavirus that cause the common cold also have some immunity to the COVID-19 virus.”
        • “Caveats: Both studies are based on small sample sizes and neither have yet been vetted by peer review.”
        • (Both this and the WSJ article above reference the Swedish study.)
    • Related: “Three quarters of people who live with a coronavirus sufferer may develop ‘silent’ immunity without needing antibodies.”
      • “The number who have suffered Covid-19 may have been hugely underestimated because tests are looking for specific antibodies in blood rather than the body’s ‘memory’ T cells that fight infection, experts say.  Six out of eight of those living with someone who tested positive for Covid-19 showed negative results when tested for coronavirus antibodies in their blood, scientists found.”
    • Reason does a really good job analyzing CV19 developments, and this is no exception: “Is the COVID-19 Pandemic Self-Flattening, or Will It Grind Relentlessly on?”  It is too hard to quote.  Ed. will attempt to summarize, but urges readers to read the whole thing.
      • An M.I.T. team released a pre-print study estimating the total number of infected persons in many countries, and the resulting infection fatality rate (IFR).  They noted that these estimates “vary substantially, e.g., Ecuador (18%; 0.61%), Chile (15.5%; 0.57%), Mexico (8.8%; 0.69%), Iran (7.9%; 0.44%), USA (5.3%; 0.99%), UK (5.2%; 1.59%), Iceland (1.65%, 0.56%), New Zealand (0.1%, 0.64%), but all nations remain well below the level needed for herd immunity.”
        • [Recall that in June, the C.D.C. estimated that as many as ten times the number of confirmed infections may have occurred in the U.S.  Entry Jun. 26: “A [C.D.C.] government estimate showed more than 20 million Americans may have contracted the virus, far exceeding diagnosed infections.”]  
        • “Based on their model, the MIT researchers project that absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination by Spring 2021, the pandemic will grind on and COVID-19 cases will globally rise to around 249 million and total deaths will number about 1.75 million in the 84 countries they analyze.”
      • “In stark contrast to the MIT researchers’ grave projections, Stanford University biologist and Nobelist in chemistry Michael Levitt and his team argue in their pre-print study that the pandemic is essentially self-flattening and is already subsiding in much of the world. The Stanford team tracks data on cases and deaths from COVID-19 outbreaks at 3,546 locations around the world. They find that after an initial steep rise in each outbreak that the rates of diagnosed infections and deaths generally begin to decline at a steady, almost linear, pace.”
        • [Ed. reminds readers of the claim of Italian doctor Alberto Zangrillo, added to this blog Jun. 1.]
        • [Ed. reminds readers of his fellow-traveler data nerd’s plot from the first entry of Jul. 1.  It seems to show an initial steep rise and then a decline in a stead, almost linear pace.]

    New cases, seven-day average, for New York, Arizona, Texas, Florida


    New deaths, seven-day average, for New York, Arizona, Texas, Florida
    • Related: “A lower COVID-19 death rate is nothing to celebrate.”  Really?  Really?  Some examples of this vicious bit of fear-mongering.
      • “Now, at least, the U.S. is testing more widely.”
      • “And even though death is a lagging indicator, and the numbers are likely to catch up to some degree, there is reason to hope that the lag could now be longer and slower than it was in the spring. After all, much has been learned about how to treat COVID-19 patients.” [So that is the only explanation.]
      • “Rising death tolls in hot-spot states such as Arizona, Florida and Texas have been balanced so far by declining figures in initially hard-hit states that now have the virus better under control.” [The fact that rising death tolls in those states is very much lower than death tolls in different outlier states even six weeks ago is omitted.]
    • A good round-up of various CV19 news is here.  Included:
      • “A study by Wake Forest Baptist Health has found that between 12-14% of people tested in North Carolina have antibodies for the coronavirus — meaning they have been exposed to the virus — with most of them showing little or no symptoms. […] The findings suggest that COVID-19 is less deadly than originally thought and that the death rate for the disease could be in the range of 0.1%.”
      • “Advantages of the Parent Nucleoside GS-441524 over Remdesivir for Covid-19 Treatment,” in which the authors claim that the parent nucleoside [the compound from which other compounds are derived by the hydrolysis of nucleic acids] of Remdesivir is more efficacious, easier to manufacture, and is the primary metabolite from Remdesivir to reach the lungs anyway.
      • Israel is also having a renewed outbreak.
    • CDC’s excess deaths update: there really is no comparison.

    Excess deaths from Florida

    Excess deaths from Texas

    Excess deaths from Arizona

    Excess deaths from New York
    • “Dr. Scott Atlas, of the Hoover Institute, discussed why we don’t need to be scared of the increase spread of coronavirus on Good Morning San Diego with KUSI’s Paul Rudy.”
      • “‘When you look all over at the states who are seeing a lot of new cases, you have to look at who is getting infected because we should know by now, that the goal is not to eliminate all cases, that’s not rational, it’s not necessary, if we just protect the people who are going to have serious complications. We look at the cases, yes there’s a lot more cases, by the way they do not correlate in a time sense to any kind of reopening of states. If you look at the timing, that’s just a misstatement, a false narrative. The reality is they may correlate to the new protests and massive demonstrations, but it’s safe to say the majority of new cases are among younger, healthier people.’”
      • “‘Yes, hospitals are more crowded, but that’s mainly due to the re-installation of medical care for non COVID-19 patients.’”
      • “Dr. Atlas used Texas of an example saying, ‘90+% of ICU beds are occupied, but only 15% are COVID patients. 85% of the occupied beds are not COVID patients.’”

    Div tag
    Jul. 9:
    • The bug spreads more dangerously indoors, scientists warn.  
      • “More than 200 scientists from over 30 countries are urging the World Health Organization to take more seriously the possibility of the airborne spread of the novel coronavirus as case numbers rise around the world and surge in the United States.”
      • “In a forthcoming paper titled ‘It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of Covid-19,’ 239 signatories attempt to raise awareness about what they say is growing evidence that the virus can spread indoors through aerosols that linger in the air and can be infectious even in smaller quantities than previously thought.”
      • Related: “The scientists cited research showing how three families at three different tables in a restaurant in China all became infected with the ­virus. One person at table A came in with it, and when he talked, he emitted viral droplets that were carried across the room in a stream of air-conditioned air, infecting diners at two other tables.”
        • See entry in this blog, Apr. 19.  At that time, C.D.C. argued this was evidence against aerosol spread.
    • Related: “The World Health Organization acknowledges there is ‘evidence emerging’ of the airborne spread of the coronavirus — after a group of more than 200 scientists urged the UN agency to update its guidance on how the respiratory illness passes between people.”
      • ‘The possibility of airborne transmission in public settings — especially in very specific conditions, crowded, closed, poorly ventilated settings that have been described — cannot be ruled out,’ said Benedetta Allegranzi, the WHO’s technical lead for infection prevention and control.
      • “‘We wanted them to acknowledge the evidence,’ said University of Colorado chemist Jose Jimenez, who signed the paper.  ‘This is definitely not an attack on the WHO. It’s a scientific debate, but we felt we needed to go public because they were refusing to hear the evidence after many conversations with them,’ he told Reuters.”
      • “Jimenez said there has been strong opposition historically in the medical profession to the idea of aerosol transmission, citing a fear of panic as a main concern.”
        • “‘If people hear “airborne”, health-care workers will refuse to go to the hospital,’ [Jimenez] told Reuters, adding that people would buy all the highly protective N95 respirator masks, ‘and there will be none left for developing countries.’  He added that the agency’s panel examining the evidence on airborne transmission was not scientifically diverse, and lacked representation from experts in aerosol transmission.”
    • Related: If that were to be true, one might be tempted to write this sort of analysis: “How COVID-19 is transmitted completely upended — here’s what we need to reopen.”
      • “Unfortunately, few indoor spaces can be fitted like airplanes to turn over air in three minutes. But there are other, newer technologies that can be installed to combat airborne viruses.  ‘Healthy buildings should be the first line of defense’ against the coronavirus, says Joseph Gardner Allen from Harvard’s School of Public Health. And against indefinite lockdowns.  Reopening plans proposed by most states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention overlook the problem of airborne spread and don’t consider high-tech remedies.  What the United States needs is a Green Indoor Deal, an infrastructure spending plan to equip workplaces. It would be a bargain compared to prolonged unemployment benefits.”
    • Related: wouldn’t that make airplanes flying death-traps?  No.  Airplanes manage airflow and recirculation very thoughtfully.  This is a very readable, short article written by an airline pilot.
      • “Studies have shown that a crowded airplane is no more germ-laden than other enclosed spaces—and usually less. Those underfloor filters are described by manufacturers as being of hospital quality. I needn’t be reminded that hospitals are notorious viral incubators, but Boeing says that between 94 and 99.9 percent of airborne microbes are captured, and there’s a total changeover of air every two or three minutes — far more frequently than occurs in offices, movie theaters, or classrooms.”
      • Another interesting article: “Even with all this air coming into the aircraft from the outside, it only accounts for 50% of the air in the cabin. The other 50% comprises of recirculated air and it’s here that the first stage of air cleaning happens.  Situated in the space above the passenger cabin (or in the belly depending on the aircraft type) sits the recirculation loop. Here, fans draw air into the system for it to be cleaned. The recirculation loop contains a series of High-Efficiency Particulate Air filters (HEPA), 15 of them on the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.”
      • Note that ed. has not provided any evidence that in any way claims that airports (security lines, boarding areas, etc.) are as germ-free.
    • “Health experts won’t ask Americans to take off their masks anytime soon.  That’s the take of Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. He has been preparing for an outbreak like the novel coronavirus as part of his work for years.”  
      • “‘I think that mask wearing and some degree of social distancing, we will be living with — hopefully living with happily — for several years,’ he said. ‘It’s actually pretty straightforward. If we cover our faces, and both you and anyone you’re interacting with are wearing a mask, the risk of transmission goes way down.’”
      • Ed. opines: Hey Eric, stop acting so gleeful and shut up.

    Jul. 10:
    • Deaths in the U.S. are increasing again, after weeks of steady decline.

    Daily deaths from CV19.
    The big spike at Day 113 is New York
    making a late adjustment.
      • States driving the upswing are, roughly:
        • Arizona
        • California (Southern)
        • Florida (one day only so far)
        • Illinois
        • Texas

    Source: 91-DIVOC
    • “Scientists hail ‘stunning’ results that show areas of New York may have reached 68 per cent immunity.”
      • “Neighbourhoods of US city have seen highest positive rate on antibody tests recorded, though some experts warn not to extrapolate findings.”
      • [The rest is behind a paywall.  Sorry.]
    • “Each of these measures lowers the probability that an infectious dose of virus will find its way to your respiratory tract.”
      • “[T]he science of viral transmission is all about probabilities. Just as the chance of your being infected by another person is a function of time of exposure, the number of virus particles you encounter, whether there’s dilution (lowering of the concentration of virus particles) from good ventilation and filtration—and a few other factors—the same is true of transfer of viral particles from a pet.”

    The Texas Medical Association ranks the risk –-
    i.e., a number proportional to the probability of contracting COVID-19 –-
    from various behaviors and activities
    • “Fauci: We Don’t Need to Shut Down Again, But Hard-Hit States Should Pause Reopening”
      • “He specifically cited California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida as states that have been hit hard recently, and stated, ‘We’ve got to get them to do very fundamental things: closing bars, avoiding congregations of large numbers of people, getting the citizenry in those states to wear masks, maintain six-foot distance, washing hands.’”
    • “CDC director: Keeping schools closed poses greater health threat to children than reopening.”
      • “‘I’m of the point of view as a public health leader in this nation, that having the schools actually closed is a greater public health threat to the children than having the schools reopen,’ Redfield told The Hill’s Steve Clemons.”
      • “But education groups like the American Association of School Administrators and the American Federation of Teachers say much more funding is needed to safely reopen schools, and that districts are already facing severe budget shortfalls due to the economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus.”
      • “‘I don’t think we should go overboard in trying to develop a system that doesn’t recognize the reality that this virus really is relatively benign to those of us that are under the age of 20,’ Redfield said. He added that there is a need to ‘protect the vulnerable,’ such as children with underlying conditions, as well as teachers, but did not go into detail on how to do that.”

    Jul. 11:
    • The New York Times: “Coronavirus Live Updates: W.H.O., in Reversal, Affirms Virus May Be Airborne Indoors.”  Non-paywall view here.
      • “The W.H.O. formally acknowledged droplets carrying the coronavirus may be airborne indoors and people who spend long periods in crowded settings with inadequate ventilation may risk becoming infected, a reversal many scientists said was long overdue.”
    • But wait: Ars Technica writes, “WHO still skeptical SARS-CoV-2 lingers in air—despite what the NYT says.”
      • “If you happened to read The New York Times this week, you may be under the false impression that the World Health Organization significantly changed its stance on whether the pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, spreads by lingering in the air.”
      • “The paper also called it an ‘admission’ and, in a subsequent article, said the WHO had ‘conceded.’ The articles both noted that a group of more than 200 researchers had also published a commentary piece this week urging the WHO and other public health bodies to acknowledge and address the potential for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.”
      • “The problem: the WHO did not change its stance on airborne transmission. And, as such, it did not issue any new recommendations or guidance on how people can stay safe.  What the organization did do is release an update of its review of the data on transmission, which it said it had been working on for weeks—well before the published commentary.”
      • “When Ars reached out to the WHO to ask if the new scientific brief represented a ‘reversal’ on its stance, a spokesperson responded concisely: ‘WHO has not changed its guidance.’”
    • Related: New York Times article slamming Sweden’s CV19 approach is dissected by Swedish journalist, and revealed to be full of bias and half-truths.
    • “Pathologist found blood clots in ‘almost every organ’ during autopsies on Covid-19 patients.”
      • “The autopsies also showed something unusual about megakaryocytes, or large bone marrow cells. They usually don’t circulate outside the bones and lungs, Rapkiewicz said.  ‘We found them in the heart and the kidneys and the liver and other organs,’ she said. ‘Notably in the heart, megakaryocytes produce something called platelets that are intimately involved in blood clotting.’”
    • “As Covid-19 Cases Hit Records in U.S., Deaths Begin Trending Higher.”
      • This blog reported this yesterday.  However, ed. missed the likely cause: with more infected people running around, it’s so much harder to keep the vulnerable individuals safe.
        • “‘As these cases increase at a significant rate, it’s going to catch up with everyone,’ said Thomas Russo, professor and head of infectious disease at Jacobs School of Medicine & Biomedical Sciences at the University of Buffalo. ‘Even though initially it was mostly young individuals that were infected, it’s only a matter of time where they start to infect older individuals that have higher mortality rates.’”
      • California: “California, which has recorded more than 770 deaths since the beginning of July 1, has seen coronavirus hospitalizations increase 44% over the past two weeks, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday. More than 7.3% of Californians screened for the virus last week tested positive. That figure was even higher in Los Angeles County, where officials warned Thursday of increased community spread and ‘substantially higher’ coronavirus-related hospitalizations.”
        • Ed. notes: 7.3% positive test rate is not the same as 7.3% of the population being infected.  The tests were administered to people who were suspected of being infected.  The number is usually in the 5% to 7% range around the world.  But it is increasing in California.

    California Test Positivity Rate, Seven-Day Average
    • Some vaccine news:
      • “German Biotech Sees Its Coronavirus Vaccine Ready for Approval by December.”  “BioNTech CEO warns it could still take a decade to fight back virus that has now infected millions, despite global efforts and rapid progress.”
      • “First Seattle volunteer in human COVID-19 vaccine trials says she feels ‘fantastic’.”  “On March 16, Haller, a 43-year-old a tech startup operations manager, became the first person in the country to get injected with the experimental COVID-19 vaccine.  It’s developed by bio-tech company Moderna and National Institutes of Health.”
      • Related: “Moderna is on a steady march to market with its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, and the company is snapping up manufacturing capacity along the way. After inking one fill-finish deal with major CDMO Catalent last month, Moderna has now put its name to a second pact.”
        • “Moderna signed a deal with Spain’s Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi for fill-finish duties on ‘hundreds of millions’ of the Massachusetts-based vaccine maker’s mRNA COVID-19 shot candidate, the partners said Thursday.  Rovi will tackle the finishing work for Moderna’s vaccine at its Madrid facility after purchasing a new production line and equipment for compounding, filling, automatic visual inspection and labeling, according to a joint release.  Rovi expects to start the work in early 2021 and will hire additional staff to take on the increased manufacturing load.”
    • “More evidence emerges that a TB vaccine might help fight coronavirus.”
      • “[R]esearch emerged this week in potential support of using the tuberculosis vaccine Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) as a tool in the fight against coronavirus.  Researchers found that countries where many people have been given the vaccine have had less mortality from Covid-19.  While that doesn’t mean that BCG somehow reduces the risk of severe illness form a coronavirus infection, it fits in with other research that suggests BCG can boost people’s immunity in general, and perhaps help against the coronavirus.”
        • “Every 10% increase in the BCG index, which indicates the degree of universal BCG vaccination, was associated with a 10.4% reduction in Covid-19 mortality.”
        • “Most Asian countries have universal BCG vaccination programs, and the United States does not. According to the CDC, BCG is generally not recommended in the United States, because infection risk is low, the effectiveness of the of the vaccine can vary and it can potentially interfere with TB screening.”
        • The article does a good job of explaining the confounding variables and therefore why this is merely early hope, and not a more concrete solution.
    • “Gilead Sciences announced new findings Friday that its antiviral drug remdesivir reduced the risk of death for severely sick coronavirus patients by 62% compared with standard care alone, saying more research is needed.” 
      • “The company said it analyzed data from 312 patients enrolled in its phase three trial and compared it with that of 818 patients in ‘a real-world retrospective cohort’ with similar characteristics and disease severity who received standard care alone during the same time period as the phase three trial.  That means the company compared patients in its late-stage trial with patients receiving care in a real-world context. Different conditions in the different subsets of patients could complicate the findings.”
        • Ed. translates: This study is helpful, but was not executed as a randomized clinical trial.  There are possibly important biases (baked-in differences) between the two arms of the study.
        • Ed. also notes: the reduction is comparable to that found by the Henry Ford Health System study for HCQ.  Both results are notable and important.
    • “Chinese virologist accuses Beijing of coronavirus cover-up, flees Hong Kong: ‘I know how they treat whistleblowers.’”
      • “Li-Meng Yan told Fox News that she believes China knew about the coronavirus well before it claimed it did. She says her supervisors also ignored research she was doing that she believes could have saved lives.”
        • Ed. does not pretend for one second that this world-wide mess could have been averted had the C.C.P. been more forthcoming.  Maybe the world would have had more time to prepare, and maybe we would not have squandered that time.  But ultimately the disease still would have escaped any containment, ravaged the entire world, and all its citizens would all still be locked in our homes and our grandparents would still be dead.
    • Related, from Trudeau’s Canada: “Amazon just banned the best-selling book, China Virus”, screams its publisher.
      • “Amazon originally refused to upload the book, fighting with us for two months. But then they relented. And the book became an instant bestseller, reaching no. 1 on Kindle in Canada and no. 2 as a paperback. It was a huge bestseller.  And now it’s been deleted. It’s China-style censorship.”
      • Ed. notes that refusing to carry and sell a book is not the same as banning a book.  But it is all too typical today to embrace strong-arm tactics rather than endure open debate.
        • And isn’t it funny how one can get in all kinds of hot water for not baking a cake for someone, but suffer no repercussions at all for not selling a book for someone? 
    • “An NBC medical expert who was brought on air nearly a dozen times to detail his struggle with COVID-19 never had the virus, he revealed this week.”
      • “After believing he had the coronavirus in spite of getting negative tests, virologist and NBC News science contributor Dr. Joseph Fair tweeted Tuesday that he had tested negative for the antibodies and that the illness that hospitalized him in May ‘remains an undiagnosed mystery.’ Steve Krakauer reported on the developments for his Fourth Watch newsletter.” 
    • “California to release up to 8,000 prisoners to curb spread of coronavirus.”
      • “The announcement of the relief efforts comes following intense pressure on the administration from state officials, organizers, and families of incarcerated people who insist that large-scale releases are the only way to avoid more widespread infections in and outside of prisons.”
        • Infections, sure.  How about deaths?  There have been TWENTY-NINE total CV19-related deaths in California prisons as of this week, out of 5,372 cases among a population of 118,587.  That is an infection rate of 4.5%, and an infection fatality rate of 0.54%.
        • The infection rate in L.A. County (total confirmed cases = 127,000; population = 10,118,000) is about 1.3%.  The IFR in L.A. County is about 2.9% (3,738 deaths out of 127,000 confirmed cases).
        • So, in conclusion: we must release the murderers into the public, even though the numbers show they are less vulnerable in prison than the general public is.  How many people will be robbed, shot, beaten, murdered for this folly?
    • “Filling middle seats on airplanes doubles the risk of catching COVID-19, according to an MIT study.”
      • “While the risk remains relatively low, partly thanks to the air circulation and filters on most airplanes, the statistical model shows that the risk is significantly lower when middle seats are left empty.”
        • See entry from Jul. 9 for analysis of airline CV19 safety.
      • “The study comes as American Airlines and United face criticism for filling planes, while Delta and Southwest are leaving middle seats open.”

    Jul 12:
    • “Man, 30, Dies After Attending a ‘Covid Party,’ Texas Hospital Says.”
      • “‘I thought this was a hoax,’ the man told his nurse, a hospital official said.”
    • “Dr. Atlas: Coronavirus surges linked mostly to protests -- and proximity to US-Mexico border.”
      • Ed. opines: it does not matter for some.  Catching the bug is about probabilities, and probabilities compound when all your children and grandchildren are running around like nothing is whone.  The outbreak will reach the vulnerable innocents through various networks, and kill them. 
    • Florida: “A surge of coronavirus cases in Florida has maxed out dozens of intensive care units (ICUs) at hospitals around the state, following an attempt by local officials to institute a phased reopening of the economy.”
      • “‘We’re putting ourselves at risk and other people aren’t willing to do anything and in fact go the other way and be aggressive to promote the disease,’ Dr. Andrew Pastewski, who serves as ICU medical director at Jackson South Medical Center, told Reuters. ‘It’s just disheartening.’”
      • Florida’s new ICU database is here. Last updated, today at 9:45 PM EDT.  
        • Ed. runs through the dashboard, sorted by large hospitals in large counties, and simply cannot find any ICU that is reporting it is full.
    • Over here in Newsom’s perfect California: Ha ha ha.

    Jul. 13:
    • “The risk of dying from Covid-19—by age, sex, weight, and ethnicity.”
      • A large study that extends beyond the U.S.
    • “HCQ Helps Contain COVID-19 Cases: New Evidence and a Major Retraction.”
      • “While HCQ is no miracle cure, the evidence continues to mount that the drug is a safe and effective treatment or prophylactic measure against COVID-19.”
      • “Also on Friday, Retraction Watch reported that The Lancet, the prestigious Britsh medical journal — had quietly retracted and replaced an anti-HCQ editorial by Christian Funck-Brentano it had published in May.”
    • Related, from Retraction Watch: “A month after Surgisphere paper retraction, Lancet retracts, replaces hydroxychloroquine editorial.”
    • “Gordon Chang: Exiled Scientist’s Claim That China Accidentally Released COVID-19 Is ‘Credible’.”
      • This refers to Li-Meng Yan, introduced in this blog on Jul. 11. 
      • “‘She carries a message that is going to be discordant with what we hear elsewhere because this has become, like, President Trump versus everybody else,’ Chang told host Tucker Carlson. ‘And so you have a lot of people propagating China’s narratives in this country because it is politically expedient for them to do so in the short term. And, of course, we are in a political season.’”
        • [Ed opines: Plenty of politics lines up with or against this story; read it yourself and wait and see.]
    • “Texas Medical Center says ICU occupancy on pace to reach Phase 3 by July 23.”
      • “Within the Texas Medical Center system, Phase 1 is the current ICU configuration under non-pandemic conditions, Phase 2 adds an additional 1,703 ICU beds and Phase 3 plans temporary ICU surge capacity through an additional 2,207 beds.  Currently, TMC are 24% into their Phase 2 plans for intensive care, according to the latest information posted on its website, with 1,420 total ICU beds occupied throughout the system.”
        • [Contents at link are ephemeral.  Good luck.]
    • “CDC now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 don’t have any symptoms.”
    • “The coronavirus ‘shut down’ this healthy 24-year-old’s organs.”  The young man, Davon Hill, is now dead.
      • “Doctors treated Hill with convalescent plasma, which is derived from people who’ve recovered from Covid-19 and is being tested as a potential treatment for the disease. However, according to [Hill’s adoptive mother Donna] Hendrix, Hill received the experimental treatment only after she mentioned it to his providers. Hendrix said she as if Hill’s treatment was ‘being made up as [clinicians] went along.’”
      • “Timothy Hendrix, Hill’s adoptive father, said Hill was ‘heavy’ but worked out daily and was otherwise healthy. Timothy said he posted a message on Facebook regarding Hill’s death to warn others of the novel coronavirus’ dangers—dangers he didn’t take seriously, himself.”
    • “Is the CDC About to Downgrade Coronavirus From ‘Epidemic’ Status?” [See entry Jul. 6]
      • “An article from website Collective Evolution went viral on Facebook with claims that ‘The COVID-19 death rate across the US has now been confirmed to be so low that it’s on the edge of no longer being qualified as an epidemic.’”
      • “While the Collective Evolution article does accurately quote the CDC update, it left out the sentence immediately following the above quote, which reads: ‘The percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.’ To be exact, the CDC anticipates the death rate to increase.” [Emphasis: theirs.]
    • “Drugmakers will start coronavirus vaccine production by end of summer, Trump health officials say.”
      • “The U.S. is aiming to deliver 300 million doses of a vaccine for Covid-19 by early 2021. The manufacturing process is already underway even though they aren’t sure which vaccine, if any, will work, the official told reporters on a conference call.”
      • “The administration has selected four potential vaccines as the most likely candidates, but the official said Monday that that list could grow. On the list are vaccines from biotech firm Moderna and Johnson & Johnson.”
    • “Russia Completes Human Trials Of Covid-19 Vaccine.”
      • “After Brazil was the first emerging market to get a test drive of the Oxford University coronavirus vaccine, it’s Russia that is the first to complete human trials.”
      • “Some 20 people volunteered for the injection.  After being given the shot, the volunteers were asked to quarantine in the hospital for 28 days.”
        • [Ed. opines: apparently this trial is about safety, not efficacy, and the sample size is quite small.]
    • “Immunity to Covid-19 can vanish in months, study suggests.”
      • “A UK study found that 60 per cent of people retained the “potent” level of antibodies required to resist future infections in the two weeks around the first sign of symptoms.  However, that proportion dropped to less than 17 per cent after three months, according to researchers at King’s College London.”
      • “Prof Jonathan Heeney, a virologist at the University of Cambridge, said there was a growing body of evidence that immunity Covid-19 is short-lived.  ‘Most importantly, it puts another nail in the coffin of the dangerous concept of herd immunity,’ he said of the UK study.”
        • [Ed. does not trust this result.  There’s just so much we don’t know.  Why, for this bug, would antibodies fade?  Do they fade for other coronaviruses?]
    • Related, since the UK study referenced and relied on this study: “Chinese study: Antibodies in COVID-19 patients fade quickly.”
      • “The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection.”
      • Here is the money paragraph from the paper: “The strength and duration of immunity after infection are key issues for ‘shield immunity’18 and for informing decisions on how and when to ease physical distancing restrictions. Previous studies have shown that circulating antibodies against SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV last for at least 1 year. Sustained IgG levels were maintained for more than 2 years after SARS-CoV infection. Antibody responses in individuals with laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infection lasted for at least 34 months after the outbreak. Recently, several studies characterizing adaptive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection have reported that most COVID-19 convalescent individuals have detectable neutralizing antibodies, which correlate with the numbers of virus-specific T cells. In this study, we observed that IgG levels and neutralizing antibodies in a high proportion of individuals who recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection start to decrease within 2–3 months after infection. In another analysis of the dynamics of neutralizing antibody titers in eight convalescent patients with COVID-19, four patients showed decreased neutralizing antibodies approximately 6–7 weeks after illness onset. One mathematical model also suggests a short duration of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Together, these data might indicate the risks of using COVID-19 ‘immunity passports’ and support the prolongation of public health interventions, including social distancing, hygiene, isolation of high-risk groups and widespread testing. Additional longitudinal serological studies profiling more symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals are urgently needed to determine the duration of antibody-mediated immunity. In addition, low levels of anti-viral IgG in asymptomatic patients, who might be more likely to become seronegative, further support the need for timely serosurvey to study the true infection rate.”
        • [So, ed. asks again:  Why, for this bug, would antibodies fade?  The above says antibodies do not fade for other coronaviruses...?]
    • “Potential Drug Candidate Emerges as Llama Antibodies Found to Neutralize COVID-19’s Spike Protein.”
      • “Two nanobodies—small, stable immune cells similar to various antibodies and derived from llamas—have been found in tests to neutralize COVID-19 by blocking its interaction with the human receptor that it binds to.”
      • “Both llama nanobodies were shown to neutralize live COVID-19, and showed particularly high potency and increased neutralization potential when combined with a human antibody. The findings were published in Nature Structural & Molecular Biology paper.”
      • See entry in this blog on May 8 reporting similar action on llama antibodies.
    • “UK neurologists publish details of mildly affected or recovering Covid-19 patients with serious or potentially fatal brain conditions.”
      • “The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.”
    • “Blood test at COVID-19 diagnosis can predict disease severity, study finds.”
      • “The UVA scientists found that the levels of a particular cytokine in the blood upon diagnosis could be used to predict later outcomes. Cytokines – proteins produced by immune cells – are responsible for severe overreactions by the immune system, known as cytokine storms, associated with COVID-19 and other serious illnesses.”

    Jul 15:
    • A careful rebuttal of the New York TImes’ anti-Sweden “Cautionary Tale”.
      • “Last week, The New York Times labeled Sweden’s approach to the pandemic a ‘cautionary tale’ for the rest of the world, claiming it ‘yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage.’  To be accurate, Sweden has outperformed many nations around the world with its ‘lighter touch’ approach and was one of the few nations in Europe to see its economy grow in the first quarter of 2020.” [What about the second quarter?]
      • “With the exception of a single death on July 13, no deaths in this nation of 10 million have been reported since July 10.”
      • “‘I’m looking forward to a more serious evaluation of our work than has been made so far,’ [Sweden’s top infectious disease expert, Anders] Tegnell, said in a recent podcast published by Swedish public radio before taking a scheduled vacation. ‘There is no way of knowing how this ends.’”
        • Ed. opined on Jun. 1, in response to another hit piece, the problem with analysis like this is that it conflates goals.  The Swedes are playing the long game, but the author is calling “failure” based on short-game goals.  It’s not even the end of the first quarter of the long game.  You cannot call this a failure until the epidemic is over and we can tally everything up.
    • “Florida’s recent record day for COVID-19 might not have been quite that high.”
      • “Over the weekend, Florida made international headlines when it reported a shocking number of positive COVID-19 test results: More than 15,000 in a single day.  But it turns out that report contained numbers gathered over several days by a single laboratory.  More than 7,000 of the 15,000 positive cases reported have been traced to GENETWORx in Richmond, Virginia.”
      • “The company, which is Florida’s fourth-largest processor of tests, said in a statement it looks like the Florida Department of Health reported in a single day, lab results that had been collected over the course of four to five days.”
    • Related: “FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Florida Department of Health says some labs have not reported negative COVID-19 results.”
      • “FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.”
      • “The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health’s positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.”
      • “The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.”
        • Ed. opines: How do you screw things up this badly?  Answer: Reports automated by computer software written by morons with no testing or even sanity checking.
    • Again, or, still: “TB vaccine may protect against COVID-19 infection, studies say.”
      • See entry May 13.  The facts of the matter remain unchanged.  The vaccine is not widely used in the U.S.
    • “COVID-19 symptoms persist for weeks after hospital discharge for most survivors.”
      • “Even a month after hospital discharge and ‘recovery,’ a majority of patients who had survived severe COVID-19 were still dealing with fatigue, shortness of breath and other symptoms, Italian research shows.  The study tracked outcomes for 143 hospitalized patients treated in April in Rome, at the height of the Italian COVID-19 pandemic.”
    • “Melatonin Inhibits COVID-19-induced Cytokine Storm by Reversing Aerobic Glycolysis in Immune Cells: A Mechanistic Analysis.”
      • “The pathogenesis of a COVID-19 respiratory infection, in a major way, is related to what is referred to as the cytokine storm.”
      • “A causative factor related to the hyper-inflammatory state of immune cells is their ability to dramatically change their metabolism. Similar to cancer cells in many solid tumors, immune cells such as macrophages/monocytes under inflammatory conditions abandon mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation for ATP production in favor of cytosolic aerobic glycolysis.”
      • “Because of melatonin’s potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities, it would normally reduce the highly proinflammatory cytokine storm and neutralize the generated free radicals thereby preserving cellular integrity and preventing lung damage. In the absence of acetyl-coenzyme A, mitochondrial melatonin is no longer available to combat the inflammatory response or to neutralize the generated reactive oxygen species and the massive damage that occurs in the respiratory tree resulting in the primary signs of COVID-19 disease.”
      • “Melatonin is inexpensive, non-toxic over a very wide dose range, has a long shelf-life and can be self-administered which is a major advantage when large numbers of individuals are involved. Thus, the use of melatonin to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic would be feasible and a socially-responsible measure to attempt.”
        • Ed. reads this stuff so that you don’t have to!
    • “A study of 2,000 children and teachers at schools in the German state of Saxony has found very few antibodies among them.”
      • “The results showed that out of 2,045 blood samples collected from students and teachers from across 13 secondary schools in the region only 12 samples were found to contain antibodies against Covid-19.”  The measurements were made in May.
      • “The results showed that ‘the dynamics of virus spreading have been overestimated,’ the universities said, adding that the study suggested that schools did not become the coronavirus ‘hotspot’ after reopening, as had been feared.”
        • Ed. remembers the study from Jul. 13 where antibodies faded away.
    • “Doctors in France have found what they say is the world’s first recorded case of a child contracting COVID-19 from its mother inside the womb.”
    • “CDC says U.S. could get coronavirus under control in one to two months if everyone wears a mask.”
    • From the same article: “The CDC released a new study that said state leaders should consider requiring face coverings to reduce the spread of the virus.”
      • “The study looked at two Missouri hair stylists who were infected with Covid-19 but didn’t pass it on to their clients.”
    • “You’d Rather Get a Coronavirus Vaccine Through Your Nose. Some experts say a vaccine puffed in the nose would be better at protecting people from infection. But nasal vaccines won’t be ready right away.”
      • Ed. absolutely does not care what “some experts” say (especially when reported by the NY Times).  Ed. cares what the science says.
    • “Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine Moves to Bigger Study.”
      • “New U.S.-funded trial would seek 30,000 subjects and could deliver answer by year-end.”
      • “The new results, published online by the New England Journal of Medicine, showed that the vaccine induced the desired immune response for all 45 people evaluated—a larger group than in the preliminary data Moderna released in May—and was generally safe and well-tolerated.”
        • 30,000 is a large sample size, and is large enough to answer all questions.
    • “Is too much hope being put into a coronavirus vaccine?”
      • “Vaccines are hard to develop, and can be dangerous. This is a vaccine for a disease where 40% (at current estimate, up from 35% before) have no symptoms, and where only about .4% die. It’s also a widespread disease — this isn’t Ebola where you could vaccinate 50,000 people and bring an outbreak to an end. You’d have to vaccinate a billion or more. When you vaccinate huge numbers of people for a disease that isn’t very dangerous, your vaccine has to be very safe to be better than the disease. That doesn’t go well with a rushed development effort.”
        • Ed. retorts: It is a little disingenuous to quote a 0.4% death rate and a 40% rate of no symptoms.  What about the remaining 59.6%?  How do they get through this disease?  How many are hospitalized?  How many have lasting ill effects?  Permanent organ and brain damage?  PTSD?
    • HOLY MOLY.  So remember when the horrible Lancet article (with the very likely made-up data from Surgisphere) [see entries May 31, Jun. 2, 3, 4] was published showing HCQ was worse than no treatment?  Remember when W.H.O. suspended all HCQ trials as a result?  Well, little did W.H.O. know that they were setting up Switzerland to run an A-B-A comparison of treatment with and without HCQ!
      • “Switzerland, which had been using the treatment, prohibited the use of the drug in COVID-19 shortly after that on May 27th. … [T]he ban was not lifted in Switzerland until June 11th.  This window allowed French researchers to analyze what happened in the entire population of COVID-19 patients during the ban. They used the case fatality rate (CFR) as the measure observed.” 
      • “The graph is stunning.” [from the original article (in English) appearing in France Soir.]
      • France Soir:
        • “For those who are not convinced of the observational result, we conducted a statistical difference test by comparing the three periods: May 28th – June 8th, June 9th – 22nd, June 23rd – July 6th . The period from June 9th till the 22nd is that in which the index increased some 13 days after the suspension of hydroxychloroquine. There is of course an effect of delay between stopping the prescription of the drug and possible deaths, which explains the delay of 13 days.”
        • “We therefore observe that for the period from the 28th of May till the 8th of June, the index is 2.39% and then [climbs] to 11.52% or 4.8 times more and then drops to 3%.”
        • “When testing for statistical significance between the various observations, the difference is significant at 99% with a p <0.0001. 13 days after the HCQ prescription was resumed, the index dropped to 3% and this was again a significant effect.”
      • Ed notes: France Soir is really pissed off that France has outlawed the use of HCQ for so long.  It is worth reading the French journalist write so damningly about his own country’s policies, translated into English.  The Gallic pique comes right though.
    • U.S. new deaths per day: there is a lot of ink spilled to instruct us about what we should think.  
      • The red ‘X’ represents an ex-post-facto addition of deaths that happened earlier (an accounting correction) made by New Jersey on Jun. 25.  The swale trend (again in red, drawn by ed. by hand) appears statistically real.  What will it do next?
    • Drug Tricor could eradicate CV19 from lungs ‘in days’ by preventing it from hijacking cells
      • “Researchers at Israel’s Hebrew University of Jerusalem and New York’s Mount Sinai Medical Center believe they could potentially downgrade COVID-19’s severity into nothing worse than a common cold.  New research by Hebrew University Prof. Ya’acov Nahmias and Sinai’s Dr. Benjamin tenOever revealed that the FDA-approved drug Fenofibrate (Tricor) could reduce SARS-CoV-2’s ability to reproduce or even make it disappear.”
      • “What [the researchers] found is that the novel coronavirus prevents the routine burning of carbohydrates, which results in large amounts of fat accumulating inside lung cells – a condition the virus needs to reproduce.”
      • “Tricor caused the cells to start burning fat, Nahmias said. The result was that the virus almost completely disappeared [in lab studies using lung tissue] within only five days of treatment.”
      • “The team is advancing to animal studies in New York and hoping to fast-track clinical studies in both Israel and the US within the next couple of weeks, since the drug is already proven safe.”

    Jul. 16:
    • T cells are getting more interesting.
      • “[A]ntibody profiling (while very important) is not the whole story, and we need to know what we’re missing.”
      • “Now comes a new paper in press at Nature. It confirms that convalescent patients from the current epidemic show T-cell responses […] Turning to patients who had caught SARS back in 2003 and recovered, it is already known (and worried about) that their antibody responses faded within two or three years. But this paper shows that these patients still have (17 years later!) a robust T-cell response to the original SARS coronavirus’s N protein, which extends an earlier report of such responses going out to 11 years. This new work finds that these cross-react with the new SARS CoV-2 N protein as well. This makes one think, as many have been wondering, that T-cell driven immunity is perhaps the way to reconcile the apparent paradox between (1) antibody responses that seem to be dropping week by week in convalescent patients but (2) few (if any) reliable reports of actual re-infection.”
    • “FDA investigates lab as tens of thousands of COVID-19 test results in Florida are questioned.”
      • “USAToday reports AdventHealth, which has 45 hospitals in nine states, terminated its Florida contract with MicroGen DX due to concerns about the validity of some of the 60,000 tests MicroGen had processed for the system because the lab left them at room temperature for days, according to an AdventHealth statement. The specimens should be refrigerated at 2 to 7 degrees Celsius (about 32 degrees Fahrenheit) and then put in freezers at -70 degrees Celsius after three days, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
      • “The company is also selling a saliva-only test that can be administered in a ‘hospital, clinic, drive-thru clinic or at-home,’ in all 50 states without an Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, said MicroGen spokeswoman Ashley Moore. An authorized Emergency Use Authorization is required in a public health emergency, according to the Food and Drug Administration, for ‘any COVID-19 test for at-home testing, with or without the use of telemedicine.’  MicroGen CEO Rick Martin said he doesn’t believe the company needs one.”
    • The number of positive tests vs. the number of severe cases vs. the number of deaths: one is hotly reported in the press, the second plays up regional struggles, the third hardly at all.  Another way to understand is this very nice interactive visualization from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. [It is the first of several visualizations, near the top of the page.]
      • Here you see Infection Fatality Rate (I.F.R., called Case Fatality Rate here), for various countries selected by ed.  For example, ed. will pick on his favorite whipping-boy country, the U.K., which has a I.F.R. of 15.4 (yikes!!).  You have a one-in-six chance of dying if you are tested positive for the disease in the U.K.
        • Whereas, in the U.S., the I.F.R. is reported as 3.9 (yikes!!).  You have a one-in-twenty-five chance of dying if you are tested positive for the disease in the U.S.
      • Here you see the cumulative case count.  U.K. is at 4,200 per million persons; U.S. is at 10,400 per million persons.
        • So let’s do the arithmetic: U.S. case count is 2.5 times that of U.K., normalized by population.  U.K. I.F.R. is 3.9 times that of U.S.  So which country is doing better?  Which country is “losing the war”?
        • Ed. acknowledges that, with so many cases running around, we are stressing our systems and putting vulnerable people at risk.  That is true.  But to avoid that, we would have to stay mostly locked down until a vaccine arrives or the bug mutates into the common cold.  How long would the depression that causes last?  How many people would die?
    • Related: a friend on Facebook relates his battle to disabuse people of the claim that the U.S.’s surging case count can be explained simply by more testing.  Can it?
      • Then answer is: it’s complicated.
      • As shown above, the I.F.R. in the U.S. has dropped from a high of around 6% to a current value of 3.9%.  Possible explanations are: 
        • Better treatment is saving more sick people.
        • The bug has mutated into something less virulent.
        • More people are being tested and found to have the bug, but they are not as sick as those who were tested early on (the hypothesis my friend wishes to reject)
      • If we wish to test the ‘we’re testing more’ hypothesis, we could look at test positivity rates.  Wouldn’t it make sense that, if increased testing is driving case count, then positivity rates would at worst hold steady, and more likely drop?  Alas, that is not the case!
        • The positivity rate hit a peak at 21%, dropped to 4.5% in mid-June, and has climbed to 8.5% since.  As much as we’re testing, we’re collecting more and more positives as a fraction!
      • Finally, one more look which should disprove the hypothesis bothering my friend.  Here is the number of tests per day, on a seven-day average:

    New tests per day, seven-day average


    New positive cases per day, seven-day average
        • So the testing is growing linearly, and the number of new cases is growing linearly, but much, much faster.  New cases per day doubled in 21 days (red lines), but new tests per day rose only by only 40% during that time.
          • So one could argue that, at most, about half (4.5% divided by 8.5%) of about 40% of new cases could be explained by increased testing.  
      • Ed. has his own hypothesis: young, healthy people are protesting, rioting, looting, and/or going to bars and clubs.  They can’t take the lockdowns anymore.  And so they are getting the bug.  And when they get it, many of them get tested, and we see case counts increase.  But most of them don’t die from it.  The mortality rate for health people under age 40 is very low.
        • Eventually, however, with so many infected people running around, the bug will sneak through the porous defenses we have that currently protect our most vulnerable.  And that, ed. believes, explains the small but significant rise in daily deaths we are seeing.
    • Related: life and death near the border with Mexico, in Texas.
      • “Cities in the Rio Grande Valley fiercely enforced mask and stay-at-home orders, writing hundreds of citations, and Covid cases stayed low for months. In May, Gov. Greg Abbott overturned local mask regulations and reopened the state, citing a need to revive businesses from economic devastation. Doctors said the move sent people flocking to bars and restaurants, and close-knit families to celebrations again without restraint.”
      • “Frustration set in as Dr. Melendez watched the state open more quickly than he thought prudent. As control over restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of infection was wrested from local entities, he saw residents go back to happily socializing.”
        • There is probably in influx of Mexican-Americans who got sick in Mexico, as in other border towns, but the article doesn’t mention that.

    Jul. 17:
    • Ed. has been trying to get counts and trends for CV19 hospitalization.  Ed concludes that the data are junk.
      • JHU’s website painfully reveals a total of 271,758 hospitalizations
        • One has to add up all the state hospitalizations in the upper right of their dashboard
        • Alaska, California, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana and the District of Columbia all show zero cumulative hospitalizations.
        • JHU does not provide the data download, nor any historical views of hospitalization.
      • The C.D.C. runs a website called COVID-NET, and reports weekly hospitalizations.  It reports a total hospitalization count of 34,791 cumulative (total) hospitalizations.  (That’s only different by a factor of 8!)
        • To get the data to add up right, it must be that each bar in the chart represents new hospitalizations.
        • So this data cannot tell us about concurrent hospitalizations (how full a hospital is) at all!
      • Worldometer reports something called ‘Serious/Critical’ cases for the U.S. each day.  Ed. used a web archive service to look at each Worldometer page for 120 days and web-scrape Worldometer’s numbers from Mar. 15 to the present.  
        • (Judging from the column name, these data represent current hospitalizations, not new hospitalizations.  But there is no way to get cumulative from current, since people stay an unknown time in the hospital.)
        • Nevertheless, Worldometer’s data report a max of about 17,300 hospitalizations late May, tailing down to 15,800 currently.
      • Ed. makes lemonade from the data lemons: assuming the data are sampled consistently over time, we can still observe the changing rate.  So while positive cases are climbing, hospitalization counts and serious/critical counts are falling.
        • Unsurprisingly, then, the mix of those hospitalized is trending significantly younger, in support of ed.’s theory that mostly young people are being infected.
      • Even here, though, one gets concurrent hospitalizations, not new hospitalizations or durations.

    Jul. 20:
    • “The current CDC nucleic acid test kits for SARS-CoV-2 generate 30% false-positive and 20% false-negative results in the best state public health laboratory, Dr. Sin Hang Lee reported in a peer-reviewed article published in the International Journal of Geriatrics and Rehabilitation.”
      • The article is tough sledding, but the problem seems to have arisen over a mutation in the genetic sequence of the bug.
      • “Using [the more expensive, tedious, and accurate] Sanger sequencing as a tool for molecular validation, one of the two false-negative samples supplied by the Connecticut State Laboratory was found to contain a mutant with a novel single nucleotide A insertion in the N gene and a wild-type parental SARS-CoV-2, indicating that a newly developed mutant and its parental virus can co-infect the same host, as illustrated in this N gene sequence published in the article.”  Yeah, tough sledding reading this...
      • Ed. notes that ‘one of the two false-negative samples’ indicates we’re not dealing with a large sample.
      • Ed. wonders: triggering on mutations seems like the right thing.  
      • And finally: Ed. recommends waiting on this one.  It it is important, it will be explained properly.
    • “Oxford University Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Produces Strong Immune Response.”
      • “The potential vaccine, which the U.K. university developed in partnership with drugmaker AstraZeneca, was administered in a trial that involved 1,077 people and caused an immune response in people aged 18 to 55 that lasted two months or slightly longer, according to data published Monday by the medical journal The Lancet. The vaccine, which is made from a combination of coronavirus genetic material and a virus that causes the common cold in chimpanzees, caused the body to produce antibodies against the coronavirus and caused a reaction in T-cells, a type of white blood cell that also helps stave off infection.”
        • Ed. notes: we want to see a good response in the T-cell arm of the human immune system.  See first entry Jul. 16.
    • “Texas Department of Health removes over 3,000 ‘probable’ COVID-19 cases from overall count.”
      • “‘The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting ‘probable’ cases for people never actually tested, as ‘confirmed’ positive cases,’ KDFW-TV news anchor Steve Eagar tweeted on Wednesday.”
      • “According to KSAT-TV, the Texas Department of State Health Services can declare a person to be COVID-19-positive without getting a polymerase chain reaction diagnostic test as long as the individual meets two out of three of the following criteria:
        • A positive quick-result antigen test 
        • Experiencing COVID-19 symptoms 
        • Close contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case”
      • “Antigen tests are quick-response tests that "usually provide results diagnosing an active coronavirus infection faster than molecular tests, but antigen tests have a higher chance of missing an active infection," according to the Food and Drug Administration.”
      • “‘From a science perspective and medical perspective, it doesn’t make any sense to not count these test results, as they are just as accurate in determining positive cases,’ [San Antonio Mayor Ron] Nirenberg said Friday. ‘This gives us a better sense of where the infections are so we can control it.’”

    Jul. 24:
    • “As many as two-thirds of American adults have underlying health conditions that put them at increased risk for severe COVID-19, according to data released Thursday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
      • “At minimum, roughly half of U.S. adults have at least one of five high-risk health problems, which include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and obesity.”
      • “Obesity was the most common underlying condition reported at 35%, followed by diabetes, 13%, COPD and heart disease, each at 9%, and chronic kidney disease, at 3%, the CDC researchers found.”
    • “The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It”
      • “As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.”
        • “I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.”
      • “Physicians who have been using these medications in the face of widespread skepticism have been truly heroic. They have done what the science shows is best for their patients, often at great personal risk. I myself know of two doctors who have saved the lives of hundreds of patients with these medications, but are now fighting state medical boards to save their licenses and reputations. The cases against them are completely without scientific merit.” [Emphasis: ed.]
    • “Hydroxychloroquine could save up to 100,000 lives if used for COVID-19: Yale epidemiology professor”
      • “‘All the evidence is actually good for it when it is used in outpatient uses. Nevertheless, the only people who actually say that are a whole pile of doctors who are on the front lines treating those patients across the country and they are the ones who are at risk being forced not to do it,’ Risch said, arguing that the mainstream media is not covering the benefits of hydroxychloroquine.”
      • “‘Our results do differ from some other studies,’ Dr. Marcus Zervos, who heads the [Henry Ford Health System in Southeast Michigan] infectious diseases unit, said at a news conference. ‘What we think was important in ours ... is that patients were treated early. For hydroxychloroquine to have a benefit, it needs to begin before the patients begin to suffer some of the severe immune reactions that patients can have with COVID.’”
    • “COVID-19 increases death risk for cancer patients 16-fold, study says”
      • “The study was based on an analysis of the health records of 212,000 people living with cancer. It found that a COVID-19 diagnosis raised a patient’s odds of death 16-fold, compared to cancer patients without the coronavirus.  Cancer patients with COVID-19 were also more likely to have other health issues, such as kidney failure, obesity or heart disease -- all of which have also been tied to an increased risk for severe coronavirus illness.”
      • “Compared to cancer patients without COVID-19, those with the illness were also more prone to requiring hospitalization and even the need for ventilator assistance to keep them alive, the study found.”
    • “At-home COVID-19 test kits accurate, might bolster screening effort, study says.”
      • “At-home nasal swab-based tests for COVID-19 correctly diagnose 80% of people with the virus and 98% of those who don’t have it, a study published Wednesday by JAMA Network Open found.”
      • The publication compares 185 at home samples collected from individuals who also had swabs taken by medical professionals
      • The confusion matrix is here, and simplified for easier reading by ed.:
      • There is a good discussion about the possible reasons for differences in the UPI article.
    • “The Best And Worst Face Masks For COVID-19, Ranked by Their Level of Protection.”
      • “A study published in the Journal of Hospital Infection last month evaluated more than 10 masks based on their ability to filter airborne coronavirus particles.”
        • “The researchers found that N99 masks reduced a person’s risk of infection by 94 to 99 percent after 20 minutes of exposure in a highly contaminated environment. N95 masks offered almost as much protection – the name refers to its minimum 95 percent efficiency at filtering aerosols.”
          • Ed. says: if you use an N95 mask, make sure it is not one with a one-way valve, which offers those around you no protection from your possible germs, and is therefore makes you appear extremely rude and selfish to those that are at high risk:
      • “Another recent study also determined that N95 masks offered better protection than surgical masks.”
      • “In general, surgical masks are about three times as effective at blocking virus-containing aerosols than homemade face masks, a 2013 study found. But healthcare workers should still have access to them first.”
        • Ed. opines: Baloney!  If you can buy disposable surgical masks, buy them.  Clinicians and healthcare workers don’t buy masks through the channels regular people do.  Suppliers will fill the healthcare preferentially.  They are not stupid.  The fact that there are masks in the regular-people channels means that healthcare channel needs are being met.
          • Also, they can be used over and over with suitable decontamination periods in between.  Ed. has used two of his 50 so far.
    • “COVID-19’s Long-Term Effects Raise the Stakes of the Game.  This isn’t ‘just a flu.’”
      • “The manifestations of ME/CFS [myalgic encephalomyelitis or chronic fatigue syndrome] can persist for years, although we can’t yet know what the typical, long-term post-COVID-19 symptomatology will be. What we do know, however, is that in recent decades, outbreaks of other infectious diseases, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) (both of which are also caused by coronaviruses), as well as West Nile virus, H1N1 influenza, and Ebola—have all been followed by a range of long-term complaints that resemble those of ME/CFS. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see this phenomenon repeated in COVID-19 patients.”
        • [Ed. will try to find data about long-term non-fatal outcomes.]
    • “D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s (D) most recent mask mandate, which orders three-year-olds to cover their faces, exempts lawmakers and government employees while they are ‘on duty.’”
    • “On July 9, 2020, Asia’s biggest and densest slum shocked the world by announcing just one new positive COVID-19 case despite being a cluster and hotspot.”
      • “India feared the worst when a cluster outbreak of COVID-19 was reported in Dharavi. It could have become the biggest COVID-19 disaster zone in the world. But by using proactive measures, Dharavi contained the virus.”
      • “[Media r]eports credit the huge turnaround to various factors. Most focused on Dharavi’s use of widespread testing and contact tracing. One is the use of an anti-malarial drug. But they ignored the policy most responsible. Indian doctors used hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for prophylaxis (preventive) treatment — the same drug the American media have politicized.”
        • “Officials have credited this turnaround to ‘[a] combination of hydroxychloroquine, vitamin D, and zinc tablets along with homeopathic medicines.’”
    • “Inhaled form of interferon beta shows promise in COVID-19 treatment, maker says”
      • “Interferon beta, originally developed to treat asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, reduces the risk for serious illness and the need for ventilator support in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, according to preliminary findings of a Phase 1 clinical trial released Monday.”
      • “‘The results confirm our belief that interferon beta ... has huge potential as an inhaled drug to be able to restore the lung’s immune response, enhancing protection, accelerating recovery and countering the impact of [the new coronavirus],’ chief investigator Tom Wilkinson said in a statement.”
      • “Its use is based on the theory that interferon beta deficiency in the lungs explains why some people are more prone to severe lung disease during respiratory viral infections than others, the company said.”
    • A good fisking of the media treatment of the rise in CV19 cases in sunbelt regions is here.  
      • It is an opinion piece, but it has lots of samples and quotes to support its thesis.
      • And lest we lose sight of the real crime:

    New Cases normalized by population, for NY and AZ, seven-day average.


    Cumulative deaths normalized by population, for NY and AZ.

    • “While the latest research suggests that antibodies against Covid-19 could be lost in just three months, a new hope has appeared on the horizon: the enigmatic T cell.”
      • [Readers of this blog already know about this, and the studies that show vaccines are developing T-cell response.  Nevertheless, the article is a good summary of the current situation, with a round-up of links.]
    • “More than 600,000 Tricare users in the military health system’s East Region received emails Friday asking them to consider donating blood for research as ‘survivors of COVID-19.’”
      • “Humana Military, the company that manages Tricare for part or all of 31 states and the District of Columbia, issued a call to blood donors located near military installations that are collecting plasma from recovered coronavirus patients, also known as convalescent plasma, as a potential treatment for the illness.  But the message went to every beneficiary located near a collection point.”
      • “Six hours later, Humana issued a mea culpa.  ‘In an attempt to educate beneficiaries who live close to convalescent plasma donation centers about collection opportunities, you received an email incorrectly suggesting you were a COVID-19 survivor. You have not been identified as a COVID-19 survivor and we apologize for the error and any confusion it may have caused,’ the company wrote.”
    • “Can you catch the coronavirus twice? Here’s what research says.”
      • It starts out repeating things that readers of this blog know are misguided, but then starts to debunk them.  From there, it gets better and better.
    • “Kimchi protects against COVID-19, a study says.”
      • “Fermented cabbage helps decrease levels of ACE2, an enzyme in the cell membrane mostly found in lungs that is used by COVID-19 as an entry point into the body. Consuming high levels of fermented cabbage brings down the number of ACE2, making it more difficult for the virus to enter the body. High in antioxidants, fermented cabbage is also good for boosting immunity.”
    • Fauci just can’t do anything right.  

    Jul 27:

    Daily new cases, seven-day average,
    select countries on a log scale.
    • Related: Italy seems to be passed it.
      • “Covid-19 never hit Rome as hard as it did Italy’s north, which may explain the relatively rapid return to normalcy. The country of 62 million was losing hundreds of people a day in March and April, and nearly half of Italy’s 35,000 deaths have occurred in the Lombardy region. Only 853 have died in Lazio, home to the nation’s capital. Fifteen deaths and 128 new cases were reported in all of Italy on July 21.”
      • Possibly related: “Luck? Genetics? Italian island spared from COVID outbreak.”
        • “Giglio’s first known COVID-19 case was a man in his 60s who arrived on Feb. 18 — a couple of days before Italy’s first “native case” would be diagnosed in the north. … On March 5, four days before the national lockdown was declared, three more visitors came from the mainland and would test positive on the island. One of them was a German man from northern Italy, the initial epicenter of Europe’s outbreak. He socialized for several days with longtime friends in Giglio, including in public eateries. After a week, due to a bad cough, he was tested on the island and the result was positive. He self-isolated in a house on Giglio. … There were other known cases, including an islander who had lived in Australia for two years before slipping back onto Giglio in mid-March during lockdown to see his parents. Three days after arriving on Giglio, he developed a mild fever and tested positive, Muti said. He self-isolated at his parents’ home.”
        • “No other case has surfaced on Giglio, including since lockdown was lifted in early June, and tourists from throughout Italy have been arriving.”
        • “In late April, just before the first lockdown travel restrictions would be eased, the islanders had their blood tested, lining up outside the island’s school and doctor’s office.  Of the 800 or so year-round residents, 723 volunteered to be tested.”  Only one person had antibodies.  
          • Various speculative explanations are made, including genetic variant.
    • “Electric utilities reveal what worked and what didn’t in COVID-19 responses.”
      • “[The New York Power Authority] began bringing beds into their plants, and even towed some dormitory-type trailers to work sites, so key workers could comfortably remain on-site around the clock. After several weeks, NYPA rotated them out and replaced them with a second shift. ‘Sequestering is one method of social distancing that was helpful for us in terms of making sure our essential personnel were safe,’ [chief operating officer Joseph] Kessler says.”
    • New cases have peaked in several recently surging states.

    Daily new cases, seven-day average,
    for selected states.
      • Did you read this in your newspaper?
      • And please keep this comparison in mind:

    Daily new deaths, seven-day average,
    for selected states including New York.
    • It’s a gruesome Magic 8-Ball: “Why do ‘mild’ Covid-19 cases sometimes linger for months? Here’s what experts say.”
      • “Overall, CDC data suggests that one out of five people who contract the virus end up being hospitalized because of the disease. And Aakriti Gupta from the Columbia University Irving Medical Center told Axios that, among hospitalized Covid-19 patients, ‘the proportion of people in which … multiple organ injury is occurring is higher than anything we’ve seen before.’”
      • “C. Brandon Ogbunu, an assistant professor at Yale University, said, ‘Even more so than other outbreaks, the variation from person to person, the multisystem nature, the way it hits demographics different, the way the disease manifests differently in national contexts—it defies a simple medical or biomedical narrative.’”
      • “A JAMA research letter found that 55% of surveyed patients in Italy who had been discharged from the hospital after recovering from Covid-19—and who had subsequently tested negative for the disease—were still experiencing three or more symptoms about two months after the disease’s onset.”
      • Conditions being tallied:
      • Explanations being hypothesized:
        • “A neurological condition called dysautonomia, which is associated with imbalances in the autonomic nervous system”
        • Chronic fatigue syndrome again
        • Black magic
        • Aliens

    Jul. 28:
    • “Moderna, Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccines Begin Final-Stage Testing.”
      • “Two of the most advanced experimental coronavirus vaccines entered the pivotal phase of their studies on Monday, with the first subjects receiving doses of vaccines developed by Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc.  Researchers evaluating the vaccines plan to enroll 30,000 people in separate last-stage, or phase 3 trials, results of which will determine whether the vaccines protect against symptomatic Covid-19, and whether they should be cleared for widespread use.”
    • Related: “The U.K.’s Response to Covid-19 Has Been World-Class: One country has done more than any other to stop the spread of the coronavirus.”
      • Ed. read this yesterday, but today it’s behind a paywall.  Ed found an archive at archive.today.  A copy of the same opinion piece was also published here.
      • “[T]he most important factor in the global response to Covid-19 has to be progress on the biomedical front, and on that score the U.K. receives stellar marks. In fact, I would argue, it is tops in the world, and certainly No. 1 on a per capita basis.”
      • “First, a cheap steroid known as dexamethasone was the first drug shown to reduce death in Covid-19 patients, and the trials proving its effectiveness came from the U.K., with Oxford University playing a prominent role. In one sample, the drug reduced deaths among a vulnerable group by one-third (it is less effective for milder cases). Dexamethasone is now a part of treatment regimens around the world, and even poor countries can afford it.”
      • “The world is also in the midst of a race to find a safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19. And so far the leading contender comes from the U.K. Results published on Monday indicate that the vaccine generated an immune response in a group of about 1,000 patients.” [Emph.: ed]
      • “By the way, if you are looking for the second leading candidate in the race to fight covid-19, the most plausible answer is the US, which has produced the useful antiviral remdesivir and is working on a broad array of vaccine candidates, with generally promising results, even if none of them is as far along as the work at Oxford.”
        • As far as ed. can tell, the two vaccines the U.S. is pursuing are pretty much exactly as far along as the Oxford
        • The author, an anglophile named Tyler Cowen, omits the contribution of other drugs (notable HCQ/Az/zinc), plus the terrible truth about the U.K.’s handling of this:

    Cumulative deaths normalized by population for select countries.
    Of major countries, only Belgium has had more deaths
    per million persons.  The U.K. has performed
    significantly worse than the much-maligned Sweden.
    • “Scientists Uncover Evidence That a Level of Pre-Existing COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 Immunity Is Present in the General Population.”
      • “Singapore study shows that SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells are present in all recovered COVID-19 patients.”
      • “These T cells were also found in all subjects who recovered from SARS 17 years ago, and in over 50% of both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 uninfected individuals tested, suggesting that a level of pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 immunity is present in the general population.”
      • “Infection and exposure to coronaviruses induces long-lasting memory T cells, which could help in the management of the current pandemic.”
    • If your job is science advising, do not confuse that with policy setting.  You are unqualified and see only a small part of the elephant.
      • “[I]n evolving public-health emergencies—despite the demand from some politicians to “Listen to the science!”—science alone can’t always determine the best course of action. Policymakers have to balance multiple, competing factors while working with imperfect information and uncertain science. In a pandemic, infectious-disease experts can advise that shutting down the economy will limit the spread of deadly disease. But experts from other fields might warn that the same action will also throw millions out of work and lead to increased deaths of people unable or unwilling to obtain medical care for emergencies and chronic diseases, more suicides, and more drug and alcohol abuse.”
      • “Shifting advice from public-health officials can also undermine their public credibility and erode public confidence. It becomes easy to ignore warnings to “follow the science” when the science is fluid. This is particularly true when it becomes clear that the original justification for the advice was misleading.”
        • Ed. opines: Dr. Fauci, working ed. believes from a good heart, was duped by a fawning media to be the source of policy, when he should only have offered input to policy makers.
    • Related:
      • “Was the lockdown successful? I say yes very successful. Successful in things like this. Anxiety hotline calls up 1000 percent. Child abuse both sexual and non up. Financially, emotional distress, Suicide. Alcohol. 150,000 Americans a month not receiving cancer screening. It’s been effective alright, in all the wrong metrics — in all the areas we didn’t want it to be effective. Delay in medical care. We talked about that. Orthopedics, nonessential. Suicide calls up 600 percent. Suicide calls. We heard other doctors mention this. So was the lockdown effective? If that’s the effect you were going for, then yes but it was trying to flatten the curve but it had these secondary consequences that I think are devastating. People staying indoors. No exercising as you mentioned. No Vitamin D.”
      • Ed. opines: by now readers know ed. is very scared of this disease, and the “gruesome Magic 8-Ball” that determines whether its victim is asymptomatic, gets the sniffles, survives with horrible organ damage, or dies horribly.  But, policy makers must make well-informed, holistic recommendations to maximize the public good, and safety from the disease at all costs is not a well-informed, holistic recommendation.  Large segments of the population sense it, and are spitting mad about it.
        • But progressive media, including all major social media, are heavily invested in CV19 safety at all costs.


    • Ed. found this a really interesting read about a kerfuffle around some anti-lockdown doctors who livestreamed some foolishness mixed in with valid criticism: “Facebook, Twitter, YouTube Remove Doctors’ Coronavirus Video, Claiming It Is ‘False’.”  
      • Some of the comments and claims are plain wrong.  And President Trump retweeted and retweeted the event.
      • The livestream and subsequent video were censored by all the big social media platforms.
      • From the article: “[Dr. Simone Gold, the group’s leader] does make some important points. […] Relentlessly reporting the large numbers of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths is encouraging irrational panic. Many fear they will contract coronavirus by touching something after an infected person touched it, yet CDC data shows that surface transmission is extremely unlikely. Most transmission comes from close contact with an infected person over a period of time — either sheltering at home with someone or living in close quarters like in nursing homes or jails.”
      • “Social media companies are in a tough spot on these issues. While hydroxychloroquine has proven effective against COVID-19 in many cases, blanket claims about it being a surefire “cure” are overstated. Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube want to avoid becoming vectors for the spread of misinformation.”  
        • “However, America does need a serious conversation about the societal tradeoffs of this pandemic. Medical experts are not unified in supporting continued lockdowns, and the coronavirus’s low death rate and hospitalization rate suggest that the paralyzing fears are overblown. Meanwhile, lockdowns are causing serious psychological and economic harm, devastation that must be weighed in the balance on this issue.”
    • Related: comments from a Dr. Daniel Eriskson at the same event.  Ed. has not confirmed his claims but has no reason to doubt that they are directionally correct.
      • “Was the lockdown successful? I say yes very successful. Successful in things like this. Anxiety hotline calls up 1000 percent. Child abuse both sexual and non up. Financially, emotional distress, Suicide. Alcohol. 150,000 Americans a month not receiving cancer screening. It’s been effective alright, in all the wrong metrics — in all the areas we didn’t want it to be effective. Delay in medical care. We talked about that. Orthopedics, nonessential. Suicide calls up 600 percent. Suicide calls. We heard other doctors mention this. So was the lockdown effective? If that’s the effect you were going for, then yes but it was trying to flatten the curve but it had these secondary consequences that I think are devastating. People staying indoors. No exercising as you mentioned. No Vitamin D.”
    • “EU talks with Pfizer, Sanofi, J&J on COVID vaccines hit snags - sources.”
      • “European efforts to secure potential COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are mired in wrangles over price, payment method and potential liability costs, three EU officials told Reuters.”
      • “France’s Sanofi is negotiating to supply 300 million doses of the potential vaccine it is developing with British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline to the EU and wants an immediate upfront payment for the entire stock, two officials said.  But the EU wants to pay in tranches and delay some payments until the vaccine has passed large clinical trials, the officials said.”
      • “The U.S. government last week agreed to pay nearly $2 billion to buy enough of the vaccine being developed by Pfizer and BioNTech to inoculate 50 million people, but with payments conditional on their vaccine being successful in large clinical trials.”
    • “Pfizer, BioNTech Start Late-Stage Study of Lead Covid Shot”
      • “Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE said they’ve begun a later-stage trial for their top coronavirus vaccine candidate and set a goal of submitting it for regulatory review as soon as October -- one of the most ambitious timelines to date.  The move pushes the New York-based pharmaceutical giant and its German partner closer to bringing a vaccine to market, and places them alongside frontrunners like Moderna Inc., which announced earlier Monday that it had started its own large, final-stage trial of a shot based on similar technology.”
    • “Experimental COVID-19 vaccine protects upper and lower airways in nonhuman primates.”
      • “Two doses of an experimental vaccine to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) induced robust immune responses and rapidly controlled the coronavirus in the upper and lower airways of rhesus macaques exposed to SARS-CoV-2, report scientists from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.  SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.  The candidate vaccine, mRNA-1273, was co-developed by scientists at the NIAID Vaccine Research Center and at Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts.”
        • Rhesus macaques monkeys are very good coronavirus models for how the disease works in humans.
    • “So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.”
      • “Nearly five months into the pandemic, all hopes of extinguishing COVID-19 are riding on a still-hypothetical vaccine. […] The vaccine probably won’t make the disease disappear. It certainly will not immediately return life to normal.”
      • “Biologically, a vaccine against the COVID-19 virus is unlikely to offer complete protection. Logistically, manufacturers will have to make hundreds of millions of doses while relying, perhaps, on technology never before used in vaccines and competing for basic supplies such as glass vials. Then the federal government will have to allocate doses, perhaps through a patchwork of state and local health departments with no existing infrastructure for vaccinating adults at scale. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has led vaccine distribution efforts in the past, has been strikingly absent in discussions so far—a worrying sign that the leadership failures that have characterized the American pandemic could also hamper this process. To complicate it all, 20 percent of Americans already say they will refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine, and with another 31 percent unsure, reaching herd immunity could be that much more difficult.”
        • Ed. is aghast at the fuzzy thinking in the above paragraph.
          • Shortages of glass vials?  Compared to the Herculean efforts to overcome other shortages, ed. snorts.
          • Allocate doses?  Does the author conclude that we also don’t know how to allocated flu vaccines every year?
          • Herd immunity?  So the author seems to be saying that if people refuse the vaccine, they won’t get the disease.  After all, if they did get the disease, and they developed antibodies and T cell resistance, well, that is the normal way of getting to herd immunity.  The author cannot have it both ways.
    • Round-up of all the vaccines in development: the sources do not agree and the documentation is confusing.

    Raps.org summary


    W.H.O. summary
    • How to think about Phase-3 trials?  Some thoughts published in the New England Journal of Medicine:
      • “Many phase 3 studies fail because of incorrect identification of the dose that best balances safety and efficacy. The dosing regimen for this mRNA vaccine is still under study. The 250-μg dose did not appear to be associated with markedly higher antibody titers than the 100-μg dose, but it was associated with a higher proportion of severe systemic adverse events. As the investigators indicate, it is prudent to evaluate doses of 100 μg and lower to define the regimen that provides the most appropriate benefit–risk profile for this vaccine. Another special dosing consideration in this case is age: the immune functions that decline with age and that are likely to be responsible for the greater risk of severe Covid-19 in older adults may also lead to poor vaccine responses. Will a high-dose Covid-19 vaccine be needed for effective protection of older adults, as observed with influenza vaccines?”

    Jul. 29:
    • “Sweden Unveils ‘Promising’ Covid-19 Data as New Cases Plunge”
      • “The Health Agency of Sweden says that since hitting a peak in late June, the infection rate has fallen sharply. That’s amid an increase in testing over the period. ‘The curves are going down and the curves for the seriously ill are beginning to approach zero,’ [state epidemiologist Anders] Tegnell said.”
      • “‘With numbers diminishing very quickly in Sweden, we see no point in wearing a face mask in Sweden, not even on public transport,’ [Tegnell] said.”
    • “More evidence that lack of vitamin D is linked to COVID-19 severity.”
      • “[T]he new study looked at 117 countries which had 150 or more COVID-19 cases to see how the virus affects different populations in different ways.”
      • “After taking into account age, latitude also remained a significant factor in higher mortality rates, with the researchers estimating that there is a 5 percent increase in death rates for each degree further north the country is located, above 28 degrees north. Above this latitude, say the researchers, people are often not exposed to a sufficient amount of ultraviolet B exposure, found in sunlight, to maintain normal vitamin D blood levels through winter and spring.”
      • “The evidence that a deficiency of vitamin D is linked with COVID-19 is now also growing. Although the link is not yet confirmed, the researchers recommend taking a daily supplement of 800-1000 International Units (20 -25 micrograms) daily to ensure normal vitamin D blood levels, especially for those who have a greater risk of deficiency, such as people with darker skin or those who spend a lot of time indoors.”
      • “Co-author Professor Jon Rhodes also added that, ‘Vitamin D is an unusual vitamin -- it is a hormone and we get most of it by the action of ultraviolet light on cholesterol in the skin. Unless you live in a sunny country or eat a very large amount of oily fish you are quite likely to need supplements to maintain a normal level.’”
    • Related: “Vitamin D appears to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates”
      • “Patients with severe deficiency are twice as likely to experience severe complications, including death.”
      • “By analyzing publicly available patient data from around the globe, [Northwestern University’s Vadim] Backman and his team discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm — a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system — as well as a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality.”
      • The cytokene storm “is exactly where Backman believes vitamin D plays a major role. Not only does vitamin D enhance our innate immune systems, it also prevents our immune systems from becoming dangerously overactive. This means that having healthy levels of vitamin D could protect patients against severe complications, including death, from COVID-19.”
      • “‘Our analysis shows that it might be as high as cutting the mortality rate in half,’ Backman said. ‘It will not prevent a patient from contracting the virus, but it may reduce complications and prevent death in those who are infected.’”
        • See entry May 9, also from Northwestern/Backman.  At that time, the team estimated a probability of a severe CV19 case at 17.3% for persons with vitamin D deficiency, and 14.6% for those without.  
    • Related: “Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study”
      • A summary cribbed from Instapundit: “Just under half (49.7%) of cases had normal vitamin D status, and only 4% of them died. Just over a quarter (27%) had insufficient vitamin D status, and most of them (88%) died. Just under a quarter (23%) had deficient vitamin D status, and almost all of them (99%) died.”  Yikes!
        • N=780. (Good sample size!)
        • The study calls anything over 30 ng/ml as normal Vitamin D, using the ‘25(OH)D’ measurement, a.k.a. 25-hydroxyvitamin D test.
        • 21-29: insufficient.
        • Below 20: deficient.
          • (Yes, ed. is aware that the authors did not specify what happens at 30 ng/ml and at 20 ng/ml.  Ed. hates that kind of mistake.)
          • Ed. opines: things are coming together.  In addition to younger people rebelling and therefore getting infected this summer, vitamin D levels naturally increase during the summer if one ventures outdoors.  Both lead to a drop in mortality and severe cases, which we are seeing.
          • Ed. opines: Only 388 of the 780 (49.7%) studied Indonesians had a value exceeding 30 ng/ml.  Therefore ed. is not going to assume that his is normal.  Also, The reference range of the total 25(OH)D level is 25-80 ng/ml.  So ed. will not assume that normal means greater than 30 ng/ml.
    • Ugh.  More bad news.  “Outcomes of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Patients Recently Recovered From Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)”
      • “Of the 100 included patients, 53 (53%) were male, and the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 49 (45-53) years. The median (IQR) time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and CMR was 71 (64-92) days. Of the 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19, 67 (67%) recovered at home, while 33 (33%) required hospitalization.”
      • “In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.”

    Jul. 30:
    • Why do CV19 patients lose their sense of smell?
      • “Originally, the researchers assumed that the virus attacks olfactory sensory neurons in the nose, ‘and damage[s] or kill[s] these neurons, and that’s how we lose our sense of smell,’ said Sandeep Robert Datta, lead author of the study and an associate professor of neurobiology at the Blavatnik Institute at Harvard Medical School.”
      • “However, in the new study—which was published Friday in Science Advances—the researchers found that those neurons were largely unaffected by the coronavirus, and that the virus ‘is not actually capable of attacking the neurons that live in your nose,’ Datta said.  According to the researchers, the coronavirus was not able to attack the olfactory sensory neurons because they are missing the ACE2 gene that enables the virus to enter human cells.”
      • “Instead, the researchers found that the coronavirus attacks two other types of cells that have the ACE2 gene and provide metabolic and structural support to the sensory neurons.”
        • “‘And so we think, on the whole, this is good news, and suggests that people who lose their sense of smell, for the most part, are going to go on to get their sense of smell back,’ Datta said. ‘But we need more data and a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms to confirm this conclusion.’”
    • “FDA opens door to rapid, at-home testing for COVID-19”
      • “Several testing experts, including Dan Larremore of the University of Colorado, said the FDA’s move is a step in the right direction and could encourage companies to pursue inexpensive, rapid, at-home tests.  But Dr. Michael Mina, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said the way the FDA’s guidance template is written makes it less likely that such crucial tests will reach the general public.”
    • “Some scientists are taking a DIY coronavirus vaccine, and nobody knows if it’s legal or if it works.”
      • “Among those who’ve taken the DIY vaccine is George Church, the celebrity geneticist at Harvard University, who took two doses a week apart earlier this month. The doses were dropped in his mailbox, and he mixed the ingredients himself.”
        • “Church says he has not stepped outside of his house in five months, but he believes the vaccine designed by Estep, his former graduate student at Harvard and one of his protégés, is extremely safe. ‘I think we are at much bigger risk from covid considering how many ways you can get it, and how highly variable the consequences are,’ he says. The US Centers for Disease Control recently reported that as many as one-third of patients who test positive for covid-19 but are never hospitalized battle symptoms for weeks or even months after contracting the virus. ‘I think that people are highly underestimating this disease,’ Church says.”
      • Lots of interesting reading at the link, including a good discussion of the way this possible vaccine is constructed, and how that differs from others.

    Aug. 4:
    • “Critically ill COVID-19 patients make quick recovery with treatment RLF-100”
      • “Critically ill COVID-19 patients recovered rapidly from respiratory failure after three days of treatment with RLF-100, a therapy granted fast-track designation in the United States, two drug companies said Sunday.”
      • “Geneva-based Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG RFLB.S has a patent for RLF-100, or aviptadil, a synthetic form of a natural peptide that protects the lung. US-Israeli NeuroRx Inc. partnered with Relief to develop the drug in the United States.”
    • “U.S. Daily Coronavirus Cases Inch Lower, Hitting About 45,000”
      • Ed. opines: Look, the second wave in the U.S. is embarrassing, but stop gaslighting us with this ‘inch lower’ crap.

    New cases per day, and same with seven-day average, U.S.
      • On the other hand, ed. is really not very happy with this trend:

    New deaths per day, and same with seven-day average, U.S.
    • “Health Experts Warn That Government Shutdowns Are Bringing Back ‘The Biggest Monster Of Them All’: Tuberculosis”
      • “India records over a quarter of the world’s tuberculosis cases. Diagnoses of the disease have dropped 75% since the start of the pandemic, threatening even greater spread of the disease as people are left untreated. Similar trends are being replicated in other countries such as China and Brazil.”
      • NY Times: “Tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people each year. Lockdowns and supply-chain disruptions threaten progress against the disease as well as H.I.V. and malaria.”
        • “Until this year, TB and its deadly allies, H.I.V. and malaria, were on the run. The toll from each disease over the previous decade was at its nadir in 2018, the last year for which data are available.  Yet now, as the coronavirus pandemic spreads around the world, consuming global health resources, these perennially neglected adversaries are making a comeback.”

    Aug. 6:
    • “HCQ, vitamin tablets help Mumbai cops beat Covid-19”
      • “According to senior police officials, the force managed to protect the health of its personnel by first asking those above the age of 55 and those with co-morbidities to stay at home. Members of the force who were deployed in sensitive areas like Dharavi, a major hotspot for the virus, were given hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic in addition to vitamins and zinc tablets.”
    • “Covid-19 Researchers Hope Monoclonal Antibody Treatments Are a Bridge to Vaccine”
      • The efforts of Scientist Conrad Chan are “one of a few dozen studies under way in the global push to develop monoclonal antibody therapies—drugs known as “mAbs” that can both prevent and fight infection. They are made by screening hundreds of thousands of antibodies found in the blood of recovered patients, isolating the most potent and engineering them into supercharged disease fighters.”
      • “By mid-June, he’d found them: five of the antibodies he believed would be best-suited to neutralize the pathogen that causes Covid-19.”
      • “Two drugmakers in the U.S., Eli Lilly and Regeneron, each are advancing mAbs in human trials, while others, mostly in Europe and Asia, are hot on their heels. Dr. Chan’s team at DSO National Laboratories in Singapore has cleared a major hurdle, which is finding the right antibodies.”
    • “As drug officials near a decision on the emergency use of convalescent plasma as a treatment for those infected with the virus, data from a large national study shows that hospitalized Covid-19 patients who received transfusions of blood plasma rich with antibodies reduced their mortality rate by about 50%.”
      • “Hospitalized Covid-19 patients who received transfusions of blood plasma rich with antibodies from recovered patients reduced their mortality rate by about 50%, according to researchers running a large national study.”
    • “California Coronavirus Update: Top Health Official Reveals State Has Been Underreporting New COVID-19 Cases; County Numbers Also Have ‘Discrepancies’.”
      • “On Tuesday, an unusual message was posted on the California state COVID-19 dashboard. It read, ‘Due to the issues with the state’s electronic laboratory system, these data represent an underreporting of actual positive cases in one single day.’ There was no further information or clarification.”
      • “A few hours later, the state’s top health official, Dr. Mark Ghaly, shed some light on the issue.  ‘Over the past few days — the state system — we’ve discovered some discrepancies,’ said Ghaly.  ‘We’re working hard and immediately to reach out to the labs that we work with to get accurate information in a manual process so that we can feed that to our county partners,’ he added, ‘so that we can validate and make sure that our numbers are accurate.’”
    • Here is a hugely rich thread (on Twitter - ugh) of controversial things to think about, well presented for your consideration.  Ed. will attempt to note some highlights.  But do yourself a favor and read the whole thread.
      • “HIT will vary place to place, but it’s going to be low and reachable.  It is the ONLY real option and always was.  And everyone knew this for a century.  Then we choked.”
      • W.H.O. says “that [COVID19] is so dangerous that we need to huddle in place or see mountains of dead.”
        • “Yet it did not happen in Sweden.  And it did not happen in the uncontrolled US northeast.  They hit herd immunity.  Look at Massachusetts.  This is a simple, uniform disease curve like any other disease burn out.” [emphasis: ed.]
      • “Forcing [COVID19] patients into nursing homes was a disaster everywhere it was tried.  Italy, Spain, Quebec, etc.”  Take out those deaths and the I.F.R. “looks like flu.”
      • “So the WHO is simply lying on every level here and they MUST know better. […] This is flat out mendacity.”
        • Ed. opines: what a thread full of potent arguments.  But all the same, ed. does not want to catch this bug.  It is a horrible, horrible thing for may people, and definitely not the flu.
    • “Covid-19 Vaccine Makers Signal Prices.”
      • “New details are emerging about how much drugmakers are charging for coronavirus vaccines, with prices spanning from several dollars a dose to more than $70 for a regimen.  Contracts with the U.S. and other governments that the companies announced Wednesday price the shots across a wide range, from $10 to $37 a dose. The latest deals follow previous agreements that cost the U.S. $4 a dose and up.”
    • “New COVID-19 cases in the United States have declined again by a few thousand, according to updated data Thursday by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.  After new cases spiked once again to nearly 60,000 on Tuesday, the figure declined to 52,800 on Wednesday, the updated data showed. Cases on Sunday and Monday were below 50,000 on both days.”
      • Ed. opines: Look, we’re over the hump.  There is a clear seven-day pattern of rising and falling case counts.  Intra-week reporting on those meaningless ups and downs is just fear-mongering.

    New cases per day, and same with seven-day average, U.S.
    • “Cancer diagnoses drop as many skip screening due to COVID-19.”
      • “There has been a 46% drop in the diagnoses of breast, colorectal, lung, pancreatic, gastric and esophageal cancers, researchers said.”
      • “But, ‘this decrease in diagnoses was unfortunately not the result of a drop in cancer rates,’ stressed Kaufman.”  
        • Because in this world, we actually have to say that.
        • Ed. opines: the excess mortality from our failed policies will feature for years into the future.
    • “Meth lab found at San Francisco hotel room used as city COVID-19 shelter.”
      • “The hotel is one of the many businesses that are contracting with San Francisco’s Shelter in Place program, which pays to provide rooms and meals for people who need to be quarantined, are at risk for COVID-19, or have no home.”
      • “The meth lab arrests raise questions about who qualifies for rooms, as many people remain out on the streets or on waiting lists for shelter.”
    • “Holland Stands Out as Only Country in Europe to Reject Masking.”  The source reporting is from the U.K. Daily Mail.
      • “The nation’s top scientists, having examined key data and research, have declared there is no firm evidence to back the use of face coverings. Indeed, they argue that wearing the wretched things may actually hamper the fight against disease.”
      • “‘Face masks in public places are not necessary, based on all the current evidence,’ said Coen Berends, spokesman for the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. ‘There is no benefit and there may even be negative impact.’”
      • “Holland’s position is based on assessments by the Outbreak Management Team, a group of experts advising the government. […] It believes they detract from a clear three-pronged message that has kept deaths from coronavirus down to less than half the rate in Britain: wash hands regularly, maintain social distancing of 1.5 metres and stay at home if suffering any symptoms.”
      •  “The one exception outside of the medical frontline has been on public transport, where masks are mandatory on the basis it is difficult to stay apart on crowded buses, ferries and trains. ‘We have seen this approach works,’ said Christian Hoebe, a professor of infectious diseases in Maastricht and member of the advisory team. ‘Face masks should not be seen as a magic bullet that halts the spread.’”
    • “Philippines had the harshest lockdown and most mask wearing. It didn’t work.”
      • “This nation of over 100 million holds the distinction of having undergone the longest and most severe lockdown. They also have the highest rate of mask wearing in the world, according to a recent survey.  Cases are surging because you can’t run or hide from a respiratory virus.”
      • “Their answer? A new lockdown – all the while missing the irony that the first series of totalitarian mandates didn’t work. Now they have a weakened and destitute population to face the virus, while countries like Sweden achieved de facto herd immunity from a position of strength.”
      • Ed. says: always look at the data when reading something like this.

    Philippines, U.S. new cases per day, seven-day average,
    normalized by population.
        • Ed. adds: while a country can quarantine itself at great cost, and perhaps hold the virus at bay, there is no end to that game.  It must be played indefinitely until such time as a vaccine is developed or the disease mutates to something less virulent.
    • Infographic: germs on a plane (from 2018).
      • Restrooms
      • Tray-tables
      • Aisle seats

    Aug. 7:
    • “Want to join a coronavirus vaccine trial? Consider these 5 things first.”
      1. How vaccine clinical trials works
      2. You can’t guarantee you’ll be in a test group
      3. You’ll get paid—but you’ll also face risks
      4. You may end up paying the costs for care if you have an adverse reaction
      5. How to enroll
    • “Why a coronavirus vaccine could be less effective for obese patients”
      • “Vaccines are less effective in obese adults than in adults with a lower body mass index (BMI), according to research, a disparity that will likely affect vaccines against the novel coronavirus, as well.”
      • “According to Varney, some scientists in the field of immunometabolism believe those heightened risks stem from obesity’s effects on a person’s immune response. She explains that, while a healthy immune system triggers on and off inflammation as needed, the immune systems in individuals who are obese tend to maintain a constant state of mild inflammation.”

    Aug. 12:
    • [Ed. apologizes but it is getting harder and harder to find new news to report on, and ed. is also really busy in real life.  Also, the climate of the U.S.A. is so toxic that ed. is being forced into a ‘fight-or-flight’ response that is not conducive to blogging.]
    • “Can asymptomatic patients spread coronavirus? Here’s what a new study reveals.”  From a study in Korea.
      • “Around 30% of patients who tested positive for the new coronavirus were asymptomatic, but they still carried just as much of the virus as symptomatic patients—and for nearly as long—according to a new study that experts say provides the first scientific evidence of asymptomatic transmission of the pathogen.”
      • So there you, asymptomatic and care-free, and you are as infectious as the sickest person around.  And you have no idea.
    • “Covid-19: only half of Britons would definitely have vaccination.”  
      • “Survey sparks concern over misconceptions about vaccines and scepticism about science.”
      • “Only half the population of Britain definitely would accept being vaccinated against Covid-19. That is the shock conclusion of a group of scientists and pollsters who have found that only 53% of a test group of citizens said they would be certain or very likely to allow themselves to be given a vaccine against the disease if one becomes available.”  
        • “By contrast, one in six (16%) said they would definitely not or would be unlikely to accept a vaccine, according to research by King’s College London and Ipsos Mori.”
        • Ed. asks: What is it about advanced civilizations that creates these regressive people?  Oh, wait, it’s the education system, dummy.
    • Heterogeneity: “The Good (But Not Great) News About T-Cells and Herd Immunity.”
      • “What first looked like a simple respiratory disease produced, over time, disorientingly diverse damage — in lungs, in hearts, in brains.  Scientists are familiar with this kind of variation; they often call it “heterogeneity.” And perhaps the strangest aspect of it, to a novice observer trying to piece together an understanding of the disease from the sidelines, is that most of them aren’t really surprised by it.”
      • “The first [area of interest] is how the heterogeneity of the disease spread affects the threshold of herd immunity.”
        • “Later, in an interview with UnHerd, a sort of Intellectual Dark Web magazine devoted to ‘free thinking’ in science, Friston suggested that the truly susceptible portion of the population was certainly not 100 percent, as most modelers and conventional wisdom had it, but a much smaller share — surely below 50 percent, he said, and likely closer to about 20 percent. The analysis was ongoing, he said, but ‘I suspect, once this has been done, it will look like the effective non-susceptible portion of the population will be about 80%. I think that’s what’s going to happen.’” [Emph.: ed.]
        • “The ‘dark matter’ line was widely derided by epidemiologists, who didn’t seem to think there was anything mysterious or inexplicable about the divergent experiences of various countries or communities. And in recent weeks, a raft of papers modeling herd immunity dynamics given heterogeneous disease spread have been found similarly wanting — epidemiologists describing them as being too abstract, built on almost arbitrary assumptions about the population dynamics of COVID-19, rather than assessments of how the disease was actually spreading in the real world. Indeed, last week one of the leading modelers, Gabriela Gomes, suggested the entire area of research was being effectively blackballed out of fear it might encourage a relaxation of pandemic vigilance. ‘This is the very sad reason for the absence of more optimistic projections on the development of this pandemic in the scientific literature,’ she wrote on Twitter. ‘Our analysis suggests that herd immunity thresholds are being achieved despite strict social distancing measures.’”  [Emph.: ed.] 
      • “The second is how the heterogeneity of the immune response affects disease outcomes across a population: who gets mildly sick, who gets very sick, who recovers, and who dies.”
        • “The most optimistic interpretation of the data was given to me by Francois Balloux, a somewhat contrarian disease geneticist and the director of the University College of London’s Genetics Institute.”
        • “According to him, a cross-reactive T-cell response wouldn’t prevent infection, but would probably mean a faster immune response, a shorter period of infection, and a ‘massively’ reduced risk of severe illness — meaning, he guessed, that somewhere between a third and three-quarters of the population carried into the epidemic significant protection against its scariest outcomes. He told me that he believed the distribution of this T-cell response could explain at least some, and perhaps quite a lot, of COVID-19’s age skew when it comes to disease severity and mortality, since the young are the most exposed to other coronaviruses, and the protection tapers as you get older and spend less time in environments, like schools, where these viruses spread so promiscuously.”
          • Ed. wonders: what if the way out of this is to deliberately get everyone sick with the right common cold?
    • Related: “People were immune to Covid-19 before it existed: Study.”
      • “Founding director of Yale University’s Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, Dr David L Katz, told CNN in an interview that it is excellent news at the population level.  ‘We have had indications for this from a long time that many people may not be prone to get this particular virus at all because they have partial native resistance likely due to prior coronavirus exposures,’ he said.”
        • Ed. wonders: what if the way out of this is to deliberately get everyone sick with the right common cold?
    • Related: “Common Colds May Have ‘Primed’ Some People’s Immune Systems For COVID-19”
      • “According to a study published Tuesday, some people who’ve never been exposed to the new coronavirus may nonetheless have T cells that react to it. Scientists think that’s because those cells previously learned how to identify and fight coronaviruses that cause common colds.”
        • Ed. wonders: what if the way out of this is to deliberately get everyone sick with the right common cold?
    • “Rare syndrome linked to COVID-19 found in nearly 600 U.S. children: CDC.”
      • “Nearly 600 children were admitted to U.S. hospitals with a rare inflammatory syndrome associated with the novel coronavirus over four months during the peak of the pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a report on Friday.  Multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) is a rare but severe condition that shares symptoms with toxic shock and Kawasaki disease, including fever, rashes, swollen glands and, in severe cases, heart inflammation.  It has been reported in children and adolescent patients about two to four weeks after the onset of COVID-19.”
      • Ed reported this tangentially on Jul. 27.  The link provided at that time is here.
    • “Why New Zealand’s coronavirus strategy was doomed to fail.”
      • “New Zealand has had its first coronavirus cases in more than 100 days and Auckland is back under lockdown. It’s proof that you can’t eliminate COVID-19, you have to learn to live with it.”
        • The article is paywalled and ed. cannot get to it.  Ed. links to it only to point out that -- at last -- others are noting that attempting to isolate a community away from a virus is a never-ending battle that one will ultimately lose, and the battle extracts a tremendous cost.  
        • Before ed. left Facebook, he endured a plethora of acquaintances extolling the virtues of (female) P.M. Jacinda Ardern.  Her gender and her wisdom (convincing an island nation to cut itself off from the world) were offered as the existence proof for ridding the world of male leaders.  Ed. is not kidding.  Now five months later, New Zealand is exactly where it was in March, stuck in a time warp, waiting for someone or something to rescue it.
        • Please see entries Apr. 30 and Jun. 17.
    • “Israeli study finds efficacy in using cannabis terpenes to treat COVID-19.”
      • “The initial results from an Israeli in vivo study testing the benefits of using cannabis terpenes to treat inflammatory infections, such as COVID-19, have been quite promising.  The fledgling study, being carried out by Israeli cannabis research and development firms Eybna and CannaSoul, is centered around examining the effectiveness of the use of a unique cannabis terpene formulation - NT-VRL - with respect to treating inflammatory conditions such as cytokine storm syndrome, which commonly occurs in serious cases of COVID-19.”
    • “Population immunity is slowing down the pandemic in parts of the US.”
      • “Millions of US residents have been infected by the virus that causes covid-19, and at least 160,000 are dead. One effect is that the pool of susceptible individuals has been depleted in many areas. After infection, it’s believed, people become immune (at least for months), so they don’t transmit the virus to others. This slows the pandemic down.”
      • “‘I believe the substantial epidemics in Arizona, Florida and Texas will leave enough immunity to assist in keeping COVID-19 controlled,’ Trevor Bedford, a pandemic analyst at the University of Washington, said on Friday, in a series of tweets. ‘However, this level of immunity is not compatible with a full return to societal behavior as existed before the pandemic.’”
    • New York State’s corona nursing home deaths under-counted by thousands.
      • The A.P. article is “New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy.”
        • “Riverdale Nursing Home in the Bronx appears, on paper, to have escaped the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, with an official state count of just four deaths in its 146-bed facility.  The truth, according to the home, is far worse: 21 dead, most transported to hospitals before they succumbed.”
        • “New York’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes, already among the highest in the nation, could actually be a significant undercount. Unlike every other state with major outbreaks, New York only counts residents who died on nursing home property and not those who were transported to hospitals and died there. That statistic could add thousands to the state’s official care home death toll of just over 6,600.” 
        • “But so far the administration of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo has refused to divulge the number, leading to speculation the state is manipulating the figures to make it appear it is doing a better than other states and to make a tragic situation less dire.”
        • “Nearly every time Cuomo is questioned about New York’s nursing home death toll, he brushes off criticism as politically motivated and notes that his state’s percentage of nursing home deaths out of its overall COVID-19 death toll is around 20%, far less than Pennsylvania’s 68%, Massachusetts’ 64% and New Jersey’s 44%.”
    • Related: “Cuomo rejects independent investigation of nursing home coronavirus deaths as political.”
    • The Lancet: “Vitamin D for COVID-19: a case to answer?”
      • “The striking overlap between risk factors for severe COVID-19 and vitamin D deficiency, including obesity, older age, and Black or Asian ethnic origin, has led some researchers to hypothesise that vitamin D supplementation could hold promise as a preventive or therapeutic agent for COVID-19.”
    • “Dr. Scott Atlas Joins Coronavirus Task Force.”
      • Dr. Atlas has be critical of lockdown policy.  The article has a good summary of his recent statements and views.
      • Search for Atlas to find several entries in this blog.
    • Sky News Australia: “COVID-19 treatments are ‘staring at us in the face’ but have been ignored.” This is a YouTube video of some seven minutes.
      • “Mr Smith pointed to a treatment for coronavirus which has already been tested on patients with close to 90-100 per cent success rate involving a concoction of three drugs: Ivermectin, Doxy-Cycline, and Zinc.”
      • “The Australian government says that additional clinical trials are necessary. This reporter notes that we ordered world-wide shutdowns without clinical trials and in fact with no science whatsoever demonstrating their effectiveness, but the minute you mention HCQ, we cannot do anything without years of rigorous double-blind clinical studies.”
      • Ed. opines: you can’t get rich on that.

    Aug. 13:
    • “Employees need masks even for at-home Zoom calls, Wisconsin agency says. Here’s why.”
      • The purported ‘why’ is to set a good example.
      • The actual ‘why’ is that a Mr. Preston Cole, Head of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, thinks people are so stupid that they will not mock this, but learn from it.
        • Go forth and mock.
    • From ed.’s Wall Street Journal “The 10-Point” email blast this morning:
      • “Coronavirus cases in the U.S. climbed to a four-day high of nearly 56,000, breaking a downward trend that culminated Tuesday when the U.S. reported 46,800 new cases, its lowest new daily tally since Aug. 3. The virus appears to be taking hold in some corners of Midwestern states that had largely escaped it. Cases are spreading more rapidly in some counties outside a metro area, compared with those in one, occurring through community contacts. That trend is worrying to health officials because such transmission is harder to trace and contain.”
        • Awful, disingenuous WSJ!  As readers of this blog know, the pattern is weekly.  If reporters (and they are Allison Prang and David Hall) say a two-day downward trend has been broken, we must ask:
          • How many of these reporters’ readers are so stupid as to be caused to worry by their bleats?
          • Why are these reporter working to mislead and hence worry their readers?  What is these reporters’ motive for trumpeting the normal weekly cycle as ‘breaking a downward trend’?

    Daily new cases, with seven-day trailing average
    >overlaid.  Ed. has taken the trouble to label
    the weekday names for several troughs,
    but hovering over and datapoint at the source
    (91-DIVOC) will also reveal the day of the week.
      • We do see a flattening of the downward trend.  Why?  Leading the change are (and here we must not used counts normalize by population, since large counts from large states ultimately drive the U.S. numbers that WSJ is bleating about):
        • California (and we know California is just realizing they don’t count cases well at all)
        • Florida, with a slight uptick off a steep three-week decline
        • Illinois, steadily rising for the past 50 days
        • Missouri, with a slight uptick off a shallow 10-day decline
        • Virginia, with a tiny uptick off a very flat past 28 days
    • “‘Covid fog’: The latest emerging, long-term symptom of Covid-19.”
      • “Up to one-third of people who had Covid-19 report lingering neurological and psychological symptoms due to the disease, ranging from numb limbs to a mental slowness some people are calling ‘Covid fog’—a finding that ‘reflect[s] a growing consensus that the disease can have lasting impact on the brain,’ Elizabeth Cooney reports for STAT News.”
      • “[D]octors have started putting some pieces together, Cooney writes. They think, for instance, that the new coronavirus damages the brain and nervous symptom through inflammation, not through a direct attack on those systems.”
      • “Some physicians have voiced concerns about the long-term outlook for individuals who were infected with the coronavirus and are experiencing these symptoms.”

    Aug. 14:
      • And if you are wondering why the New York Times is allowing the U.S. data to be shown in a favorable light, well, they hate the U.K. almost as much as they hate the U.S.
    • But what all that economic damage worth it? Was locking down harder worth it? Here is the same data plotted also against deaths as a proportion of the population.


      • Now ed. is no economist, but it sure looks like economic severity is inversely correlated with death. [Update Aug. 16: ed.’s friend, who is an economist, corrects ed. and point out that negative numbers in the G.D.P. column are related to positive numbers for degree of lock-down. So while the decline in G.D.P. is inversely correlated with deaths, degree of lock-down is positively correlated with deaths per million persons. Thanks!]
        • Of course, the U.S. is really 10 or 15 European-sized countries.  Ed. wonders what the plot would look like if we had data for NY-NJ-PA-CT, and for the Southeast, and for the Sun Best, and for the Midwest, etc., since each region responded uniquely.
    • “USC scientists uncover likely order of COVID-19 symptoms.”
      • “Knowing the order of COVID-19’s symptoms may help patients seek care promptly or decide sooner than later to self isolate, according to scientists at the USC Michelson Center for Convergent Bioscience.”
      • “USC conducted a study that found infected people will likely first experience fever. That will be followed by cough and muscle pain, and then nausea, and/or vomiting, and diarrhea.”
    • “Doctors can examine COVID-19 patients’ blood to identify those at greatest risk of severe illness and to pinpoint those most likely to need a ventilator, new research from the University of Virginia School of Medicine suggests.”
      • “The UVA scientists found that the levels of a particular cytokine in the blood upon diagnosis could be used to predict later outcomes. Cytokines – proteins produced by immune cells – are responsible for severe overreactions by the immune system, known as cytokine storms, associated with COVID-19 and other serious illnesses.”
      • “[T]he best predictor of COVID-19 outcomes was an ‘underappreciated’ cytokine more associated with allergies, the UVA researchers report. High levels of that cytokine, IL-13, were associated with worsened COVID-19 outcomes regardless of patients’ gender, age or other health problems.”
      • “In addition, the researchers found that levels of two other cytokines were significantly higher in patients with elevated blood sugar. This ‘pro-inflammatory response,’ they say, may help explain why diabetes is associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. In short, the body is primed to respond too strongly to the infection.”
    • Also from ed.’s alma mater: “Big data analytics shows how America’s individualism complicates coronavirus response.”
      • First, let’s get something out of the way.  A country cannot possess individualism.  That’s just silly.  They meant to write Americans’ individualism.  Boo!
      • The researchers gathered data “county-by-county to track levels of individualism – measured by the amount of time each locality spent on the American frontier from 1790 to 1890 – and correlate individualism to social distancing compliance and COVID-19-related crowdfunding.”
      • “Time spent on the frontier, where independence and self-reliance were essential for survival, is widely accepted in social science as an indicator of individualism. Settlers needed independence and self-reliance to survive. People with those traits self-selected to migrate to the frontier, survived, and ultimately passed those traits to the next generation.  Now, that individualism, passed down culturally for at least 130 years, is complicating local responses to the pandemic.”
      • “Even after controlling for variables like political ideology, social capital or population density, the researchers found that higher local levels of individualism reduced compliance with state lockdown orders by 41% and reduced pandemic-related fundraising by 48%.”
        • What a strange study!
    • Everybody gets to use Sweden to say whatever they want.
      • And again from ed.’s alma mater: “Lack of COVID-19 lockdown increased ceaths in Sweden, analysis concludes.”
        • Despite the negative headline, the article states, “But Sweden fared better than would be expected from its public health mandates alone, roughly similar to France, Italy and Spain – countries that imposed more stringent measures, but adopted them after the pandemic took hold there.”
        • “Sweden’s unusual approach also saw fewer patients admitted to intensive-care units than expected.”
        • The article then goes on to cite statistics for deaths for Sweden and neighboring countries on May 15.  
          • This makes ed. nuts!  As readers are probably tired of hearing, Sweden is playing the long game.  They have very likely reached herd immunity.  if so, their deaths are going to dry up.  All other countries are still playing the second wave game.
      • Leading with the choice of the verb ‘blunder’, Reason writes: “Did Sweden Accidentally Blunder into COVID-19 Herd Immunity?”
        • “At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Swedish government’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, denied that his relatively permissive approach to controlling the spread of the coronavirus was aimed at achieving herd immunity.”
          • The "denied" link goes to Vox, which writes: “Swedish officials, and particularly chief state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, argue theirs is the right way forward. ‘Locking people up at home won’t work in the longer term. Sooner or later people are going to go out anyway,’ Tegnell told reporters recently. He’s also repeatedly said it would be good for the Swedish population to gain immunity to the disease, though he’s flatly denied purposely seeking ‘herd immunity.’”
        • Back to Reason: “While not explicitly adopting disease-induced herd immunity as a policy goal, Swedish public health authorities evidently expected the coronavirus to run quickly through the country’s population while not overwhelming its health care system. If a high enough percentage of Swedes became infected and recovered, then herd immunity would forestall a second wave of the disease.”
          • “Yet a May study of blood tests in Stockholm found that only 7.3 percent of the city’s residents had produced antibodies in response to being infected by the coronavirus. This suggested that country was still far from that 60 to 70 percent threshold.”
          • Readers of this blog will recall that the 60 to 70 percent threshold does not stand up to scrutiny.
          • Readers of this blog will recall that there is more to immunity than antibodies.  T cells play a huge role.  See Jun. 30, Jul 8, 13, 16, 24, 28, and Aug. 6.
          • The author at Reason, one Ronald Bailey, blundered his way into a poor article.

    Aug. 17:
    • “FDA authorizes open-source, saliva-based COVID-19 test.”
      • “The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization Saturday to the Yale School of Public Health for an open source, saliva-based COVID-19 test that uses commercially available equipment.  According to the FDA, the test uses a new method of processing saliva samples. It also doesn’t require any type of special collection swab, and samples can be placed in any sterile container.”
      • “In addition to eliminating the need for nasal swabs, which have been in short supply, saliva-based tests are more comfortable to administer -- and can be collected by the person being tested in a supervised environment, reducing the possible risk to healthcare professionals.  The test also does not require a separate nucleic acid extraction step -- which matters because the extraction kits used for that step have been subject to recent shortages.”
      • “Yale plans to provide the Saliva Direct protocol to interested laboratories as an "open-source" protocol, the FDA said.  That means participating labs don’t need to pay for proprietary equipment or instructions to perform COVID-19 testing, and can instead use commercially available equipment using instructions from Yale.”
    • “WHO: Avoid dental cleanings and other routine visits to the dentist for now.”
      • The official document is here, but the gist is obvious.
    • “Covid-19 Deaths Skew Younger Among Minorities.”
      • “Among people in the U.S. who died between their mid-40s and mid-70s since the pandemic began, the virus is responsible for about 9% of deaths. For Latino people who died in that age range, the virus has killed nearly 25%, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of death-certificate data collected by federal authorities.”
      • “Minorities in the U.S. are more likely to die at a younger age than white people from Covid-19. Just 3% of white people who die are under 55, but 8% of Asians, 11% of Black people, 18% of Latinos and 24% of American Indians are under that age.”
      • “This is especially the case for Latino people, in part because their high representation in jobs ranging from health aides to meatpacking have made it harder for some of them to dodge the virus, and because many have poorer access to care, according to public-health experts.”
      • “‘What we know is Latinos are over-represented in low-wage occupations, essential occupations from farm working to meatpacking to the service sector to restaurants and grocery stores,’ said Jeffrey Reynoso, executive director at the Latino Coalition for a Healthy California.”
        • Ed. opines: it is tempting but very likely incorrect to assign all this difference to societal disparities.  We know, for example, that different amounts of vitamin D are highly correlated with race, regardless of economics.
    • Ed. cannot get this graph out of his mind.

    New cases, seven-day average (dark line) and
    new deaths, seven-day average (lighter dots).
    Source: 91-DIVOC.
      • Is the stark disparity due mostly to killing lots of old people in nursing homes (NY, NJ, PA, others) during the first wave?  Or to sunlight and vitamin D in the second?  Or to lock-down pushback and mob protests among younger people in the second wave?  We may never know.  And for sure, the press has no interest in finding out.
    • “The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer deaths due to delays in diagnosis in England, UK: a national, population-based, modelling study.”
      • “We collected data for 32 583 patients with breast cancer, 24 975 with colorectal cancer, 6744 with oesophageal cancer, and 29 305 with lung cancer. Across the three different scenarios, compared with pre-pandemic figures, we estimate a 7·9–9·6% increase in the number of deaths due to breast cancer up to year 5 after diagnosis, corresponding to between 281 (95% CI 266–295) and 344 (329–358) additional deaths. For colorectal cancer, we estimate 1445 (1392–1591) to 1563 (1534–1592) additional deaths, a 15·3–16·6% increase; for lung cancer, 1235 (1220–1254) to 1372 (1343–1401) additional deaths, a 4·8–5·3% increase; and for oesophageal cancer, 330 (324–335) to 342 (336–348) additional deaths, 5·8–6·0% increase up to 5 years after diagnosis. For these four tumour types, these data correspond with 3291–3621 additional deaths across the scenarios within 5 years. The total additional YLLs across these cancers is estimated to be 59,204 – 63,229 years.”
      • “Interpretation: Substantial increases in the number of avoidable cancer deaths in England are to be expected as a result of diagnostic delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Urgent policy interventions are necessary, particularly the need to manage the backlog within routine diagnostic services to mitigate the expected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with cancer.” [Emph: ed.]
    • “Do Americans Face Greater Mental Health and Economic Consequences from COVID-19? Comparing the U.S. with Other High-Income Countries.”
      • “To examine the early impact of the pandemic on the well-being of adults in the U.S. and abroad, the Commonwealth Fund joined the survey research firm SSRS to interview 8,259 adults age 18 and older between March and May 2020. It is the latest in the Commonwealth Fund’s series of cross-national comparisons featuring the United States and nine other high-income countries that participate in the Fund’s annual International Health Policy Survey.”
      • Some select results, but please do go and read the whole thing and decide for yourself.





    Aug. 20:
    • Here goes Europe for Round Two.

    Aug. 23:
    • “Pfizer, BioNTech: COVID-19 vaccine on track for review in October.”
      • “U.S. drugmaker Pfizer and partner BioNTech say their COVID-19 vaccine candidate is on track for regulatory review as soon as October, if it continues to provide positive results. A pivotal Phase 2/3 global study for the potential vaccine with as many as 30,000 participants is now underway.”
      • “‘BNT162b2 remains under clinical study and is not currently approved for distribution anywhere in the world. Assuming clinical success, Pfizer and BioNTech are on track to seek regulatory review for BNT162b2 as early as October 2020,’ they said in a statement. ‘If regulatory authorization or approval is obtained, [we] currently plan to supply up to 100 million doses worldwide by the end of 2020 and approximately 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021.’”
    • “Study: Remdesivir doesn’t boost outcomes in moderate pneumonia from COVID-19.”
      • “Remdesivir does not improve clinical outcomes in people hospitalized with moderate pneumonia from COVID-19, a study published Friday by JAMA Network Open found. Patients given a 10-day course of the antiviral drug fared no better than those who didn’t receive it, and were just as likely to die, the data showed.”
      • “A study published by the New England Journal of Medicine found that seriously ill patients infected with the new coronavirus had an average recovery time of 11 days after receiving the drug, compared to 15 days for those given a placebo.”
    • “Ignorance About Covid-19 Risk Is ‘Nothing Short of Stunning,’ Research Report Says; Huge Age Variance.”
      • “On average, Americans believe that people aged 55 and older account for just over half of total COVID-19 deaths; the actual figure is 92%.”
      • “Americans believe that people aged 44 and younger account for about 30% of total deaths; the actual figure is 2.7%.”
      • “Americans overestimate the risk of death from COVID-19 for people aged 24 and younger by a factor of 50; and they think the risk for people aged 65 and older is half of what it actually is (40% vs 80%).” [Note the percentages are percentage of total deaths, not likelihood of outcome equaling death.
      • Ed. opines: Who cares? Being able to quote statistics about the relative mix of fatality rates is, to ed.’s mind, much less important than having a good idea about the absolute rates for those who are ‘like’ you or ‘like’ your loved ones. Said another way, if person X believes that the rate of death for someone aged 20 is 0.05% and for aged 55+ is 0.35%, she is not wildly wrong, but her mix of total deaths by age will look wildly wrong.
    • Maybe you’ve heard about “Pooled Testing”. What is it?
      • “The technique, which has long been used to screen blood donations for the presence of HIV or hepatitis, is expected to markedly increase the testing capacity of the Stanford Clinical Virology Laboratory, which is now able to process about 4,500 tests per day. Not every sample qualifies for pool testing, however. It works best for screening populations in which most samples are expected to be negative, rather than groups with many infected people.”
      • “‘Pooled testing is most useful when routine, repeat testing is needed in congregate living areas such as skilled nursing facilities or dormitories,’ said Christina Kong, MD, chief of pathology for Stanford Health Care and professor of pathology at the medical school. ‘It’s also likely to be helpful as people plan how best to return to work or resume school. Moving ahead with pooled testing will greatly increase our capacity to take on this kind of testing in the Bay Area to quickly identify an emerging outbreak.’”

    Aug. 24:
    • “NFL has 77 apparently false positive COVID-19 tests from lab.”
      • “The NFL had 77 positive COVID-19 tests from 11 teams re-examined by a New Jersey lab after false positives, and all those tests came back negative. … There are five labs nationwide that service the 32 teams, with only the New Jersey facility having the false positives this weekend.”
    • “FDA grants emergency authorization for use of convalescent plasma to treat CV19 patients.”
      • Ed. invites readers to sample the spin: 
        • The Washington Post, which spills copious ink on HCQ reminding us of there lie that HCQ never worked.
        • The Times of Israel, which has a more balanced approach while still pointing out the link between the announcement and the RNC, and cautioning readers about early results.
    • “Researchers are now studying vacuolin-1 and apilimod, two similar drugs that might be able to block the novel coronavirus from infecting cells.”
      • “The drugs aren’t brand new, Harvard Medical School explains. But they’ve been repurposed for treating COVID-19.  Vacuolin-1 and apilimod were developed years ago and they target an enzyme called PIKfyve kinase. This enzyme has a role in the COVID-19 infection, which is why the drugs might work.”
      • “Separately, a paper in Nature published a list of 12,000 clinical-stage or FDA-approved small molecules that could inhibit the replication of the novel coronavirus. Apilimod was one of the drugs included on that list.”
      • And this gem: “Scientists from all over the world have come up with all sorts of ways to fight the novel coronavirus, targeting the pathogen with various existing drugs and new compounds in an attempt to prevent it from infecting cells. Some of these drugs failed in key tests, with hydroxychloroquine being the most prominent failure so far.” [emph: ed.]  
        • How many more people must die on this political altar?
    • Related: “New York hospitals will trial using antibodies to treat coronavirus cases.”  From Mar. 28.
    • Related: Everything old is new again!  See previous posts in this blog: 
      • Apr. 8: S. Korea starts trials of plasma transfers. “Severance Hospital in Seoul said Tuesday that, so far, its test of treating two critically ill patients with the blood plasma of CV19 survivors succeeded.”
      • Apr. 8 also: Convalescent therapy is 10-and-0 with 10 KOs. “All symptoms in the 10 patients, especially fever, cough, shortness of breath, and chest pain, disappeared or largely improved within 1 d to 3 d upon CP transfusion.”
      • Jul. 13: “Doctors treated Hill with convalescent plasma, which is derived from people who’ve recovered from Covid-19 and is being tested as a potential treatment for the disease. However, according to [Hill’s adoptive mother Donna] Hendrix, Hill received the experimental treatment only after she mentioned it to his providers. Hendrix said she as if Hill’s treatment was ‘being made up as [clinicians] went along.’”
      • Aug. 6: “As drug officials near a decision on the emergency use of convalescent plasma as a treatment for those infected with the virus, data from a large national study shows that hospitalized Covid-19 patients who received transfusions of blood plasma rich with antibodies reduced their mortality rate by about 50%.
    • The Wall Street Journal: “The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.  Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost.”
      • Low and behold, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden.

    Aug. 25:
    • “By March, The US Counted 1,500 COVID-19 Cases. Scientists Say We’d Missed 100,000 More.”
      • “According to new estimates, almost 109,000 people in the US might actually have been infected by 12 March, at which point only 1,514 reported cases of local transmission had been reported.”
        • From the paper: “The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the United States through 12 March, we estimated that 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310) infections occurred in the United States by this date.”
        • Ed. is not convinced that this methodology is acceptable.  Note the estimate’s error band is from one thousand to 14 million.  
        • Ed. is also not sure why such an analysis should be done.  Even if the imputed number is reliable, is it useful?
    • Double jeopardy: “Hong Kong man was reinfected by the coronavirus, researchers say.”
      • “A man in Hong Kong has become the first confirmed patient to be infected with the coronavirus a second time, according to researchers at the University of Hong Kong.”
      • “The finding suggests that some patients who recover from COVID-19 may have only short-lived immunity to reinfection.”
      • The article quotes a pair of tweets from Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at Yale University: 
        • “This is no cause for alarm - this is a textbook example of how immunity should work.”
        • “Second infection was asymptomatic. While immunity was not enough to block reinfection, it protected the person from disease.”
      • Contrast these tweets with the image NBC News decided to use to introduce the story:
    • Double jeopardy two-fer: “Cases of COVID-19 reinfection in Netherlands, Belgium, national broadcaster reports.”
      • “Two European patients are confirmed to have been reinfected with the coronavirus, according to regional public broadcasters, raising concerns about people’s immunity to the virus as the world struggles to tame the pandemic.”
    • check-in:
      • We can now say that the total impact of COVID-19 and its attendant policy disasters greatly outstrips a normal flu season.
      • We can also agree that it is not the black plague, either.

    Aug. 27:
    • “Lockdowns and Mask Mandates Do Not Lead to Reduced COVID Transmission Rates or Deaths, New Study Suggests.”
      • “A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper by Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha focused on countries and U.S. states with more than 1,000 COVID deaths as of late July. In all, the study included 25 U.S. states and 23 countries.”
      • “Based on their analysis, the authors present four ‘Stylized Facts’ about COVID-19, which are:
        1. “Once a region reaches 25 total COVID deaths, within a month the growth rate in deaths per day falls to approximately zero. In other words, no matter the country or state and its policies, deaths per day stop increasing within 20-30 days of passing a threshold of 25 deaths.
        2. “Once that happens, deaths per day either begin to fall or the trend remains flat.
        3. “The variability in death trends across regions has fallen sharply since the beginning of the epidemic and remains low. All states studied, all countries studied, have become more similar in their trends and have remained so.
        4. “Observations 1-3 suggest that the effective reproduction number, R, has hovered around one worldwide after the first 30 days of the epidemic.”
      • “This study runs counter to previous studies claiming that NPIs were effective in reducing transmission rates during the early stages of the epidemic. The authors explain:  ‘Given the observation that transmission rates for COVID-19 fell virtually everywhere in the world during this early pandemic period, we are concerned that these studies may substantially overstate the role of government-mandated NPIs in reducing disease transmission due to an omitted variable bias.’”
      • “One of the key candidates for the key ‘omitted variable,’ i.e., the true cause of the decline in transmission rates after the first month of an epidemic, is that human interaction does not conform to simple epidemiological models. In the real world human social networks overlap in such a way that a virus can spread rapidly for a short period of time, as some people contact more networks than others, but reaches natural dead-ends and roundabouts where potential new hosts in a ‘new’ social network have already been exposed through other networks. The effect can resemble what some think of as ‘herd immunity,’ but at relatively low infection rates.”
      • Ed. reminds readers of a “hugely rich thread (on Twitter - ugh) of controversial things to think about,” posted Aug. 6.  Included then:
      • Ed. opines: This is all well and good (and ed. agrees with the methodology and the conclusion). But, it is only helpful on the macro, statistical level. None of us puny humans live or die statistically. We live or die based on an experiment run once, with a sample size of one. As long as there is any path for the virus to get to ed., ed. is going to be a paranoid loser wearing a mask and looking suspiciously at people. Why? Because CV19 is a ‘Gruesome Magic 8-Ball of Death’. If ed. catches this bug, either ed. will recover completely, or his heart and brain will be permanently damaged, or he’ll die. Ed. has no idea what the outcome would be, and that’s an unacceptable risk.
    • “Abbott’s $5 Covid-19 Rapid Antigen Test Gets Emergency-Use Status From FDA.  New test is about the size of a credit card and returns results in 15 minutes.”
      • “The low-cost, rapid-response test could be administered in a doctor’s or school nurse’s office and uses technology similar to home pregnancy tests. It returns results in about 15 minutes.”
      • “Abbott said Wednesday it plans to ship tens of millions of the newly authorized tests in September, with plans to increase production to 50 million tests in October. If the company is able to do so, the October total would amount to roughly double the number of tests performed in the U.S. in July.”
      • It still requires a nasal swab sample taken by a health care professional (including, for example, a school nurse or pharmacist).
    • “CDC’s new guidelines call for less coronavirus testing. That could be ‘dangerous,’ some experts say.”
      • Less testing?
      • The article is basically a synopsis of a New York Times article behind a paywall.  The Times article is here.
      • “CDC on Monday updated its guidelines to exclude people who do not show symptoms of Covid-19 from its coronavirus testing recommendations, even if they’ve been exposed to someone with a known coronavirus infection.  According to the [New York] Times, CDC’s guidelines previously recommended coronavirus testing ‘for all close contacts’ of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus, irrespective of whether those contacts were showing symptoms of Covid-19. CDC in the guidelines had noted that ‘the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission’ is a critical component in the novel coronavirus’ spread, the Times reports.”
      • “Public health experts were quick to lambast CDC’s updated recommendations, citing the importance of detecting coronavirus infections before the onset of Covid-19 symptoms to help contain the pathogen. Specifically, experts pointed to research suggesting that many people who transmit the virus to others do so before they start developing symptoms of Covid-19, as the virus appears to be most contagious during that time, the Times reports. Further, CDC has estimated that about 40% of people infected with the coronavirus may never experience symptoms of Covid-19, though they still may spread the virus to others.”
      • Justification?  “According to the Times, an HHS spokesperson said CDC did not update the guidelines in response to coronavirus testing or capacity shortages. ‘Testing capacity has massively expanded, and we are not utilizing the full capacity that we have developed,’ the spokesperson reportedly told the Times. ‘We revised the guidance to reflect current evidence and the best public health interventions.’”
    • “DOJ Seeks COVID-19 Data From Cuomo, Other Governors, In Review Of Nursing Home Policies.”
      • “‘New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan required nursing homes to admit COVID-19 patients to their vulnerable populations, often without adequate testing,’ the Justice Department said in a statement on Wednesday.”
      • “Led by Assistant Attorney General Eric Dreiband, the civil rights division will make the request for nursing home data from the governors as it considers whether to open an investigation under the ‘Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act.’  ‘The Civil Rights Division seeks to determine if the state orders requiring admission of COVID-19 patients to nursing homes is responsible for the deaths of nursing home residents,’ Dreiband said.”

    Aug. 28:
    • “Covid-19 is becoming less deadly in Europe but we don't know why.”
    • But why?
      • “Covid-19 is known to be less risky the younger you are, so the changing demographic of those being infected could be one plausible reason that the disease currently seems less deadly. Yet Oke doesn’t think the change in age distribution alone is enough to account for what is happening. There are still a lot of older people testing positive, he says.”
      • “Several researchers have told New Scientist that the other main possible explanation is that cases are being treated more effectively in hospitals.”
      • “The jury is out on whether one variant of the coronavirus, known as D614G, explains why covid-19 is becoming less deadly. Paul Tambyah at the National University of Singapore told Reuters that the rise of the D614G mutation had coincided with drops in death rates in some countries, suggesting that it might be ‘more infectious but less deadly’.  Other research disagrees, concluding that while D614G may be more contagious, there is no evidence it is less deadly.”
    • Related, see the entry in this blog from Jun. 1: “As daily coronavirus case numbers drop in Italy, some doctors have suggested that the virus is weakening and has all but disappeared in the country.”
    • Related, from early June: “Could the Coronavirus Be Weakening as It Spreads?”
      • “Reached for comment on Tuesday, Bassetti elaborated on his prior statement for Elemental. ‘What is happening in our hospitals — at least in the northern part of Italy — the clinical impression is that the disease is now different compared to the disease of three months ago,’ he says. ‘The majority of patients who presented in our emergency rooms or wards during March and April were very sick with acute respiratory distress syndrome, shock, multiple organ failure, and the majority died in the first days after admission. Now in May, we no longer see these types of patients.’”
      • “Other experts echo his sentiments and say that Covid-19 is unlikely to weaken in the near term. ‘Yes, the Golden Rule is that viruses tend to mutate and evolve over time to become less pathogenic while we become more resistant,’ says Mark Cameron, PhD, an infectious disease researcher and associate professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. ‘But that doesn’t happen over a matter of a few months — it’s more like a matter of years.’”
      • “If people underestimate Covid-19 or ignore their state’s public-health guidelines, he says a second wave is still the likeliest scenario. ‘That’s the risk we’re taking right now if we loosen our public-health response,’ [Cameron] says. ‘I hope it doesn’t take a new peak in infections to get people to adhere to some of the simple things that they can do to prevent new infections and potential suffering.’”
    • And yet, the Grim Magic 8-Ball of Death can still dish out the suffering: “After a 'healthy' 11-year-old died, doctors found coronavirus in her heart—revealing new dangers from Covid-19.”
      • “The case study, which was published Thursday in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, documents the case of a ‘previously healthy’ 11-year-old girl of African descent in Brazil. The child began experiencing a abdominal pain, muscle aches and pain, and pain while swallowing, and she had a fever that lasted for seven days. The child also had cracked lips and non-exudative conjunctivitis, which often are present in patients with Kawasaki disease—a rare condition that causes inflammation throughout the body.  The child presented at the hospital with signs of congestive heart failure, hypoxia, and respiratory distress, according to the case study. She was admitted to a pediatric ICU, but she developed cardiac failure and died one day after admission.”
      • “Researchers theorized that the patient may not have had Kawasaki disease, but that she instead had developed an inflammatory syndrome known as Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated with Covid-19, or MIS-C. MIS-C patients experience many of the same symptoms caused by Kawasaki disease, but MIS-C is linked with an infection from the novel coronavirus.”
      • See the entry in this blog from Jul. 27: It’s a gruesome Magic 8-Ball: “Why do ‘mild’ Covid-19 cases sometimes linger for months? Here’s what experts say.”
        • Conditions being tallied include a deadly inflammatory syndrome among children.
          • From the link: “Doctors said the syndrome causes inflammation of the blood vessels, impairs organ function, and can potentially cause damage to the heart. Other symptoms include fever, skin rashes, gland swelling, abdominal pain, vomiting, and diarrhea, according to STAT News.  According to Jane Newburger, a pediatric cardiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital, most children with the syndrome come into the hospital with impaired organ function and a fever, and some come in ‘very sick, even in shock.’”

    Aug. 30:
    • “Oops: It Looks Like the Vast Majority of Positive COVID Results Should Have Been Negative.”
      • There are two ways to read this story: the first is the way The New York Times wrote it. Their story is here, but behind a paywall  Ed. had to resort to archive.today to read it.
        • “The most widely used diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, called a PCR test, provides a simple yes-no answer to the question of whether a patient is infected.
        • But similar PCR tests for other viruses do offer some sense of how contagious an infected patient may be: The results may include a rough estimate of the amount of virus in the patient’s body.”
        • “‘We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,’ Dr. Mina said. ‘We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.’”
        • “But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. ‘It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,’ Dr. Mina said.”
      • Alternately, you can read this conservative-leaning discussion of the Times’ article.  Don't worry, they only pick on the Times a little bit toward the end.
        • “According to The New York Times, potentially 90 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have such insignificant amounts of the virus present in their bodies that such individuals do not need to isolate nor are they candidates for contact tracing. Leading public health experts are now concerned that overtesting is responsible for misdiagnosing a huge number of people with harmless amounts of the virus in their systems.”
        • “‘Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time,’ warns The Times.”
        • “So, if overtesting is causing "bottlenecks" that keep us from identifying contagious people in time, what does The New York Times believe the solution should be? More testing!”
      • But back to The Times:
        • “Instead, new data underscore the need for more widespread use of rapid tests, even if they are less sensitive. ‘The decision not to test asymptomatic people is just really backward,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, referring to the C.D.C. recommendation.”
        • “‘In fact, we should be ramping up testing of all different people,’ he said, ‘but we have to do it through whole different mechanisms.’ In what may be a step in this direction, the Trump administration announced on Thursday that it would purchase 150 million rapid tests.”
      • The Times’ article is really quite good, but it fails to explain why less-sensitive rapid tests are helpful.
        • Ed. disagrees with the current aversion to testing cycling through conservative circles.  For example, the C.D.C.’s recent guidance urging less testing was hailed as sane by conservatives, but makes no sense to ed.
        • But on the other hand, we know how to read off the viral load from P.C.R. tests (The Times explains the number of cycles to amplify any virus to detectable levels can be anywhere from 1 to 40.) So why don't we use that? The Times quotes a couple of virologists who say we should, but it stops there.

    Aug. 31:
    • “New CDC report says 94% of COVID deaths had underlying conditions, only 6% died from COVID alone.”
      • “According to the CDC, 9,683 people have died in the United States having only COVID-19 listed on their death certificate as cause of death. At the time the CDC report was released, 161,392 deaths had been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.”
      • The C.D.C.'s report’s web page is here.  Table 3 is the table of interest.
      • Ed. opines: so what?  What should we change?  Huge numbers of Americans are living with one or more of those underlying conditions.
        • Also, what percentages of survivors have those demographics?

    Sep. 1:
    • The vaccine front-runners:
      • “Among the first vaccine candidates to start the final round of testing is one developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca. Also far along are experimental shots from Pfizer Inc. and its partner BioNTech SE as well as Moderna Inc.”
      • “China National Pharmaceutical Group Co., or Sinopharm, has a vaccine in Phase 3. A vaccine from another Chinese company, CanSino Biologics, is expected to begin the pivotal testing soon. But remember, many vaccines that show promise in early testing fail during the final round.”
      • “While final-stage testing may stretch for months or even years to continue to track safety and the durability of protection, positive interim results from Phase 3 may be enough for a vaccine to start getting regulatory approval for mass production and distribution in the meantime. Several of the leading vaccine candidates expect interim results this fall.”
        • Lots of good graphics with timelines for phase 3 trials at the link (and behind their paywall).
    • Related: “Coronavirus update: FDA sparks new debate over ‘following Russia, China’ in vaccine push.”
      • “The rapid push toward a coronavirus vaccine is feeding concerns among health experts, who fear the COVID-19 crisis response will be further polarized and undermined by political pressures.”
      • “Over the weekend, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn alarmed experts when, in an interview with the Financial Times, he suggested the regulatory body could approve a vaccine before Phase 3 trials are complete.”
        • The article includes some interesting graphics, including a map color-coding U.S. states by growth or shrinking of case volumes.
    • A pre-print on re-infection:
      • Abstract: “The degree of protective immunity conferred by infection with SARS-CoV-2 is currently unknown. As15 such, the possibility of reinfection with this virus is not well understood. Herein, we describe the data16 from an investigation of two instances of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the same individual. Through nucleic17 acid sequence analysis, the viruses associated with each instance of infection were found to possess a18 degree of genetic discordance that cannot be explained reasonably through short-termin vivoevolution.  We conclude that it is possible for humans to become infected multiple times by SARS-CoV-2, but the2 generalizability of this finding is not known.”
      • From the comments on the website (ed. of course cannot confirm this information is accurate, and is not implying it is):
        • The most common strain is the G strain and its two variants. It spreads easily but doesn't kill as many people (3%). The original strain, the L strain didn't spread as easily but it had a higher death rate (6+%).

          The man in Hong Kong who acquired it twice didn't get sick the second time. He survived the L strain first and caught the G strain while on a work trip to Europe.
    • It’s a gruesome Magic 8-Ball: “COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven’t Had Any Symptoms.”
      • “Though it often resolves without incident, myocarditis can lead to severe complications such as abnormal heart rhythms, chronic heart failure and even sudden death. Just a few weeks ago, a former Florida State basketball player, Michael Ojo, died of suspected heart complications just after recovering from a bout of COVID-19 in Serbia, where he was playing pro ball.”
      • “We’ve also known for a while that some COVID-19 patients’ hearts are taking a beating, too—but over the past few weeks, the evidence has strengthened that cardiac damage can happen even among people who have never displayed symptoms of coronavirus infection. And these frightening findings help explain why college and professional sports leagues are proceeding with special caution as they make decisions about whether or not to play.”
    • “America Is Running Low on a Crucial Resource for COVID-19 Vaccines.  The country is facing a monkey shortage.”
      • “In the past seven months, more than 100 COVID-19 vaccines, therapies, and drugs have been pushed into development. But for any of these treatments to make it to humans, they usually have to face another animal first: a monkey. And here, scientists in the United States say they are facing a bottleneck. There just aren’t enough monkeys to go around.”
      • Can’t we just use the professional rioters instead?
    • On the one hand: “Coronavirus-related hospitalizations and deaths of children and teens are on the rise, according to data compiled by the American Academy of Pediatrics.”
      • “Although data indicate younger children are less likely to catch or transmit the virus, the May 21-Aug. 20 dataset shows a similar rise across states. Complicating matters is the fact that states use different grouping strategies, with many putting infants and teens in the same category, The New York Times notes.”
    • On the other hand: “CDC Data Confirm That Young People Face a Negligible Risk of Dying From COVID-19.”
      • “The latest data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirm that young people face a negligible risk of dying from the disease, while people 65 and older face a much higher risk. Patients 65 or older account for about 16 percent of confirmed cases but four-fifths of COVID-19 deaths.”
      • Ed. opines: Dear author at Reason Magazine: it is not your job to determine for me when a risk is ‘negligible’.  Shut up.
    • “COVID-19 Lockdowns Over 10 Times More Deadly Than Pandemic Itself.”
      • “Up until this point there had been no simple, rigorous analysis that accurately and definitively conveys the true costs of the COVID-19 lockdowns. Accordingly, Revolver News set out to commission a study to do precisely that: to finally quantify the net damage of the lockdowns in terms of a metric known as ‘life-years.’”
      • “Simply put, we have drawn upon existing economic studies on the health effects of unemployment to calculate an estimate of how many years of life will have been lost due to the lockdowns in the United States, and have weighed this against an estimate of how many years of life will have been saved by the lockdowns. The results are nothing short of staggering, and suggest that the lockdowns will end up costing Americans over 10 times as many years of life as they will save from the virus itself.”

    Sep. 2:
    • “New Belgian large-cohort study shows hydroxychloroquine significantly reduces mortality.”
      • “The original paper “Low-dose Hydroxychloroquine Therapy and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Nationwide Observational Study of 8075 Participants” by L. Catteau et al., can be read here as a postprint (i.e., an accepted manuscript in press following peer review): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106144”
        • Quoting that paper: “Death was reported in 804/4542 (17.7%) and 957/3533 (27.1%), respectively. In the multivariable analysis, the mortality was lower in the HCQ group compared to the no-HCQ group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.684, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.617–0.758).”
        • These are people sick enough to require hospitalization; hence the high mortality rate.
      • “[T]he sample is nationwide, namely: all hospital admissions with COVID19 in Belgium until May 24 for which proper documentation on admission and discharge could be secured, and who had been given either HCQ or just ‘standard of care’ (i.e., patients who got other experimental treatments were excluded, whether or not they also received HCQ).”
        • No mention of zinc.
        • And azithromycin: “Early during the amplification phase of the epidemic in Belgium, and pending results of clinical trials, off-label administration of a “low-dose” regimen of HCQ sulphate in monotherapy (400mg twice on day 1, followed by 200mg twice a day from day 2 to 5, i.e. a total dose of 2400 mg) was recommended as an acceptable immediate treatment option for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. […] Of note, azithromycin and systemic use of corticosteroids were not recommended in the guidance.”
      • Readers of this blog know that the results are even more compelling when the drug is administered prior to any need for hospitalization (see Jun. 30): “Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy.”

    Sep. 4:
    • “Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?”
      • Here we get into the incredibly oversimplified rule-of-thumb that everyone is betting their life on.  “Rigid safe distancing rules are an oversimplification based on outdated science and experiences of past viruses, argue Nicholas R Jones and colleagues.”
      • “Rules that stipulate [separation distance] are based on an outdated, dichotomous notion of respiratory droplet size. This overlooks the physics of respiratory emissions, where droplets of all sizes are trapped and moved by the exhaled moist and hot turbulent gas cloud that keeps them concentrated as it carries them over metres in a few seconds.12 After the cloud slows sufficiently, ventilation, specific patterns of airflow, and type of activity become important. Viral load of the emitter, duration of exposure, and susceptibility of an individual to infection are also important.”

    First, to make sure readers are grossed out, we have some evidence.

    Second, the money chart, estimating the likelihood of
    transmission based on various conditions.
    • “The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns -- New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread.”
      • Anyway, “TrendMacro, my analytics firm, tallied the cumulative number of reported cases of Covid-19 in each state and the District of Columbia as a percentage of population, based on data from state and local health departments aggregated by the Covid Tracking Project. We then compared that with the timing and intensity of the lockdown in each jurisdiction. That is measured not by the mandates put in place by government officials, but rather by observing what people in each jurisdiction actually did, along with their baseline behavior before the lockdowns.”
      • “[L]ockdowns correlated with a greater spread of the virus. States with longer, stricter lockdowns also had larger Covid outbreaks. The five places with the harshest lockdowns—the District of Columbia, New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts—had the heaviest caseloads.”
      • “We’re not the only researchers to have discovered this statistical relationship. We first published a version of these findings in April, around the same time similar findings appeared in these pages. In July, a publication of the Lancet published research that found similar results looking across countries rather than U.S. states. ‘A longer time prior to implementation of any lockdown was associated with a lower number of detected cases,’ the study concludes. Those findings have now been enhanced by sophisticated measures of actual social distancing, and data from the reopening phase.”
      • See the Aug. 6 entry in this blog, “NONE of the non-pharma interventions (NPI) have done anything: not lockdown[s], not masks, not travel bans. Everyone got the same curve.”
    • And now, ed. will critique an application of oversimplified mathematics to CV19 from the B.B.C. titled “Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19.”
      • First, we hear from the author: “A simple mathematical mistake may explain why many people underestimate the dangers of coronavirus, shunning social distancing, masks and hand-washing.”
      • “Imagine you are offered a deal with your bank, where your money doubles every three days. If you invest just $1 today, roughly how long will it take for you to become a millionaire? […] Many people consistently underestimate how fast the value increases – a mistake known as the ‘exponential growth bias’.”
      • “According to various epidemiological studies, without intervention the number of new Covid-19 cases doubles every three to four days, which was the reason that so many scientists advised rapid lockdowns to prevent the pandemic from spiralling out of control.”
        • So there you have it:  
          • First, the growth without intervention would be exponential.  
          • Second, stupid humans don’t understand that, or don’t believe it.  
          • Leading to third, this explains why some particularly stupid humans don’t fall into the lock-down lockstep. 
        • Alas, nothing in nature or human activity is exponential.  Absolutely nothing.  Consider the bunny rabbit example.  Sure, rabbits breed very quickly and in theory their numbers double every few weeks.  Of course that doesn’t happen, and not simply because of predators and disease.  It takes real work to find another rabbit to mate with!  Very quickly, if exponential rates held true, a rabbit would be crawling over acres of pregnant rabbits to try to find a partner.  Time and space realities destroy the myth of exponential growth.
          • And so it is with a virus.  If, to follow the exponential plan, a sick person person needs to infect three people in one day (just to make an example), then there must be three situations where the sick person is close enough to someone to pass the viral load to the second.  But what if that second person is also sick?  Then one of those three opportunities is gone.  If even a fraction of people a sick person normally contacts are also sick, there is not enough time to find a person to infect, and the rate must slow.  Again, the myth of exponential growth is destroyed by the realities of space and time.
        • And apart from whether exponential growth does or does not happen, there is the glaring wrongness of terrible models that predicted vastly larger numbers of sick people early in the pandemic.  Saying stupid subjects don’t believe in exponential growth is akin to saying stupid humans don’t listen to late-night television ads like they should.  We stupid humans know both are lies!

    Sep. 5:
    • Ignore the hype about O.R.N.L.’s supercomputer.  What is new to ed. is the ‘bradykinin hypothesis’.  
      • “Covid-19 stands out for both the scale of its global impact and the apparent randomness of its many symptoms. Physicians have struggled to understand the disease and come up with a unified theory for how it works. Though as of yet unproven, the bradykinin hypothesis provides such a theory. And like all good hypotheses, it also provides specific, testable predictions — in this case, actual drugs that could provide relief to real patients.”
      • “The hypothesis provides a model that explains many aspects of Covid-19, including some of its most bizarre symptoms. It also suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved.”
      • “The end result, the researchers say, is to release a bradykinin storm — a massive, runaway buildup of bradykinin in the body. According to the bradykinin hypothesis, it’s this storm that is ultimately responsible for many of Covid-19’s deadly effects. Jacobson’s team says in their paper that ‘the pathology of Covid-19 is likely the result of Bradykinin Storms rather than cytokine storms,’ which had been previously identified in Covid-19 patients, but that ‘the two may be intricately linked’.”
      • The researchers say their research shows that the disease “increases production of hyaluronic acid (HLA) in the lungs. HLA is often used in soaps and lotions for its ability to absorb more than 1,000 times its weight in fluid. When it combines with fluid leaking into the lungs, the results are disastrous: It forms a hydrogel, which can fill the lungs in some patients.”
      • “According to the researchers, bradykinin storms could create arrhythmias and low blood pressure, which are often seen in Covid-19 patients.”
      • “The bradykinin hypothesis also accounts for Covid-19’s neurological effects, which are some of the most surprising and concerning elements of the disease. These symptoms (which include dizziness, seizures, delirium, and stroke) are present in as many as half of hospitalized Covid-19 patients.”
        • Time and more research will tell.
    • Here is another paper citing low Vitamin D as risk for CV19.
      • “Findings: In this cohort study of 489 patients who had a vitamin D level measured in the year before COVID-19 testing, the relative risk of testing positive for COVID-19 was 1.77 times greater for patients with likely deficient vitamin D status compared with patients with likely sufficient vitamin D status, a difference that was statistically significant.” [em.: ed.]
        • Correlation does not imply causality.  But the evidence is becoming overwhelming.
    • “Key model predicts 400,000 coronavirus deaths in US by January.”
      • “The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington posted an update Friday predicting an additional 224,000 Americans will die by the beginning of next year.  The model says that as many as 122,000 of those deaths could be avoided with safety measures, including near-universal mask use, but it warns that easing restrictions could cause the death toll to be more than 620,000.”
      • The IHME model’s “update comes just one day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established a new forecast predicting 211,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by Sept. 26.”
        • See entry in this blog from Apr. 8: IHME modeled deaths for U.S. (that drives policy decisions) is reduced for third time, from 94,000 (April 1) to 82,000 (April 5) to 61,000 (April 7). All three predictions assumed full social distancing. It should be noted that for none of the models are we at the half-way point yet. Note that the second graph below is the running sum of the first.
        • Current 2020 U.S. total listing CV19 as cause of death sits at 187,775.  The seven-day average dropped below 1,000/day 14 days ago, and now sits at 857/day.  Source: 91-DIVOC.  There are 118 days left in the year.  Cold and flu season is approaching.

    91-DIVOC


    I.H.M.E. predictions.
    The purple line uses an estimated 45% mask usage rate,
    which is a straight-line continuation of the
    most recent observed rate. The green line assumes a
    straight-line 95% mask usage daily. Warning: changes in
    mobility are also included in the model.
        • Ed. is not impressed.  Why does the projection for all three models immediately start to climb, starting tomorrow morning?  Isn't that convenient?  The green line assumes that, starting tomorrow morning, 95% of us are wearing masks, up from 45% today, and the death rate climbs?
        • And further stretching the bounds of credulity, the peak death rate for the purple line exceeds that when people on the East Coast were dying at the onset.  While it is possible that rates could climb as people are forced back indoors by weather, why would anyone expect anything worse that what happened when we were blind-sided?  Remember, our pundits and leaders were calling us racist for not dining in Chinatown while all that spreading was happening.
        • Ed. is tired, but finally will mention that the model’s assumptions about mobility are just as nonsensical.
    • “Russia's COVID-19 vaccine showed antibody response in initial trials.”
      • “The results of the two trials, conducted in June-July this year and involving 76 participants, showed 100% of participants developing antibodies to the new coronavirus and no serious side effects, The Lancet said.”
      • “Russia licensed the two-shot jab for domestic use in August, the first country to do so and before any data had been published or a large-scale trial begun.”
      • The paper is here.
        • 76 participants is barely a phase 1 trial.
    • Related: “Covid-19 Vaccine Developers Prepare Joint Pledge on Safety, Standards.”
      • “Several drug makers developing Covid-19 vaccines plan to issue a public pledge not to seek government approval until the shots have proven to be safe and effective, an unusual joint move among rivals that comes as they work to address concerns over a rush to mass vaccination.”
      • “A draft of the joint statement, still being finalized by companies including Pfizer Inc., Johnson & Johnson and Moderna Inc. and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, commits to making the safety and well-being of vaccinated people the companies’ priority. The vaccine makers would also pledge to adhere to high scientific and ethical standards in the conduct of clinical studies and in the manufacturing processes.”

    Sep. 9:
    • Phase 3 is fraught with risks: “AstraZeneca Pauses Covid-19 Vaccine Trial After Illness in a U.K. Subject.”
      • “AstraZeneca called the pause a ‘routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials.’”
      • “Oxford University issued a similar statement, saying that while illnesses will happen by chance in large trials, they must be reviewed independently.”
    • “Coronavirus: Heart and lung damage ‘can repair itself’.”
      • “Researchers in the Tyrolean region of Austria recruited coronavirus patients who had been admitted to hospital, and at the European Respiratory Society International Congress today they reported on the first 86 patients enrolled between April 29 and June 9.”
      • From a related article: 
        • “At the six-week visit, echocardiograms showed that 48 patients (58.5 per cent) had dysfunction of the left ventricle of the heart at the point when it is relaxing and dilating (diastole).”
        • “Dr Sahanic added: ‘Fortunately, in the Innsbruck cohort, we did not observe any severe coronavirus-associated heart dysfunction in the post-acute phase.  The diastolic dysfunction that we observed also tended to improve with time.’”
        • No link to the study is provided by either article.
      • See entry Jul. 29: “In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.”
    • “New Study: Vitamin D reduces risk of ICU admission 97%.”
      • “The study took place in a university hospital setting: Reina Sofia University Hospital, in Cordoba, Spain. The 76 patients were all hospitalized for confirmed cases of Covid-19. So these are not the mild to moderate, stay-at-home types of patients. The intervention group was 50 patients and the control group was 26 patients.”
      • “The results were astounding (and highly statistically significant). ‘Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol [25(OH)D or 25-hydroxyvitamin D], one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50%)’. Would you rather have a 50% risk of needing ICU care, or a 2% risk?”
        • This is different than what this blog's entry on Sep. 5 (a study with 489 patients found the relative risk of testing positive for COVID-19 was 1.77 times greater for patients with likely deficient vitamin D status compared with patients with likely sufficient vitamin D status.
        • H/T to ed’s college friend who continues to feed this blog with good stuff.
    • Related: the site linked above is a gold mine for curated commentary on CV19 research.  
    • “Wall Street Explains Why Despite A "Second Wave" In COVID Cases, Deaths Have Barely Budged.”
      • “A key reason for this - as we first discussed in July in ‘The Under-40s Dilemma’ - is that it’s now younger people who are more likely to get the virus.  As Reid points out, while most of this evidence has been anecdotal across the world the attached chart from Public Health England provides some telling statistics: back at the peak of the pandemic in late March, 61% of the confirmed cases were among those over 60. But they now make up just 11% of cases. For over 80 year olds it's dropped from 28% to 3%. For those under 40 it’s the reverse picture with cases increasing from 14% to 67% of the total.”

    Second wave in Europe with a vastly different
    infection fatality rate (I.F.R.).

    The data strongly suggest that the mix of population
    getting sick is the reason for the change in I.F.R.
      • And from ‘The Under-40s Dilemma’, “Here is the punchline: for Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. In fact, the death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, ‘a remarkable difference to Covid-19.’”

    The difference in death rates per million people,
    binned by age group, for the Spanish flu and CV19.

    Sep. 11:
      • This article explains that CV19 virus particles and the droplets that house them are smaller than smoke particles:
        • “A quick Google search will tell us that smoke particles and debris are usually .4 to .7 microns in size.”
        • “Another quick Google search will tell us that the Wuhan Virus is .12 microns in size, about a quarter in size of the smoke and fire debris particulate.  Even if we factor for the ‘respiratory droplets’ that are allegedly to blame for the spread of coronavirus, those droplets are as small as .5 microns, or as small or smaller than smoke and fire debris particulate.”
          • This is an example of ‘if-apples-taste-good-then-oranges-must-be-green’ illogical deduction and it makes ed. nuts.  
          • If one is trying to breath in smoke-choked air, where there are 10 million smoke particles per liter, one needs a high-quality respirator to filter out 99.999% of these things.  
          • But if one is shopping for avocados and the person 8 feet away might have the virus, and might have got some viral-loaded droplets through his mask, and some of them might hit your mask, well, a medium-quality mask will reduce the likelihood of ingesting the bug to levels equal to being hit by a piano.
            • All numbers and likelihoods were made up by ed. on the spot, but readers hopefully get the gist.
    • We've heard this plenty of times now.  “COVID-19 silently arrived in US near Christmas — earlier than thought, UCLA study says”
      • “Researchers with the University of California Los Angeles looked at over 10 million patient and health records spanning Dec. 1, 2019, to Feb. 29, 2020, and records from the previous five years, and found a troubling trend.  Patient visits to UCLA hospitals for coughs spiked 50% compared to years past, surpassing the average number of visits for that specific issue by 1,000, according to the study.”
      • “If true, that would shake up the current narrative of the virus’ origins in the country.”
        • That is very circumstantial evidence.  
        • Ed. rants and raves: could the authors of the study not be bothered to do some basic research on what others have uncovered?  Readers of this blog have previously learned:
    • Flashback to Jul. 15, when ed. added this graph from 91-DIVOC:
      • Today:

    Sep. 15:
    • “Ab8 COVID-19 Drug Breakthrough: Tiny Antibody Component Completely Neutralizes the SARS-CoV-2 Virus”
      • “[A consortium from U. Pittsburgh, U.N.C., U.Texas, U. British Columbia] have isolated the smallest biological molecule to date that completely and specifically neutralizes the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is the cause of COVID-19. This antibody component, which is 10 times smaller than a full-sized antibody, has been used to construct a drug — known as Ab8 — for potential use as a therapeutic and prophylactic against SARS-CoV-2.”
      • “The researchers report today (September 14, 2020) in the journal Cell that Ab8 is highly effective in preventing and treating SARS-CoV-2 infection in mice and hamsters. Its tiny size not only increases its potential for diffusion in tissues to better neutralize the virus, but also makes it possible to administer the drug by alternative routes, including inhalation. Importantly, it does not bind to human cells — a good sign that it won’t have negative side-effects in people.”
      • Shown effective in mice.
      • Nothing in the report discusses the difficulty of transitioning to human trials.
    • NY Post: “A Chinese virologist who has alleged that COVID-19 was human-made in a lab in China released a report on Monday that she says backs up her explosive claim.”
      • “Dr. Li-Meng Yan, a former researcher at the Hong Kong School of Public Health, posted a paper on the the open-access repository website Zenote, that she claims shows how SARS-CoV-2 could be ‘conveniently created’ in a laboratory setting in six months.  The paper, co-authored with two others, is titled ‘Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route.’”
        • “It claims to note how ‘SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus.’”
      • “Other scientists out of California have previously published a journal article mapping out the virus’ genetic sequence which they say proves ‘SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.’”
        • Ed. opines: it is not only statistics (as in lies, damned lies, and statistics) that can be manipulated for political or other ends.  We may never know the truth.

    Oct. 25:
    • Ed. apologies for being AWOL the past six weeks. It has been a personal struggle. Depression is not fun. Ed. hopes his psychopharmacologist can figure things out soon.
    • “Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine trials set to resume.”
      • “Investigators found the unexplained illnesses in both trials appeared unconnected to the vaccines.”
      • A summary of vaccine efforts is here.
    • The E.U. may have avoided the summer wave of cases fueled by younger people refusing to stay locked down, but boy, are they getting it good and hard in the fall:

    New cases, one week average, normalized by population.

    Select E.U. countries compared to U.S.A. (blue line),
    normalized by population    .
      • Even lauded Germany and Ed.’s sentimental favorite Sweden are getting whacked, while the U.S.A. heads for round three.

    New cases in Sweden and Germany, compared to U.S.A.,
    normalized by population, seven-day rolling average    .
        • Ed. invites the reader to click the link and change the metric to “New Deaths, 1 wk. avg.”
      • A helpful round-up of various country and local actions here.  (Warning: this is a Twitter aggregator that ordinarily deals in opinion, so the final sentence is full of snark.  Just ignore that sentence and you’ll be fine.)
    • PCR “cycle threshold” values are finally getting some attention.
      • “Standard tests identify SARS-CoV-2 infections by isolating and amplifying viral RNA using a procedure known as the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which relies on multiple cycles of amplification to produce a detectable amount of RNA. The CT value is the number of cycles necessary to spot the virus; PCR machines stop running at that point. If a positive signal isn’t seen after 37 to 40 cycles, the test is negative. But samples that turn out positive can start out with vastly different amounts of virus, for which the CT value provides an inverse measure. A test that registers a positive result after 12 rounds, for a CT value of 12, starts out with more than 10 million times as much viral genetic material as a sample with a CT value of 35.”
      • “But the same sample can give different CT values on different testing machines, and different swabs from the same person can give different results.”
    • “The CDC’s Latest Antibody Data Confirm Huge Interstate Differences in COVID-19 Fatality Rates”
      • “The latest data from antibody studies conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) across the country confirm that the death rate among Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus varies very widely from one state to another. The CDC’s prevalence estimates for August, combined with contemporaneous death counts, suggest that the infection fatality rate (IFR) was at least 10 times higher in Connecticut than in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, or Utah, for example.”
      • “The estimated IFRs range from less than 0.4 percent in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah to 3.8 percent in Connecticut. Most states (27) had estimated IFRs below 1 percent, although 20 reached or exceeded that threshold.”
        • Good analysis: “Why do COVID-19 patients fare so much worse in some states than others? Possible explanations include age demographics, the prevalence of preexisting medical conditions, the quality and capacity of local health care systems (including the extent to which they are strained by the pandemic), and population density, which not only makes it easier for the virus to move from person to person but may result in larger virus doses and more dangerous infections. Another factor could be the timing of each state's epidemic, since the development of more effective treatments may have improved outcomes for people infected more recently.”
    • “Moderna has competed enrollment of 30,000 diverse volunteers for its coronavirus vaccine trial, putting it on track for its goal of emergency FDA approval in December”
      • “Moderna Inc announced on Thursday that it completed its goal of enrolling 30,000 volunteers in its coronavirus vaccine trial.”
      • “More than 25,000 participants have received the second of two jabs and will be monitored for two months.”
      • “Of the 30,000 people, 37% are minorities and 42% are people at high-risk of developing COVID-19.”
      • “The drugmaker said earlier this week it is expecting interim results next month and, if positive, will apply for emergency approval with the FDA.”
    • “Gilead’s remdesivir gets FULL FDA approval as a treatment for hospitalized coronavirus patients”
      • “Previously, it was the only medication approved in the US to treat COVID-19 patients by emergency use.”
      • “A recent NIH study found remdesivir shortened coronavirus hospital stays by five days and reduces the risk of death by 30%.”
      • “Gilead Sciences, which manufactures the drug, says it is planning to produce two million treatment courses by the end of the year.”
    • Related: “WHO study says remdesivir has ‘little or no effect’ on COVID-19”
    • “Why aren’t US COVID-19 mortality rates catching up with surging cases yet? Coronavirus caused two-thirds of this year’s 300,000 ‘excess deaths’ - but virus fatality rates are now FAR lower than in the spring due to Americans driving the infections.”
      • “Excess deaths peaked in the spring, when New York City was the pandemic's epicenter and have never risen to that level again despite surges in infection rates in the summer and again this fall.”
      • “Experts explained how broader testing has identified more infections among young people, care has improved and the geography of the US pandemic has shifted to keep mortality rates lower.”
      • “But they warn that the movement of social gatherings indoors this winter is likely to drive another spike of coronavirus deaths - though not as large as the first one seen in the spring.”
      • “The likelihood that a critically ill COVID-19 patient would die of the disease dropped by 22 percentage points from March to August, according to a study from New York University's (NYU) Langone Health.  In part, this was explained by the younger ages of the patients seen later in the pandemic. Their average age dropped from 63 in March to 47 by August. The proportion who had pre-existing conditions that put them at risk fell too.  But the demographic shift wasn't enough to fully explain the dramatic reduction in fatality risks.  Hospitals were also less overwhelmed, meaning patients had a better chance of being well attended, in a timely manner.  Treating patients with blood thinners has likely saved lives since doctors learned that SARS-CoV-2 attacks the cardiovascular system as well as the lungs and causes clots. The antiviral remdesivir’s benefits are now under scrutiny, but drugs like it, the steroid dexamethasone and appropriately used antibiotics are now widely used, as opposed to the early stages of the pandemic, when every treatment was a shot in the dark.  Plus, simple non-pharmaceutical methods, like turning COVID-19 patients on their stomachs when they struggle to breathe, help to bat back risks that they get more severely ill, and are now done sooner in the treatment process.”
        • Ed explains: we're not talking about a 22 percent drop in the death rate for critically ill. No, the authors chose a misleading phrase to convey their finding.  The empirical death rate dropped from 25%~27% in March to 3%~5% in August! Ed. would call that “five-fold decrease in death rate for critically ill.”
    • “The coronavirus can remain on some surfaces for 28 days, including phone screens, paper money, and stainless steel, according to a new study published in the Virology Journal.”
      • Ed was wondering when more work would finally be done regarding the durability of this virus.  Ed. and spouse have been living with the 72-hour rule of thumb since March.
      • But Ed. notes that durability is not the same as durable infectiousness.  To wit:
        • “[T]he study was conducted in the dark to remove the effect of UV light, which can inactivate the virus. That means the lab conditions may not match the real world. The items were left undisturbed as well, but phone screens and banknotes are often moved around, which could wipe off the virus.”
        • “‘What we’re seeing empirically, clinically, with contact tracing, is that COVID is not spreading heavily through touch,’ Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, told CTV News.”
          • Ed. opines: wouldn’t you want to compare the durability in outdoor, indoor naturally lit, and indoor dark conditions?
          • Ed. opines: All during the heat of the summer, Ed. encountered disabled water fountains as he staggered, dehydrated and thirsty, around on his bicycle.  The sheer idiocy of trading a chance CV19 infection for certain dehydration just boggles.  Ed.’s “elites” can kiss Ed.’s ass.
    Oct. 26:
    • “Fewer than 4% of people in Wuhan have COVID-19 antibodies, study finds.”
      • “Fewer than 4% of adults in Wuhan, China, tested positive for antibodies against COVID-19, putting the possibility of countries developing "herd immunity" against the virus without a vaccine in doubt, according to an analysis published Friday by JAMA Network Open.”
      • Ed. reminds his readers that T-cells play a critical role, and study after study have shown that antibodies seem to fade, while T-cells provide lasting protection.
      • “And Instapundit adds: Given the other evidence we’ve seen that immunity is mostly engaged via T-cells, with antibody production occurring only where that fails, and that T-cell immunity is lasting, I don’t think the conclusion that this means there’s no herd immunity without a vaccine necessarily follows.”
    Oct. 27:
    • Major media continue to pound out news stories reporting on record numbers of new CV19 cases.  Readers know that numbers of new cases can be driven by all sorts of choices and effects.  As responsible members of society, it is crucial that we all remember that cases are not the important metric - excess deaths is the only unambiguous metric to watch.  
      • But even backing away from excess deaths, and just focusing on CV19-assigned deaths (still manipulatable!) takes significant wind out of the sails of doom being hoisted by the media.

    New CV19 confirmed cases, and new CV19-assigned deaths;
    each with a seven-day rolling average.
      • The graph above shows confirmed cases and deaths.  The three peaks in cases already have easily discernable differences in their trailing death rate.  
        • The first peak resulted in nearly contemporaneous deaths, and the sick and elderly were crushed by the disease in the northeast U.S. 
        • The second peak in cases eventually generated a second peak in deaths, but with a significant delay.  And while the second peak in cases was more than twice as high as the first peak, the death peak was more than twice as low!
        • And now we arrive at a third peak.  (No end in sight?)  But (as shown by Ed.’s hand-drawn black Ls) we have already passed the gestation period that was required for the death response of peak 2 to appear.  Where is it?  What will happen this time?  
          • Whatever does happen, do not turn to your mainstream media outlet for a thoughtful interpretation.
    • Related: “Dr. Scott Gottlieb: U.S. at Covid ‘tipping point’ but can still prevent new ‘exponential spread’.”
      • Gottlieb is the commissioner of the F.D.A.  (He is not an epidemiologist.) 
      • “At this point, Gottlieb contended there is still an opportunity for the country to stave off reimplementing broad-based lockdowns by using tailored restrictions in areas with significant spread. The former U.S. Food and Drug Administration commissioner cautioned, however, that the window is closing.”
      • Readers of this blog are invited to Duck-Duck-Go the term “safetyism” to describe the weakness and fear that is part of the division in the U.S. and indeed around the world.
    • C.D.C. excess deaths check-in:
      • Recall that this metric includes all deaths, and compares against numbers of deaths from an average of the past three years, normalized by population.  Therefore this statistic also includes:
        • CV19 deaths
        • Deaths from the flu
        • Attendant policy mistakes that cause deaths (suicides, undetected cancers)
    • A friend of this blog writes: “this article seems thoughtful about what I have long felt is obsessive and excessive attention to surface transmission of Covid.”  “It’s Time to Talk About Covid-19 and Surfaces Again”  Ed. agrees.
      • “For Emanuel Goldman, a virologist at Rutgers University, the worries began with the gentle nagging of his elderly mother-in-law. ‘She was telling me, “Wipe down this, wipe down that”,’ he says. He had been obliging at the start of the pandemic. The requests seemed reasonable—a set of small acts to keep his household safer. He knew from other viruses that fomite spread—the technical term for passing on a virus via objects—was possible, and at that time the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had little guidance on SARS-CoV-2. But as he delved into the research himself, he grew concerned. Despite all the fixation on how long and how much virus lasts on surfaces, there wasn’t much evidence at all that it was relevant to how Covid-19 actually spread. In July he laid out those concerns in a tersely worded commentary in The Lancet titled ‘Exaggerated risk of transmission of Covid-19 by fomites’.”
      • See related comments on the difference between durability and transmissibility from an entry made Oct. 25.
    • “WHO warns giving up on efforts to control Covid-19 would be ‘dangerous’.”
      • “‘Giving up on control is dangerous,’ said Tedros Adhamon Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director-general. ‘Control should … be part of the strategy.’”
      • “The remarks by Tedros, as he is known, came a day after White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows seemed to indicate in a CNN interview that the administration has concluded containment of the virus is not possible.  ‘We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics, and other mitigation areas,’ Meadows told CNN’s Jake Tapper on ‘State of the Union’.”
        • Umm, containment of the virus has not been possible.  Can anyone seriously argue with anything in the Meadows quote above?  And yet, the response is to twist his words to mean he suggests “giving up”?
    • China has rolled out mass CV19 testing for nearly 5 million people and imposed lockdown measures in the prefecture of Kashgar in the far western region of Xinjiang, after a single asymptomatic coronavirus case was reported on Saturday.
      • “The testing drive has so far identified 137 additional cases -- and all are asymptomatic, according to Xinjiang’s regional health commission. This is the highest daily number of asymptomatic Covid-19 cases reported in China in nearly seven months.  As of Sunday afternoon, some 2.8 million people have been tested. The government expects to finish testing all of Kashgar’s 4.7 million population by Tuesday.  The outbreak is Xinjiang's second since China’s initial wave of coronavirus infections was brought under control in March.”
        • Yes, that province: “Home to 11 million Uyghurs, a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority, the region has been subjected to a sweeping security and religious crackdown in recent years. The US State Department estimates that up to 2 million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities could have been detained in internment camps.”
    • “Study Shows Covid-19 Antibodies Waning Over Time, Suggesting Immunity Might Wear Off.”
      • “The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home using a finger-prick test showed the proportion of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies declined by 26.5% between June 20—12 weeks after the peak of infections in the country—and Sept. 28.  The results also suggested that people who didn’t display symptoms were likely to lose detectable antibodies before those who had showed symptoms.”
      • “The study reflects earlier smaller trials and suggests that antibodies to the virus decline over 6-12 months after infection, as in other seasonal coronaviruses such as the common cold. The study doesn’t indicate whether other types of immune responses—such as that contributed by so-called T cells—would help protect against reinfection.”
        • And yet, the email blast that announced this article this way: “A survey in England … suggest[s] widespread long-term herd immunity will be difficult to achieve.”
    • “What The WHO Really Said About Lockdowns — And Why — Will Surprise You.”
      • “Much of Europe is locking down again. Restaurants closing, bars closing, capacity limits in places like hotels and bars. Avoid your neighbor like the plague because, well, he may just have the plague. (Or what is being portrayed as such.) This in the wake of the World Health Organization’s alleged ‘backflipping’ about this most bizarre practice of quarantining healthy people and destroying the economy in order to delay inevitable infections.”
      • “What you may not know is the WHO, which from its record you would think had supported lockdowns and still would be, never has. And the probable explanation will almost certainly surprise you.”
        • Read the whole thing.
    • Related: “Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns.  Lockdowns have been used to control the coronavirus around the world. Now a WHO official has questioned the success of them.”

    Oct. 29:
    • In case you missed it while ed. was in his basement, “calling a lid” for a month: “WHO Estimates Coronavirus Has Infected 10% of Global Population.”
      • “The new estimate indicates some 760 million people may have been infected by the virus.”
      • “‘Our current best estimates tell us that about 10% of the global population may have been infected by this virus,’ Mike Ryan, the executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, told an executive board meeting on Monday.  The estimate varies by country, urban or rural settings and different groups of people, according to Ryan.”
        • Ed. opines: and then comes the most awful non-sequitur ed. has witnessed in journalism in some years:  “The estimate aligns with previous studies of the U.S. population that suggested relatively few people have antibodies, raising doubts about the idea of herd immunity.”
        • So in one sentence, the journalist ignores the good news of a greatly reduced infection fatality rate and spins bizarrely to a claim that this aligns with doubts about herd immunity.  
    • Another damned thing to worry about: “U.S. States Face Biggest Cash Crisis Since the Great Depression.”
      • “Nationwide, the U.S. state budget shortfall from 2020 through 2022 could amount to about $434 billion, according to data from Moody’s Analytics, the economic analysis arm of Moody’s Corp. The estimates assume no additional fiscal stimulus from Washington, further coronavirus-fueled restrictions on business and travel, and extra costs for Medicaid amid high unemployment.”

    “The cries of poverty from states are not based on the numbers,
    but a lobbying effort to extract as much money from
    the federal government as possible.”
      • Ed. cannot, unfortunately, link to the source for this image.  It is part of a financial analysis email blast that some subscribers purchase, and apparently has no home on the WWW.  However, ed. can vouch for his source being a careful purchaser of information.
    • “Why So Gullible About Government in the Face of Covid-19?”
      • “Population immunity, either through a pathogen’s natural spread or through a vaccine, will at some point significantly reduce that pathogen’s danger; in contrast, for protection against government power there is no population immunity or vaccine. When such power expands, the ratchet effect documented by Robert Higgs ensures that that power remains more elevated and widespread than before.”
        • The author cites our world-wide airport kabuki theater as an example of the ratchet effect.
    Oct. 30:
    • “DOJ seeks more NY nursing home data after finding COVID death undercount.”
      • “In total, the New York Health Department publicly reports about 6,720 deaths from the serious respiratory bug in nursing homes and adult-care facilities. But the true scope of New York’s tragic toll in nursing homes is expected to be much higher.”
      • “Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo has angrily denied accusations that a March 25 state rule barring nursing homes from turning away coronavirus-positive patients contributed significantly to New York’s 33,000 COVID-19 deaths.”
        • Ed. opines: Cuomo's awful decisions have been on full display the whole time, and his approach now is to try to lie, lie, lie.
        • In fact, while the D.O.J. investigates, Cuomo is on a book tour for his self-congratulatory CV19 book, American Crisis, while accusing the D.O.J. of mounting a politically motivated investigation.
    • Infection fatality rate (I.F.R.) by age group:
      • First we have the number of infections by age group (the data are several weeks old as the C.D.C. does not declare counts confirmed until several weeks have passed):
      • Next we have the number of deaths by the same age group:
      • Assuming these samples represent the same cohort of individuals (a big assumption and probably only approximately true), and dividing deaths by cases, gives the I.F.R.:
      • For comparison, this scholarly article estimates the I.F.R. by age as “close to zero for children and younger adults but […] reaching 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85.”
        • Remember that I.F.R. is a crude measure, easily influenced by testing (or lack thereof) and false assignment of cause of death (died with CV19, not of CV19). Actual rate of death from contracting a desease is always less than I.F.R.
    • “New Evidence Suggests Better Treatment Is Contributing to Falling COVID-19 Fatality Rates.”
      • “Even after adjusting for age and comorbidities, researchers in New York and England found large improvements in patient survival.”
      • “‘Changes in demographics and severity of illness at presentation did not fully explain decreases in mortality seen over time,’ Horwitz and her collaborators note in the Journal of Hospital Medicine. ‘Even after risk adjustment for a variety of clinical and demographic factors, including severity of illness at presentation, mortality was significantly and progressively lower over the course of the study period.’”
      • The scholarly article is here.
    • “El Paso to Impose Second Lockdown as Local Hospitals Reach Capacity.”
      • “‘Our hospitals are at capacity. Our medical professionals are overwhelmed. If we don't respond, we will see unprecedented levels of deaths.’”
    • Ed. went to check on Sweden in the midst of the resurgence of the disease in Europe.  Ed. recalled that the rest of the Nordic countries blasted Sweden for not doing as well (see entry Jun. 3)

    New cases, Sweden and select EU countries,
    seven-day rolling average    .


    New deaths, Sweden and select EU countries,
    seven-day rolling average    .
      • The Nordic countries are still doing very well.  Including Sweden.
    • Related: and then ed. found this:

    Oct. 31:
    • “The Other Media Blackout: How can Americans use good sense about an epidemic about which they are fed false information?”  This well written and important opinion piece deserves wide dissemination.  Since it is behind a paywall, ed. will quote a little more liberally than he usually does.  Please read the whole thing if you can.  
      • “There is no conspiracy of silence in India. Confirmed Covid cases are reported as they are in the West, but reporters enthusiastically stress seroprevalence surveys that show the real infection rate to be a multiple of confirmed tests. Example: On Thursday, the Hindustan Times noted in its headline a 40% positive antibody rate from the latest survey of the Srinagar district. Only far down in the story did it indicate this was 25 times the ‘confirmed’ case count.”
      • “Unfortunately, because our press wasn’t in Mr. Stuppy’s science class, it doesn’t understand that while confirmed cases might be data, they aren’t a sample in any meaningful scientific sense.”
      • “Voluntary testing is inherently biased. Last month, a U.K. study should have put a stake in any delusions on this point. Relying on random, rather than patient-initiated, testing, the report estimated that daily new infections were running about nine times the official rate as of late September.”
      • “Our press this week reported, with hair on fire, that confirmed cases exceeded nine million. Would its hair be more aflame or less if it acknowledged true cumulative infections are likely between 50 million and 100 million?”
      • “The test-and-trace silver bullet, which epidemiologists once promoted, Dr. Fauci now admits is impractical because of a large number of asymptomatic cases. Germany, once a role model, admits it has been able to trace only 25% of confirmed cases, which probably means 5% of true cases.”
        • Ed. opines: only with overwhelmingly expensive and burdensome testing can you control a disease which can spread asymptomatically.  ‘Expensive and burdensome’ as in: test every single person every single day.  
      • “… Americans respond to information. Masks will go back on. The barhopping is being curbed. Some herd immunity may kick in to help with the winter surge. We battle the virus, though, while being fed a colossally distorted picture of the epidemic and its progress by an incompetent and sociopathic press.” [Emph.: ed.]
    • Ed. is seriously struggling to explain the Asian ability keep this thing in check.
      • Japan’s confirmed case rate and death rate are both running about 50 times below that of the U.S. (normalized by population). [Source: 91-DIVOC]
      • Malaysia is surging, but its case rate is still a factor of 10 less per population than that of the U.S.  It claims 249 deaths from the disease all-time.
      • Singapore got hammered early on, but now is below Japan in new confirmed cases and an astonishing 28 deaths all-time.
      • South Korea is out-performing Japan in new case rates, and has an astonishing 464 deaths all-time.
        • Ed. opines: societies vary greatly, but not that greatly.  Ed. cannot fathom how even the most fastidious nation-race could clean and disinfect and mask and socially distance itself this well.  There has to be a genetic component.
          • And that?  Well, that takes ed. to a very dark place concerning how -- and why -- this virus gained function in Wuhan, where there happens to be a C.C.P. virology lab.
          • (Do not blame Asians for this!!)
    • A link has been added to yesterday's entry about brain waves.

    Nov. 7:

    New confirmed cases and new deaths, E.U. and U.S., normalized
    by population. All data presented using 7-day moving average.
      • What can we see?  Europe skipped the mid-summer wave that rolled through the U.S.  
        1. Now the U.S. is seeing its highest rate of confirmed infections (1a, 1b, 1c), and yet deaths are still less than half the first wave, and below the second wave (for now) (1x, 1y, 1z).  
        2. But the E.U. is seeing cases dwarf the first wave (2a, 2c), and death rates exceeding the first wave (2x, 2z).
        3. New deaths in the E.U. are currently roughly double that of the U.S. per capita.
      • Inferences?
        1. The infection fatality ratio (I.F.R.) is dropping over time in the U.S. and E.U.  Compare 1x/1a with 1z/1c for the U.S.  Compare 2a/2x with 2c/2z for the E.U. for a rough gauge.
        2. The E.U.’s wave 2 is much, much more deadly than wave 3 in the U.S.
          • And those are the real stories.
    • Going further, we can compute a time-limited I.F.R. for any time period we wish.
      • The overall I.F.R. for the duration of the pandemic is first:

    Overall I.F.R. for U.S. and E.U., using the running sum of
    7-day averaged data for numerator and denominator.
      • But now let us compute the I.F.R.s for the three U.S. waves independently, as well as those of the E.U.

    Segmented I.F.R.s for U.S. and E.U.
        • Please note: even segmented, the late deaths from the previous wave creep into the I.F.R. for the graphed wave.  That is why the center graph drops for both regions.  But the effect is true for the right graphs, too.  
          • In particular, note the “instantaneous I.F.R.” is 0.9% in the U.S. and 1.2% in the E.U.  Judging from the trajectories of cases and deaths, there is justification to argue that that difference will widen over time.
    • It’s a gruesome Magic 8-Ball: “Heart inflammation from COVID-19 less common than thought.”
      • “Previously reported rates of myocarditis in COVID-19 patients ranged from 14% among recovered athletes to 60% in middle-aged and older recovered patients.”  The authors blamed the high estimate on small numbers of cadavers in previous studies.
      • “To get a clearer picture, the investigators analyzed autopsies of 277 people who died of COVID-19 in nine countries.  The rate of myocarditis in these patients was between 1.4% and 7.2%, the researchers found.”
      • Ed. opines: what about all the people with myocarditis who haven’t died (yet)?
    • Yes.  Next question.  “Clots, Strokes And Rashes. Is COVID-19 A Disease Of The Blood Vessels?”
      • “Dr. William Li, a vascular biologist, compares this lining to a freshly resurfaced ice skating rink before a hockey game on which the players and pucks glide smoothly along.  ‘When the virus damages the inside of the blood vessel and shreds the lining, that’s like the ice after a hockey game,’ says Li, a researcher and founder of the Angiogenesis Foundation. ‘You wind up with a situation that is really untenable for blood flow.’”
    • Related: “College Student Found Dead in Her Dorm in Indiana After Testing Positive for Coronavirus”
    • Some people are sick spreaders for a lonnnng time.  “Startling Case Study Finds Asymptomatic COVID-19 Carrier Who Shed Virus For 70 Days.”
      • “The new report should alert doctors and public health experts alike to the fact that people without symptoms and with weakened immune systems, such as cancer patients, can seemingly shed the SARS-CoV-2 virus for a really long time. In this case, even months.”
    • This is really cool.  “Nasal Spray Prevents Covid Infection in Ferrets, Study Finds.”
      • “A nasal spray that blocks the absorption of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has completely protected ferrets it was tested on, according to a small study released on Thursday by an international team of scientists.”
      • “The spray attacks the virus directly. It contains a lipopeptide, a cholesterol particle linked to a chain of amino acids, the building blocks of proteins. This particular lipopeptide exactly matches a stretch of amino acids in the spike protein of the virus, which the pathogen uses to attach to a human airway or lung cell.”
      • “Before a virus can inject its RNA into a cell, the spike must effectively unzip, exposing two chains of amino acids, in order to fuse to the cell wall. As the spike zips back up to complete the process, the lipopeptide in the spray inserts itself, latching on to one of the spike’s amino acid chains and preventing the virus from attaching.”
      • “‘It is like you are zipping a zipper but you put another zipper inside, so the two sides cannot meet,’ said Matteo Porotto, a microbiologist at Columbia University and one of the paper’s authors.”
        • The whole (short) article is worth a read.
    • “Ultrapotent COVID-19 vaccine designed via computer.”
      • “An innovative nanoparticle vaccine candidate for the pandemic coronavirus produces virus-neutralizing antibodies in mice at levels 10 times greater than is seen in people who have recovered from COVID-19 infections. Designed by scientists at the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle, the vaccine candidate has been transferred to two companies for clinical development.”
      • “Compared to vaccination with the soluble SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein, on which many leading COVID-19 vaccine candidates are based, the new nanoparticle vaccine produced 10 times more neutralizing antibodies in mice, even at a sixfold lower dose. The data also show a strong B-cell response after immunization, which can be critical for immune memory and a durable vaccine effect. When administered to a single nonhuman primate, the nanoparticle vaccine produced neutralizing antibodies targeting multiple different sites on the Spike protein. Researchers say this may ensure protection against mutated strains of the virus, should they arise. The Spike protein is part of the coronavirus infectivity machinery.”
    • What fresh hell is this?  “Danish Covid-19 mink variant could spark new pandemic, scientists warn.”
      • “Denmark, the world’s largest mink producer, said on Wednesday that it plans to cull more than 15 million of the animals, due to fears that a Covid-19 mutation moving from mink to humans could jeopardise future vaccines.  Announcing the cull, the country’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, said 12 people were already infected with the mutated virus and mink are now considered a public health risk, based on advice from the SSI.”

    Nov. 13:
    • In case you missed it: Breaking: Pfizer says vaccine is more than 90% effective.
    • Related: “A critical hurdle for Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine? Keeping it at 94 degrees below zero.”
      • “Pfizer has said it intends to seek an emergency use authorization from FDA within the next week, once it has a total of two months of safety data. That puts the vaccine on track to be authorized by FDA as early as December, the Wall Street Journal reports.”
      • “[I]t will take time before enough of the population receives the vaccine that herd immunity is reached, experts say. Roy Anderson, an epidemiologist and professor at Imperial College London, said that assuming the vaccine maintains its 90% effectiveness, at least 75% of the population will need to receive the shot to reach herd immunity.”
      • “For shipment and storage, the company has created thermal containers to safely transport the vaccines, which must be stored at a temperature of 94 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, NBC News reports. The vaccines will be packaged beneath dry ice and will be shipped via air to large distribution hubs nationwide.” [Emph.: ed.]
      • “After the vaccine is delivered, the company has said doses can be stored for up to six months in ultra-low temperature freezers, up to five days in a refrigeration unit, or up to 15 days in their original packaging with new dry ice, NBC News reports.” [Emph.: ed.]
      • “‘The cold chain is going to be one of the most challenging aspects of delivery of this vaccination,’ Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said. ‘This will be a challenge in all settings because hospitals even in big cities do not have storage facilities for a vaccine at that ultra-low temperature.’  That includes the Mayo Clinic, one of the biggest hospitals in the United States, which does not currently have the ability to store the vaccine at extremely low temperatures, Reuters reports.”
        • Ed. opines: are we really saying that this vaccine will not be fully injected and used up in 15 days after arrival at a hospital?  Really?
    • Related: “Russia Says Its Coronavirus Vaccine Sputnik V Shows Over 90% Efficacy.”
    • Related: “‘Serious adverse event’ that led Brazil to suspend Sinovac trial has ‘no relation‘ to coronavirus vaccine.”  The trial in Brazil of the Chinese vaccine is set to continue.
    • Meanwhile, the third (or second) wave: “Record Covid-19 Hospitalizations Strain System Again.”
      • “Hospitals could face greater challenges than earlier this year, as coronavirus surges widely and hits rural regions where resources are scarce.”
      • “The number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients reached 65,368, according to the Covid Tracking Project, passing the record set Tuesday for the highest number of hospitalizations since April. A spring surge in the Northeast pushed hospitalizations near 60,000. Hospitalizations hit a nearly identical peak again in late July, as the pandemic’s grip spread across the South and West.”

      • “More young people are among those newly infected, and they are less likely to need hospital care than the elderly. But as infections rise among the young, so does transmission to high-risk older co-workers and family, said Jennifer Nuzzo, lead epidemiologist for the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Testing Insights Initiative.”
        • Ed. will continue to be paranoid and vigilant. 
    • How does the coronavirus work?  Well, for starters, it binds to DNA in a cell using very specific cell receptors.  ACE inhibitors may raise the availability of ACE2 receptors in human cells.  SARS-CoV-2 needs those receptors (among other things) to enter a cell and reproduce: 
      • “The researchers in this study explain that SARS-CoV-2 can penetrate the cells of the host using ACE2, but they also need “type II transmembrane serine proteases (TMPRSS2)” which can prime their spike proteins to allow this entry. When the virus binds to the ACE2 using its spike protein, the former causes a conformational change in the protein. This can then be digested by the TMPRSS2. This digestion helps the viral envelope to fuse with the cell membrane and thus enter into the cell.”
      • “SARS-CoV-2 penetrates the cell through ACE2, and the increase of this receptor (due to the use of ACE inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers [ARBs]) may facilitate SARS-CoV-2 infection, which might increase the risk of developing severe and fatal SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, through upregulation of ACE2, ACE inhibitors/ARBs can exert anti-inflammatory and antioxidative effects, which may be beneficial in preventing ALI and ARDS.” [Emph.: ed.]
        • Well that doesn’t sound good.  Ed. takes an ACE inhibitor called telmisartan.
    • But then we have the fact that ACE inhibitors bind with the same receptors. 
      • From the same study as two bullets above:
        • “The team explains that raised levels of Angiotensin II can decrease the activity of ACE2 on the surface, as is seen in animal studies. They write that this is via an ‘AT1Rdependent internalization mechanism’. Losartan, however, can block this internalization. They write, ‘it remains unknown whether preventing ACE2 internalization would be effective at attenuating infections by SARS coronaviruses, and further studies are urgently needed to clarify this mechanism.’”
      • “Telmisartan for treatment of Covid-19 patients: an open randomized clinical trial. Preliminary report.”
        • “This interim analysis included 40 patients in telmisartan and 38 in control groups. CRP levels in the control and telmisartan groups were 51.1 [control]+/-44.8 mg/L vs 24.2 [telmisartan]+/-31.4 mg/L at day 5 (mean +/- SD; n=28 and n=32, p<0.05), and 41.6 [control]+/-47.6 mg/L vs 9.0 [telmisartan] +/-10.0 mg/L at day 8 (mean +/- SD; n=16 and n=13; p<0.05), respectively. Telmisartan treated patients had statistically significant lower time to discharge (log-rank test p=0.0124, median time: 15 days in control group vs 9 days in telmisartan group). Mortality at day 30 was 11.76% in control group vs 5.26% in telmisartan group (p=0.41). Conclusions. In this study, ARB telmisartan, a well-known inexpensive safe antihypertensive drug, administered in high doses, was superior to standard care demonstrating anti-inflammatory effects and improved morbidity in hospitalized patients infected with SARS -CoV-2.”
      • Ed. opines: Since President Trump didn't tout it, there's a good chance that the science will be done properly and the results will be fairly disseminated.
        • Ed. adds: ed.’s personal cardiologist strongly indicated to ed. that telmisartan is protective.
    • Let's check in on Wave 3, first in the U.S.
      • First, we note that the worst-hit states in Wave 3 participated only slightly in Wave 1 and hardly at all in Wave 2.  Interesting!

    New confirmed cases in U.S. states, normalized by population,
    with seven-day average. Source: 91-DIVOC .


    New deaths in U.S. states, normalized by population,
    with seven-day average.  Same highlighted states as above.
      • Ed opines: this thing is going to roll through.  You cannot hide forever.
    • Next, the E.U. and the U.S.
      • The E.U. and the U.S. are neck-and-neck in cases.

    New confirmed cases in E.U. and U.S., normalized by population,
    with seven-day average.
      • But the E.U. and the U.S. are most definitely not neck-and-neck in new deaths

    New deaths in E.U. and U.S., normalized by population,
    with seven-day average.
        • Ed opines: is anyone in the mainstream media alerting us to this significant disparity?
    • Ed received this in the daily bleat from the Wall Street Journal: “An Extra Covid Wildcard for Flying During Winter—De-icing: During snowstorms, planes can’t take off without it, but it means a period of reduced air circulation in the cabin for passengers and crew.”
    • And finally, from the "our garbage Media" file:
      • “LA Times Blames Seven COVID Deaths On Small Maine Wedding That Victims Did Not Attend.”
        • “The Los Angeles Times featured a story on Thursday about a wedding in Maine, which the CDC believes ‘likely’ caused a COVID-19 outbreak, to argue that people should reconsider their small holiday gatherings.
        • “‘If you want to know why public health officials are so nervous about how much worse the COVID-19 pandemic will get as the holiday season unfolds, consider what happened after a single, smallish wedding reception that took place this summer in rural Maine,’ the article states.”
        • “An official CDC report about the spread stated that none of the people who attended the reception and tested positive were even hospitalized.”
        • “Six of the seven deaths included in the tally occurred in a long-term care facility after a wedding guest passed the virus to their parent who also happened to be a healthcare worker in a nursing home. Despite experiencing ‘fever, chills, cough, myalgia, runny nose, and headache,’ the worker still worked for two days after the onset of their symptoms.  Three days after their symptoms manifested, the worker was tested but did not receive a positive result until five days after that. By then, universal testing was implemented at the care facility which resulted in at least 14 positive staff members (18.4 percent) and 24 residents (54.5 percent).” [Emph.: ed.]
        • “Six of the residents, all over 60 with underlying medical conditions, died following the outbreak.  The seventh death occurred in someone over the age of 75 who was hospitalized with the virus but did not attend the wedding.”
      • Ed. opines: ed. is no fan of people gathering in close quarters for any length of time.  BUT: when one person's actions are clearly so blatantly irresponsible, why ignore that and seek to blame the gathering?  The wedding clearly helped spread the disease, but the irresponsible healthcare worker (in an elder care facility, no less!) is much more directly responsible for six of the seven deaths.
    Nov. 20:
    • In case you missed it: Breaking: Pfizer says vaccine is more than 90% effective.
    • In case you missed it: “Moderna says its COVID-19 vaccine is nearly 95 percent effective.”
    • Nasal spray for protection: “Anti-COVID-19 nasal spray ‘ready for use in humans’.”
      • “A nasal spray that can provide effective protection against the COVID-19 virus has been developed by researchers at the University of Birmingham, using materials already cleared for use in humans.”
      • “A team in the university's Healthcare Technologies Institute formulated the spray using compounds already widely approved by regulatory bodies in the UK, Europe and the US. The materials are already widely used in medical devices, medicines and even food products.”
    • Related, see Nov. 7: “Nasal Spray Prevents Covid Infection in Ferrets, Study Finds.”
      • But apparently a different group and different formula:
    • Stop talking about antibodies.  Start talking about T cells: “Immunity to the coronavirus may last years, new research suggests.”
      • “The findings are likely to come as a relief to experts worried that immunity to the virus might be short-lived, and that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.”
      • “And the research squares with another recent finding: that survivors of SARS, caused by another coronavirus, still carry certain important immune cells 17 years after recovering.”
      • “The team tracked four components of the immune system: antibodies, B cells that make more antibodies as needed; and two types of T cells that kill other infected cells. The idea was to build a picture of the immune response over time by looking at its constituents.  ‘If you just look at only one, you can really be missing the full picture,’ Crotty said.”
        • And yet, that is exactly what so many journalists have done for months after readers of this blog learned about how T cells provide long-term immunity to SARS (see entry Jul. 16).  It is irresponsible to be so ignorant about the pandemic while informing the public about the pandemic.
    • “AI discovered an old arthritis drug that can help elderly people survive COVID-19.”
      • “The once-daily medicine, called baricitinib, was first identified as a potential treatment for the virus by BenevolentAI, a startup based in London.  The company used its AI software to comb through scientific literature for drugs that might block the infection process. The most promising treatment it discovered was baricitinib, which it predicted could stop the infection from entering lung cells.”
      • “Scientists from Imperial College London and Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet gave baricitinib to 83 COVID-19 patients with a median age of 81 who were being treated in hospitals across Italy and Spain.”
      • “They found that patients receiving baricitinib had a 71% reduction in mortality compared to the 83 people in the control group who had not taken the drug.”
      • “In addition, only 17% of the patients given baricitinib died or required a ventilator, compared to 35% of the patients who received only standard care.”
        • Small sample, but very encouraging improvement.
        • As a snotty aside, it is not an AI.  It is a modestly complex language processor most likely just searching a body of literature for keywords. “The company used its AI software to comb through scientific literature for drugs that might block the infection process.”
    • “Scientists: Major measles outbreaks likely because of COVID-19 lockdowns.”
      • “According to a paper published in the peer review journal Lancet, there is a very high likelihood of major measles outbreaks among children worldwide in 2021 — resulting in many unnecessary deaths — due to the shut downs imposed because of the panic over COVID-19.”
    • From the same source: “Study: Children are so immune to COVID-19 that even after extensive exposure they test negative.”
      • “A new study has now confirmed what the very early research had suggested, finding that even when children are repeatedly exposed to the COVID-19 virus, they not only develop no symptoms, they also test negative to the virus.”
    • How many educators have died of CV19?  In the U.S.?  Total? The N.Y. Post says about 300.
      • “[… The] woman was dead — one of an estimated nearly 300 school employees killed by the coronavirus in the U.S. since the outbreak took hold.”
      • Meanwhile, at CBS:
        • “It’s unclear how many teachers in the U.S. have become ill with COVID-19 since the new school year began, but Mississippi alone has reported 604 cases among school teachers and staff.  The news comes amid grim new data about COVID-19 cases in children: More than 500,000 kids in the U.S. have tested positive for the coronavirus since the pandemic began.”  [Emph.: ed.]
        • 0.03% of 50,000 is 15 school-aged deaths.  This is just scaremongering.  And it’s pretty disgusting.

    Source: Business Insider.
    • Related: “New data from Sweden show it’s safe to keep schools open, but Biden’s Covid-19 advisors seem more interested in shutting down.”  Warning: the conservative site is anti-Biden, but the study is real (although the preprint has not yet been peer-reviewed). Quoting directly from Instapundit's John Tierney:
      • “A new — and impressively huge — study of a natural experiment in Sweden shows that closing schools does practically nothing to save lives or stop the spread of Covid. Swedish economists compared Covid infection rates and medical records for all the parents (hundreds of thousands) at senior high schools, which went online during the spring pandemic, against the parents at junior high schools, which stayed open and did not encourage students or teachers wear face masks.”
      • “The parents whose children kept going to school were no more likely to be treated or hospitalized for Covid than were the parents of the online students. And the teachers who remained in the classroom had lower rates of infection and hospitalization than did the parents.”
      • “A study of this quality ought to be the final word on the subject. But as I write at City Journal, it doesn’t fit ‘the science’ that’s guiding Joe Biden’s Covid advisory board […].”
        • It seems that children, in addition to being very tolerant of the bug, don’t seem to spread it very well.
        • But note that the study can offer no guidance for older senior-high students and teachers, since they were all schooling at home.
    • An analysis regarding Korea's superior performance: (See entry, Oct. 31, which stated “South Korea is out-performing Japan in new case rates, and has an astonishing 464 deaths all-time.”)  Ed. will summarize the factors, but readers are encouraged to read the whole thing.
      • Immediate identification of the threat as deadly serious.
      • Rapid, continuous, and maintained massive testing capability.  “Less than one month after the virus was identified […] half a million people were tested every day; they still are.”
      • Intrusive isolation, contact tracing and smartphone apps, mask mandates and fines.
      • Effective government communication about its plan of action and what it expected from citizens.
      • Citizens’ Trust in the government to make rational choices.
      • “A strong sense of collective discipline.” Or, the good of the many outweigh my desire for freedom.
      • The author concludes with this thought, which ed. heartily endorses: 
        • “In the United States and in Europe, we are far less unified culturally and far more quarrelsome, including when it comes to government scientific advice; consequently, we pay for the politicization of the pandemic with our lives. When a vaccine appears, it will probably represent a triumph of Western scientific excellence, but it’s just as likely that South Korea will inoculate its population before we do. The pandemic reveals something surprising in Western civilization—we increasingly doubt the scientific progress that we invented, while Eastern civilizations now embrace it.”


    Copyright 2020 by Journey Man
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    1 comment:

    1. huhMay 31, 2020 at 4:32 PM

      Herd immunity to Sar-Cov-2 may never be achievable, but until herd immunity to TDS is achieved it will never be possible to look at anything he has touted with clear eyes. -TB

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